Airbus set to delay A350 roll out amongst great concern by Gulf carriers

Airbus looks set to further delay the roll-out of its key A350 long-haul twin-jet programme due to the need for technical improvements, the head of Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific said yesterday, setting off alarm bells across the Gulf regonAirbus "has technical improvements to make on the A350 and it will certainly be delayed," said Cathay CEO John Slosar.

The comments add to the concerns being expressed privately around the Gulf region over the delivery of the Airbus’ answer to the greatly delayed Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

Late last yearAirbus sources said the European aircraft maker would reorganise its A350 programme to ensure that deliveries can begin before the end of 2013 despite pressures on the timetable. That was already a delay from an earlier entry date of mid-2013.

Aviation analyst Saj Ahmad says "With Emirates, Etihad and launch customer for all three A350 variants, Qatar Airways, hoping that Airbus can avoid the pitfalls seen by Boeing on the 787, it appears increasingly likely that a series of crippling delays are inevitable for Airbus' latest widebody airplane.”

Ahmad says Airbus is still coming to terms with the problems and delays faced on the A380 programme and now with the A350 poised to slide as well, the big three Arab carriers, as well as leasing companies like DAE and ALAFCO will have to seriously consider their near-term capacity options. While Emirates will manage to offset some capacity issues with more A380s, he said, the reality is that any A350 delays means that the only other available long haul, high density twin engine airplane is the 777.

"All three (EK/EY/QR) are already big 777 customers, with Etihad most recently switching 4 787s for 3 more777-300ERs - this just highlights how important getting additional lift is as these airlines expand their operations and continue to open up new markets. The knock on effect of the inevitable A350 delays means that older airplanes will have to be retained. For Qatar Airways, this may well mean that they have to re-evaluate their plans to convert some of their A330s to freighters. They may have to drop this play and buy new build freighters as they retain the A330s until the A350s eventually arrive - but if they want to keep growing their long haul network, they'll have little choice but to buy more 777s since Airbus can't produce A380s fast enough and the airline will not have enough 787s in its fleet either," Ahmad said.

“According to my own research on the A350XWB programme, it is certain that the airplane will be at least 18-24 months late with the subsequent A350-800 and A350-1000 models also being delayed by similar timescales. With Airbus paying compensation for A380 delays, it will have to dig into its multibillion cash war chest to pay customers for the delays to the A350, of which EK/EY/QR will benefit - indirectly, if they then go on to buy 777s as interim lift, then Airbus' pain is definitely Boeing's gain. To date, the 777 has notched up some 61 orders and we're not even halfway through the year.

“As we get more detail on the A350 going forward, of which Emirates has already been a big critic for the way the project is being managed (largely because it has been burned by the delays to the A380 whose presence dictates the way Emirates operates its international business strategy), the big three GCC carriers will be amongst the first to buy more Boeing jets as a medium term solution for their expansion plans."