Analysis: Record Transatlantic Summer Awaits

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Credit: Santi Rodriguez/Alamy Stock Photo

The number of two-way flights between North America and Europe is poised to exceed 10,000 per week for the first time as airlines operate a record transatlantic summer season, analysis by Routes has found.

The milestone will be reached this week, commencing June 10, if current schedules hold, and the figure will remain above the 10,000-mark until early September, according to data provided by OAG Schedules Analyser. The week beginning July 8 is expected be the busiest week, with about 10,373 flights.

Moreover, capacity across the North Atlantic is poised to hit record levels this summer, with an estimated 77.36 million roundtrip seats available between late March and late October. This marks a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a growth of 5.8% compared to 2019 levels.

Further analysis of the schedules data reveals that the week starting July 8 is slated to see the largest-ever capacity between North America and Europe, totaling almost 2.82 million roundtrip seats. However, July 20 is currently scheduled to be the busiest day ever, with 409,300 two-way seats available. The previous daily high was achieved on Aug. 18, 2019, when carriers offered a combined 387,275 seats.

Delta Air Lines is scheduled to be the largest operator of North America-Europe capacity during summer 2024 with an 11.94% share of the market, marginally ahead of United Airlines on 11.87%. American Airlines (9.1%), British Airways, (8.1%) and Air Canada (7.2%) complete the top five.

Compared with summer 2023, Delta’s scheduled transatlantic seat capacity is up by 2.1% this year, while the likes of American, Air Canada, Lufthansa, Air France, Virgin Atlantic and Turkish Airlines are all offering more capacity year on year. Of the top 10 operators of North America-Europe flights, only United, British Airways and KLM are set to offer marginally fewer seats than in summer 2023.

The busiest route by capacity and flight frequencies will link New York John F. Kennedy (JFK) and London Heathrow (LHR), accounting for some 2.4 million seats and more than 4,700 roundtrip flights across the season. By mid-July, there are scheduled to be in excess of 84,000 two-way weekly seats between JFK and LHR across 23 roundtrip flights per day.

Completing the top-five busiest airport pairs this summer is JFK-Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG), Los Angeles-LHR, Montreal-CDG and Chicago O’Hare-LHR.

The ongoing expansion of the transatlantic market is accompanied by a surge of new routes. Among the services launched is Air France’s link between Paris and Phoenix, which started on May 23, marking the first nonstop flights between France and the U.S. city. Service is three times per week during the summer season using Boeing 787-9s.

Lufthansa has also added two new U.S. points from Frankfurt, opening nonstops to Minneapolis-Saint Paul and Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina. Fellow German carrier Condor also launched operations to San Antonio in May, marking the Texas city’s only transatlantic route.

Other new routes for the summer season include American Airlines’ flights from Philadelphia to Copenhagen, Naples, Italy, and Nice, France; Air Canada’s flights linking Montreal with Madrid and Stockholm; JetBlue Airways’ JFK-Edinburgh, Scotland, service; and United Airlines’ operations between Chicago and Athens, Greece.

Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) is also introducing flights between Copenhagen Airport and Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport from June 17 as it prepares to leave Star Alliance for rival SkyTeam, while Denver will become Turkish Airlines’ 14th U.S. destination from June 11 once operations from Istanbul Airport commence.

In total, there are more than 40 regular scheduled routes between North America and Europe during summer 2024 that did not operate during any of the previous five summer seasons.

David Casey

David Casey is Editor in Chief of Routes, the global route development community's trusted source for news and information.