Airports Council International (ACI) World projects global commercial air traffic will total 9.8 billion passengers in 2025 and exceed 10 billion passengers in 2026, but growth is uneven across regions, according to the organization’s latest forecast.
The projected 2025 passenger total would be up 3.7% over 9.4 billion passengers in 2024, when traffic recovered to pre-pandemic levels. International traffic is growing at more than twice the rate of domestic traffic, according to ACI World.
Notably, North America passenger traffic is expected to be flat year-over-year in 2025, as the U.S. domestic market contracts and domestic traffic in “core” European countries continues to be below pre-pandemic levels.
Globally, international traffic (comprising 44% of total passengers) is expected to increase 5.3% year-over-year to 4.3 billion passengers in 2025, while domestic traffic (comprising 56% of total passengers) is projected to grow 2.4% year-over-year to 5.5 billion travelers.
ACI World noted that traffic growth varies between emerging and mature markets. “Emerging aviation markets such as Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America are driving growth, supported by rising demand and a growing presence of low-cost carriers,” the organization said. “In contrast, advanced aviation markets—including parts of East Asia, Europe and North America—face a more uncertain outlook amid geopolitical tensions, demographic shifts (such as aging in some regions) and changes in traveler behavior (such as uncertainty in travel and visa policies).
“Overall, the global aviation market is expanding, but its trajectory remains sensitive to geopolitical events, macroeconomic conditions and region-specific headwinds,” ACI said.
Mature Markets
Passenger traffic in North America is forecast to be flat year-over-year in 2025, totaling 2.1 billion. ACI noted the U.S. domestic market contracted 2% in the first half (H1) of 2025 versus H1 2024, while international traffic for the six-month period rose 1% year-over-year. The North America outlook “remains uncertain, shaped by visa rules, travel restrictions and trade policies,” ACI said. “Leading indicators suggest a weaker second half of 2025, though it is unclear whether this is temporary or part of a longer-term shift.”
While passenger traffic in Europe is expected to grow 3.6% year-over-year in 2025 to 2.5 billion, “international travel is driving growth, while domestic volumes remain more moderate,” ACI reported. “Southern Europe—led by Spain and Italy—outperforms due to strong tourism demand. However, domestic travel across core markets remains below 2019 levels, as rail gains ground in Germany, France and the UK. Broader headwinds include geopolitical tensions, aging demographics and trade frictions.”
Led by strong growth in Southeast Asia, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow 5.6% year-over-year in 2025 to 3.6 billion passengers. However, ACI noted: “East Asia faces a more cautious long-term outlook. Overcapacity, weak domestic consumption, policy uncertainty and demographic decline weigh on prospects, alongside geopolitical frictions such as U.S. tariffs that affect trade and tourism.”
Emerging Markets
Africa has the highest expected 2025 growth rate across all regions, with ACI forecasting traffic will rise 9.4% year-over-year to 273 million passengers. “The market showed strong momentum in the first half of 2025, led by growth in northern African markets,” the organization said. “While structural challenges persist—such as limited intra-regional connectivity, infrastructure gaps and complex regulations—positive drivers include rising middle-class demand [and] expanding tourism.”
ACI expects the Middle East to total 466 million passengers in 2025, up 5.9% year-over-year. “Stable volumes are supported by investment in infrastructure, growing fleets and expanding tourism flows,” the organization said. “Still, the risk of regional escalation threatens airspace access, traveler confidence and traffic performance beyond the second half of 2025.”
The Latin America–Caribbean region is projected to reach 789 million passengers in 2025, a 4.1% year-over-year increase. “Growth is being fueled by leisure travel demand, low-cost carrier expansion and improved intra-regional connectivity,” ACI said. “Continued airport infrastructure development and fiscal policy adjustments will be key to sustaining momentum.”
Mid-Term Forecast
ACI expects global passenger traffic to continue steadily growing over the second half of the decade. The organization projects global traffic will reach 10.2 billion passengers in 2026, 10.6 billion in 2027, 11 billion in 2028, 11.4 billion in 2029 and 11.8 billion in 2030.
While global passenger traffic exceeded 2019 levels in 2024, the pandemic set back growth. In 2019, ACI had expected global traffic to reach 11.4 billion annual passengers by 2024—a level now not expected until 2029.
“As air travel demand continues its upward trajectory, the global picture remains one of growth tempered by regional disparities and external risks,” ACI said. “While international traffic provides strong momentum, sustaining this trajectory will depend on infrastructure investment, policy alignment and resilience to geopolitical and economic uncertainties.”
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