波音公司漫长的恢复之路 | Long Road To Recovery For Boeing

一年似乎是很长一段时间，但对于波音公司来说，今年在航空航天领域中必定是永恒的一年：自2018年以来波音受严重事故的影响一蹶不振，但他们有可能在今年从这些低迷和挫折中缓慢复苏。

A year may seem like a long time in politics, but for Boeing, two years in aerospace must be an eternity as it begins the slow recovery from the unparalleled series of setbacks, accidents and downturns that have struck it since 2018.

波音737MAX在2018年10月发生第一次事故，但在此之前的范堡罗国际航展上，波音表示其最大的挑战是如何满足其单通道飞机产品不断增长的需求。而且当时波音正在疯狂研究他们新中型飞机（NMA）的方案，NMA方案本来很有希望在2019年推出。

At the Farnborough International Airshow two years ago, before its world was upended by the first of two fatal 737 MAX accidents in October 2018, Boeing’s biggest challenges concerned how to meet surging demand for its new single-aisle derivative family. At the time, the company furiously was studying the new midmarket airplane (NMA) amid seemingly positive prospects for a 2019 launch.

与此同时，波音也准备开始进行波音777X的飞行测试，并计划对波音767和787进行增产。最终，波音公司以673架的确认订单和承诺订单结束了2018年的范堡罗航展，其中大部分是波音737，此外还有超过100架波音787、波音777和波音747货机。航展上波音和巴航工业还展示了详细的合并计划。

The company simultaneously was gearing up for the start of 777X flight tests and planning for production increases on the 767 and 787. Ultimately, Boeing ended the 2018 air show with 673 orders and commitments—the bulk of them for 737s, along with a total of more than 100 787s, 777s and 747 freighters. The event also provided an occasion for Boeing and Embraer to detail their merger plans. 

今年转眼又到了新一届范堡罗航展的时候，但是两年前那个旧世界却已经离我们远去。在这两年里，波音737MAX7从巅峰跌至谷底，正好象征了波音公司在这两年的命运。两年前，波音737MAX7是2018范堡罗航展上的明星之一，其原型机1E001号在航展敏捷和安静的飞行表演让人们印象深刻。而到了2020年7月，同一架飞机被用于波音737MAX系列的重新取证试飞，旨在希望终结该系列飞机16个月的停飞旅程。

But now, in what would be another Farnborough Airshow month in a normal even-numbered year, how far away that old world is. Perhaps nothing symbolizes the company’s fall from grace better than the fate of its 737-7 development aircraft, 1E001. Two years ago, it was one of the stars of the 2018 show, impressing crowds with its agile flying display and quiet fly-pasts. Fast-forward to July 2020, and the same aircraft is being used for recertification flights aimed at ultimately returning the MAX to service after an unprecedented 16-month grounding.

所以现在应该怎么办？波音公司最受欢迎的产品被搁置，为应对由新冠疫情大流行引起的市场崩溃，使得宽体机的生产被削减，以及与巴航工业的合作也中止了。如果波音要稳定公司的业务，将比以往任何时候都更加依赖其国防领域的业务，虽然该业务只占该公司总营业额的30％。

So what now? With Boeing’s most popular product sidelined, production of widebodies slashed in response to the market collapse triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Embraer deal dead and its product development strategy in disarray, the company is retrenching. While Boeing steadies the ship, it also is leaning more heavily than ever on its defense business, which contributes more than 30% of the organization’s overall turnover.

就其财务而言，波音公司正在进入一个未知的领域，而且肯定距离其股东和其他利益相关者在2020年的期待还很远。

In terms of its finances, Boeing is entering uncharted territory and certainly is far from where stakeholders thought it would be at the start of 2020.

3月份，波音要求从美国政府获得超过600亿美元的援助，震惊了美国金融界和政界。这些援助主要是为本公司提供的，也有向其他供应链上的OEM和国防领域承包商提供的资金支持，总共约有17000个直接和间接的供应商企业。

In March, Boeing stunned the financial world and Washington when it asked for more than $60 billion in federally backed assistance—mostly for itself but also for the roughly 17,000 direct and indirect suppliers that feed into the OEM and prime defense contractor’s supply chain.

波音总裁兼首席执行官David Calhoun在保证“资金使用透明和支持波音的供应链”的同时，还指出本次新冠疫情提供了一个解决多年来困扰该行业问题的机会。

While pledging “transparency and support for the supply chain that supports Boeing,” President and CEO David Calhoun also points out that COVID-19 presents an opportunity not to be missed to fix issues that have plagued the industry for years. 

他说：“我认为，我们行业中最麻烦的问题是供应链的管理和供应链的不稳定。如果没有本次疫情的影响，我不知道这种问题是否会很快得到更正。而现在有了病毒的影响，我们就有机会重新设计生产线和供应链，并有机会再次走在前列。”

 “I would argue that the more troublesome problem in our industry was the supply constraints and the instability of the supply chain,” he says. “Without a virus, I don’t know if that was going to get fixed anytime soon. With a virus, you have an opportunity to reengineer lines and reengineer the supply chain and get ahead of the curve.” 

波音737MAX在9月重新进入市场已经是看起来比较现实的事情，波音的重点仍然是需要努力交储大量已存储的波音737，同时慢慢恢复该机在华盛顿州伦顿工厂的新机生产。尽管目前在这些方面取得了一些进展，但波音仍需要准备迎接更多的阻力。即使在接下来的两个月内波音737MAX的重新认证被批准，波音也知道对于大多数航空公司而言，要接受大量已停飞的波音737MAX仍将是一个挑战。波音仍迫切需要交付飞机以恢复现金流。

With an initial return to service for the MAX in September now looking increasingly realistic, the company’s focus remains fixed on efforts to begin delivering the huge inventory of stored 737s while slowly restoring production of new aircraft at its Renton, Washington, facility. Despite signs of progress on these fronts, Boeing is bracing for more headwinds. Even if certification is approved within the next two months, the manufacturer knows it will be challenging for most airlines to accept the grounded MAXs in significant numbers. Deliveries are needed urgently to restore Boeing’s cash flow.

Calhoun表示：“当我们经历新冠疫情的浪潮时，世界各地正在研发病毒的疫苗，人们已经开始从对病毒的恐惧中恢复过来，我们将回到原来的状态。全球贸易未来也不会停止，全球经济相互依存也不会结束，世界上日益壮大的中产阶级仍会希望航空旅行。”

 “When we’re through the COVID waves, vaccines are widely distributed around the world and people have begun to recover from the fear of the virus, we’ll be right back to where we were,” Calhoun says. “Global trade will not stop, global economic interdependence will not end, and the growing middle class in the world will still want to travel.” 

至于何时能恢复正常的飞机生产率，“在波音目前的情况下，可能需要三年也可能需要五年”，他指出。

To get back to normal production rates, “in Boeing’s case it might be three, it might be five years,” he notes.

除尚未交付的波音737MAX 10之外，其他波音737MAX的市场份额也在加速下降，波音也暂停了其产品的开发研究。有波音内部人士告诉《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》，他们可能要花五到六年的时间才能推出下一代单通道系列客机，由于波音737MAX现在的远景预期不佳，因此下一代单通道客机将是下一个关注重点。

Beyond the 737-10 and in spite of the MAX losing market share at an accelerated pace, Boeing has hit the pause button on its product-development studies. Company insiders tell Aviation Week it is likely to be five or six years before the company will commit to the launch of a next-generation single-aisle family, which is now the next logical focus for its efforts given the diminished long-term prospects of the MAX.

回顾过去，波音在2020年初决定不继续推进NMA的决定目前尚不知影响如何，但其前景仍然是不确定的，特别是在时间和技术方面。

While in retrospect, the company’s early-2020 decision not to proceed with the NMA was a blessing in disguise, the path forward remains uncertain, particularly in terms of timing and technology.

有很多东西需要波音公司的产品战略负责人深思。 波音明白他们已经将NMA市场的下段部分“割让“给了空客A321XLR；而且一旦波音737MAX重新上市，波音就必须做出关键决策，以避免2030年代时在单通道飞机市场上将更多的选择权让给欧洲竞争对手。

Boeing’s product strategy leaders have much to ponder. The company knows it has effectively ceded the lower segment of the NMA market to the Airbus A321XLR and that once the MAX is back in the air, key decisions must be made to avoid potentially losing the future single-aisle sector to more sustainable options from its European competitor in the 2030s.

这条消息是Guy Norris, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno和Jens Flottau在Flight Paths Forward发表文章的摘要。 从完整文章可获得有关波音公司财务状况、波音737MAX的重新认证进度、有关波音777X中首款机型的测试和认证，以及其他详细信息。

This is an abbreviated version of an article by Guy Norris, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno and Jens Flottau that appeared in Flight Paths Forward. Get details of Boeing’s finances, the progress of MAX’s recertification, the test and certification of the first 777X derivative and more in the full article.