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Boeing 737 MAX family
SEATTLE—Global air traffic growth in 2026 will be more than halved compared to earlier predictions because of the Iran war, Boeing says, though the company forecasts a faster‑than‑usual recovery that will return passenger traffic to its long‑term growth trajectory by the end of 2028.
“We were looking at 6% growth in February before the conflict in the Middle East began, and that reset the expectations for the rest of this year,” says Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. The company now expects year‑on‑year passenger growth, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, to be about 2.3% for 2026.
Detailing Boeing’s 2026 Commercial Market Outlook, Hulst says that while the timing and extent of the war remain uncertain, “We’re confident enough to say that in 2026, while we will still see growth globally, it will be about half, or even a little bit less, than what we expected going into 2026.”
Cargo traffic has rebounded slightly faster than passenger traffic, he notes, and Boeing continues to expect full‑year cargo growth to remain positive relative to 2025 totals. Jet fuel prices are “the main culprit,” Hulst adds, with forecasts calling for a 70% year‑on‑year increase over 2025. By the same measure, airline net profits are expected to fall by $23 billion compared to 2025, while the global economy will see a 2.2% decline.
Despite a sluggish 2026, Hulst says, “Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028. We’re saying the 2026 challenges and headwinds will be offset by faster growth in 2027 and 2028 to regain that long‑term trend instead of two or three years of lost growth like we saw during the pandemic.”
Boeing’s longer‑term 20‑year forecast calls for 43,625 aircraft deliveries. China will take 21% of those, while Eurasia will take 20%. North America, and South and Southeast Asia are expected to take 19% each, with the Middle East and Africa accounting for 10%. The remainder will be split almost evenly between Latin America, Oceania and Northeast Asia.
Of the nearly 44,000 aircraft delivered, Boeing predicts 33,545 will be single‑aisle jets, 7,715 will be widebodies and 930 will be production freighters. Regional jets will account for 1,435 deliveries. “We think the jet fleet roughly doubles in the next 20 years with a growth rate of exactly 3%,” Hulst says.
Describing the outlook as “very robust demand,” he notes the size of the aging, replaceable fleet. “This is really the closest we’ve ever been to projecting 50% demand of new deliveries for growth, and half of the airplanes that we and our competitors deliver over the next 20 years will be for replacement.”
Today, only 32%—less than a third—of the global fleet is made up of current‑generation or new‑generation aircraft. Over the next two decades, the fleet will grow from 28,000 to roughly 50,000 aircraft. By 2045, about 92% of the global fleet will be new‑generation aircraft, meaning types currently in or about to enter production.
Despite plans by Airbus, Boeing and Embraer to increase output, the industry continues to lag overall market demand. “Last year as an industry—and I don’t really want to pat ourselves on the back—we delivered about 25% more aircraft than we delivered in 2024,” Hulst says. “That’s great news in terms of progress and momentum, but the issue is global passenger traffic was 10% higher at the end of last year than it was before the pandemic.”
He continues: “Our target wasn’t getting back to 2018 or 2019 production levels; it is keeping up with demand in the marketplace. And we’re still— even with that growth last year—250 jets short of what we produced in our best year. And then 100 jets short again of the growth that occurred between 2018 and 2025 in terms of passenger market expansion.
“Last year, we essentially grew the deficit of the supply‑demand imbalance by about 350 aircraft. The good news is we’re getting closer. The challenging news is we’re still accruing that debt as we stay below pre‑pandemic production levels,” he adds.
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