European aviation continued to expand through the first quarter of 2026, but the industry is entering the peak summer season facing mounting uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, fuel market volatility and uneven recovery patterns across the region.
The latest data from ACI Europe and IATA shows passenger demand remained resilient in March despite the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February—although airlines and airports are increasingly warning that the second half of the year remains difficult to predict.
Passenger traffic across Europe’s airport network rose 3.8% year-on-year in March, broadly in line with February’s 4.2% growth rate, according to ACI Europe. Airports in the EU+, including the EU, EEA, Switzerland and the UK, posted 4.1% growth, while airports in the rest of Europe saw growth slow to 2.6%.
“Overall, the first month of the Middle East war has once again highlighted the resilience of demand for air transport in the face of another major geopolitical shock,” ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec said in mid-May. “Many European airports lost direct connectivity to the region, but those traffic flows connecting onward to Asia rapidly adapted through alternative direct and indirect routings.”
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The transatlantic market remained particularly strong, while some Europe-Asia traffic shifted toward direct services as Middle Eastern hub connectivity was disrupted. IATA says Europe-Asia traffic surged 29.3% year-on-year in March as airlines and passengers rerouted around affected Middle Eastern airspace.
European airlines recorded 7.5% passenger traffic growth in March, making the region the second-largest contributor to global passenger growth behind Asia Pacific carriers. International traffic for European airlines rose 7.7%, while load factors climbed 3.4 percentage points to 81.4%.
However, within Europe, performance remained uneven. Italy and Spain continued to outperform larger markets with traffic growth of 4.8% and 3.9%, respectively, while Germany, the UK and France lagged behind the regional average. ACI Europe attributed part of that weaker performance to higher aviation taxes.
London Heathrow retained its position as Europe’s busiest airport in March, handling 6.64 million passengers and posting 6.9% growth. Istanbul Airport and Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen recorded the strongest growth among Europe’s major hubs at 7.7% and 7.2%, respectively.
Despite continued growth, industry executives remain cautious about the outlook beyond summer. “Looking at the peak summer months ahead of us, we do not—for now—expect a contraction of passenger volumes, unless we end up facing significant jet fuel shortages,” Jankovec says. “However, past the peak summer months, the traffic outlook is effectively a black box for the industry. It all hinges on geopolitics and the fallout of the oil crisis.”
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