Embraer Sees Demand For 10,900 Sub-150-Seat Aircraft; Eyes Freighter Conversion Program
Embraer believes there will be a market for 10,900 new aircraft in the up-to-150-seat size over the next 20 years.
The Brazilian OEM issued its 20-year commercial market outlook Nov. 15 at the Dubai Airshow, saying those new aircraft sales could be worth $650 billion.
Key factors shaping future demand for travel and airliners are sustainability, digitalization and regionalization, Embraer Commercial VP marketing Rodrigo Silva e Souza said.
“We see a smaller, more profitable and more sustainable industry post-COVID,” he said. A major driver of the smaller market will be global GDP falling from 2.8% to 2.6%, Embraer believes.
“The industry is more focused on profitability and there is no room for low margins anymore. That will lead to a right-sizing movement,” Souza said.
The Embraer forecast pegs a global return to 2019 passenger demand levels, measured in RPKs, to 2024.
Embraer believes the type of new regional aircraft needed by 2040 will comprise 8,640 jets and 2,260 turboprops. Highest annual RPK growth rates of 4.2% will be seen in Asia-Pacific, China and Latin America. Other growth rates will be: Africa, 3.8%; Middle East, 3.6%; CIS, 3.5%; Europe, 2.3%; and North America, 2%.
Most regional jet deliveries will take place in North America (2,710 units/31.4%), while most turboprop deliveries will take place in Asia-Pacific and China (900/39.8%).
Embraer also said it sees a big demand for small freighters and plans to decide on launching a passenger-to-freighter conversion program for its 190- and 195-E1 jet next year. The aircraft would carry around 14 tons of cargo with a range of up to 2,000nm and the development program would be around 24 months from launch.