Airbus's Geert Lemaire.
Africa’s aviation sector continues to expand, but the continent’s biggest challenge remains its significant connectivity gaps. That was the key message from Airbus Market Intelligence & Consulting Director Geert Lemaire during AviaDev Africa 2026, held in Botswana from June 10–12.
Lemaire presented Airbus’ latest analysis of unserved air routes, mapping untapped city pairs to, from and within Africa to identify where latent demand could support new nonstop services.
The report covers October 2024 to September 2025 and draws on passenger traffic data from Sabre combined with schedule and capacity information from OAG. According to Lemaire, the reporting period reflects the time required to collect and process detailed industry data.
The data showed that despite strong economic integration, urbanization, growing tourism and expanding trade links, many city pairs across Africa remain unserved or underserved.
The top ten unserved international routes to and from sub-Saharan Africa show little change from last year. London-Harare, Zimbabwe, remains the most significant unserved route, followed by Johannesburg-Mumbai and Dubai-Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The remaining most unserved international routes are Lagos, Nigeria-Toronto; Guangzhou, China-Lagos; Douala, Cameroon-Dubai; Dubai-Harare; Brussels-Cape Town; London-Zanzibar, Tanzania; and Brussels-Johannesburg.
“We actually have quite a number of new unserved city pairs popping up, the most important of which is Guangzhou-Lagos,” Lemaire said, noting that passenger traffic is rebounding strongly as post-pandemic travel patterns normalize.
He also highlighted significant growth on routes such as Dubai-Kinshasa and Brussels-Cape Town, both of which continue to lack direct air services despite increasing demand.
Some previously unserved routes have disappeared from the rankings after airlines introduced nonstop flights. The most notable example is Entebbe, Uganda-London, launched by Uganda Airlines.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Within sub-Saharan Africa, Airbus identified Cape Town-Lagos; Dakar, Senegal-Libreville, Gabon; Abuja, Nigeria-Nairobi, Kenya; Bamako, Mali-Brazzaville, Congo; and Dakar-Nairobi as the region’s leading unserved city pairs.
However, progress in expanding intra-African connectivity remains slow. In 2025, sub-Saharan Africa had 728 routes operating at least three times per week, a benchmark Airbus uses to measure meaningful business connectivity. That represented a net increase of only 11 routes compared with the previous year.
“What are we doing here? 11 routes in this massive region is really nothing,” Lemaire said. “We need to be more ambitious.”
For comparison, he noted that sub-Saharan Africa has between 400 and 500 fewer air routes than Latin America despite covering a larger geographic area.
Airbus nevertheless remains optimistic about the continent’s long-term prospects. The company forecasts passenger traffic across Africa’s major markets will grow by more than 5% annually over the next two decades, effectively doubling every 15 years.
Lemaire urged airlines to adopt a long-term approach to fleet planning and pointed to the Airbus A321XLR as a potential aircraft type for network expansion.
“The aircraft’s extended range and lower operating costs make it suitable for launching thinner long-haul routes and increasing frequencies without excessive capacity risk,” Lemaire said.
He concluded by saying, “Commercial air transport is a dynamic industry. We need to act swiftly in the short term, think long term and build flexibility into our fleets to capture opportunities when they come. The future is all about growth—and for Africa, that future is now.”
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