Replacement Demand Drives European Airline Fleet Requirements

Slow economic growth and global trade uncertainty created by new U.S. tariffs are very real threats to Europe’s airline industry. The first half of the year went well for most carriers, as most bookings were already in place, but forward bookings for the second half will be key in helping them determine future fleet plans. Even in a scenario of slower growth or recession, demand for replacement aircraft will be high enough for the region to contribute its share to sustaining manufacturers’ production plans. A relatively large portion of the current fleet at Europe’s big three airline groups—Air France-KLM, International Airlines Group and Lufthansa—needs to be renewed in the coming years. Business aviation demand will be driven mainly by ultra-long-range jets, light jets and single-engine turboprops.

The European in-service fleet (excluding Russia) is expected to grow to nearly 10,000 by 2034 from almost 7,500 aircraft at the end of 2025. The in-service fleet is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%, which is above the global average of 3.1%. The narrowbody in-service fleet is expected to increase by more than 50% over the coming decade, helped by deliveries of Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX aircraft.

Europe is forecast to take delivery of more than 1,500 aircraft between 2026 and 2028. About 85% of the deliveries are likely to be narrowbody aircraft as European carriers start to replace some legacy aircraft and look to grow. Nearly 200 new-build widebodies are also expected to enter service, finally allowing the legacy European Airbus A340s and Boeing 777s to be retired.

More than 400 business jets, led by ultra-long-range and light jets, and almost 150 business turboprop aircraft are forecast to be delivered to European operators in 2026-28. The Pilatus PC-12 is expected to see the most deliveries, at over 40 units, closely followed by the Daher-Socata TBM 900 and Embraer Phenom 300, at 30 each. Of the ultra-long-range jets, the Bombardier Global 7500/8000 is forecast to have the highest number of deliveries, with almost 30 aircraft, closely followed by Gulfstream’s 600 and G700, with around 25 each.