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New economic growth regions and splintering tourism streams are two drivers of growth in the regional jet sector, Embraer believes.
The Brazilian airframer’s latest 20-year market forecast for the sub-150-seat jet market, released ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, estimates there will be a total of 8,500 orders in this market segment through 2045 worth $650 billion. Replacements will account for 53% of orders, with 47% for market growth.
Embraer sees those 8,500 150-seat jets orders being broken down geographically as: 2,670 (31%) in North America; 1,870 (22%) in Europe/CIS; 1,470 (17%) in China; 1,050 (13%) in Asia Pacific; 740 (9%) in Latin America; 370 (4%) in Africa; and 330 (4%) in the Middle East.
"The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centers," Embraer president and CEO commercial aviation Arjan Meijer said.
Simultaneously, tourism flows are fragmenting. “Travelers are increasingly looking beyond traditional, congested gateway cities in search of smaller, unique destinations.
“These forces are reshaping the geography of demand. To succeed, airlines must deliver better connectivity across a broader, more diverse network of destinations. This requires a departure from relying solely on large, high-capacity jets. A mixed-fleet strategy is essential to match capacity with new and emerging passenger travel flows.”
The forecast highlights new industrial developments that are triggering regional air transport growth higher than the norm. It points to the creation of giga-factories and other industrial projects in European regions that are attracting industrial eco-systems to support them. “As entire value chains become concentrated around these emerging production centers, the movement of executives, technicians, customers, investors, and service providers intensifies, creating sustained demand for air connectivity.”
One example has been the creation of Northvolt’s gigafactory investment in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, which began battery production in 2021. As a result, Northern Sweden has emerged as one of Europe’s fastest-growing industrial regions, with the scale of the investment transforming Skellefteå and strengthening economic activity across neighboring cities like Umeå and Luleå. Between 2021 and 2026, the estimated number of flights grew at an average annual rate of 12% in Skellefteå, 11% in Umeå, and 10% in Luleå.
Similarly, the Hungarian government designated the city of Debrecen as a future European hub for electric vehicle and battery manufacturing. German vehicle manufacturer BMW’s new €2 billion ($2.3 billion) plant serves as the anchor investment and has attracted an array of suppliers and battery manufacturers. To accommodate the accompanying increase in air travel, Debrecen airport is planning a new runway and expanding its terminal.
Carriers serving Debrecen, however, are deploying larger aircraft rather than adding new flights, Embraer noted, leading to a reduction in the number of movements.
Embraer has long argued that opening up and expanding new or thinner sectors require aircraft smaller than main narrowbody types. Smaller jets, with their lower trip costs, can operate more frequent schedules, the manufacturer argues.
“As economic activity becomes increasingly organized around regional growth engines, demand for intraregional air service is likely to expand,” Embraer said.
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