NASA wants $800 million in fiscal 2013 for its program to outsource the transport of crews to and from space, and says if it does not get the funding first commercial flights to the International Space Station will slip to 2018. With station funding set to expire in 2020, that could be a problem.
As the U.S. military pulls out of Afghanistan and “resets” for the Pacific theater, will there be an accompanying shift in the Defense Department's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance forces? The year should see the beginning of a shift away from lower-tech systems geared to detect improvised explosive devices and toward future high-tech sensors.
Dozens of women are filling senior management positions across aerospace and defense, changing the face of an industry not known for diversity. Another glass ceiling will shatter on Jan. 1, when Marillyn Hewson (right) becomes CEO of Lockheed Martin and Phebe Novakovic fills the top spot at General Dynamics.
The U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system, which has not had a successful intercept since 2008, is expected to return to flight in early 2013 after a two-year hiatus. And the U.S. will continue to roll out its Phased Adaptive Approach to protecting Europe, including construction of the first Aegis shore-launch site in Romania and further flights of the improved SM-3 Block 1B interceptor.
Weeks after North Korea's successful rocket launch, South Korea may take steps to beef up its surveillance capabilities. On Dec. 21, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency formally notified Congress that South Korea has proposed buying four RQ-4 Block-30 Global Hawks for up to $1.2 billion. The sale of Northrop Grumman's high-altitude, long-endurance UAV would help South Korea assume the lead in intelligence gathering as the U.S. plans to dissolve the Combined Forces Command in 2015, notes the agency.
The Pentagon continues to set the standard for research and development spending on missile defense, though purchases from allies are increasingly setting the production pace for regional defense systems. This trend is likely to continue in 2013, as Iran threatens Israel and other U.S. allies in the region.
Could optionally piloted vehicles (OPV) be the next wave in cost-effective special-mission aircraft, able to fly in civil airspace with pilot and sensor operator on board but also capable of flying unmanned for far longer duration at lower cost than the Beechcraft King Airs so favored today? Aurora Flight Sciences and Northrop Grumman would answer yes. Aurora is developing the $4.5 million Centaur OPV, and its first buyer is Switzerland's Arma-suisse, which will use it as a flying testbed for unmanned-aircraft airspace integration.
Displays are getting personal. As soldiers join the network they need displays, and today's ruggedized laptops are heavy, power-hungry and breakable. The push is on to field lightweight, flexible displays that can be worn on the wrist or integrated into clothing or protective eyewear. The U.S. Army is testing wrist displays, and the U.S. Air Force kneepad touchscreens, produced by L-3 Display Systems using unbreakable plastic-backed organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology from Universal Displays. These displays are small—only 4.3-in.
While privacy concerns bedevil efforts to integrate unmanned aircraft into U.S. national airspace, police departments across the country are pushing ahead with plans to field small unmanned aircraft systems (SUAS) operating under existing rules. The vehicle of choice appears to be a miniature rotorcraft, providing the ease of operation that comes with vertical-takeoff-and-landing and the ability to hover and stare. Canada's Draganfly Innovations has led development of the public-safety market with its 4.5-lb.
After its unveiling of the J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters, it is not unimaginable that Beijing could pull off another technological surprise in 2013. Could it up the superpower stakes by testing an unmanned combat air vehicle, an air-launched strike weapon or even a mini-spaceplane? Speculation abounds.
Routine aircraft-like spaceflight operations could begin in 2013, with Virgin Galactic and XCOR Aerospace flying to the edge of atmosphere, but fully reusable air-breathing space access remains a dream. A crucial step forward could be tests of an air-breathing rocket engine component now underway in the U.K.
Bombardier's future as a major player in the passenger jet business could rest on its new CSeries aircraft. The first flight has been delayed from December until as late as next June, and a key Chinese fuselage supplier fell down on the job. In 2013, Bombardier needs the CSeries to fly and customers to buy. Chinese
Asian investors continue to take big stakes in the aircraft leasing market. A consortium of three Chinese investors plans to close on a deal to acquire the International Lease Finance Corp. That follows earlier sales of Jackson Square Aviation and the Royal Bank of Scotland's aircraft leasing business to Japanese buyers and Singapore Aircraft Leasing Enterprise's acquisition by the Bank of China.
Unmanned vehicles able to accompany troops and alleviate their loads have made a debut in Afghanistan, but if autonomous systems are truly to carry the burden they must be able to go wherever the soldiers go. Darpa's Agency's Legged Squad Support System (LS3) program aims to develop a four-legged robot that can carry 400 lb. and follow soldiers over rugged terrain, interacting like a trained animal with its handler. After initial outdoor trials early in 2012, Boston Dynamics is refining its LS3 for a U.S. Marine Corps field exercise in 2014.
Nothing reveals the political nature of this year's debate over across-the-board budget cuts as much as the dramatic change of discourse in the weeks leading to the deadline for preventing them. After a year of hearings, press conferences and road shows clamoring for a stop to sequestration, lawmakers and the Obama administration are now met with the deadline. Late last week, they appeared to have rationalized missing it.
Unmanned vessels are about to take a leap in capability, on the surface and beneath. The desire for persistent sensing is driving the need to develop fully autonomous, long-duration vehicles that can covertly patrol coastal waters or overtly follow submerged submarines. The U.S. Office of Naval Research plans to build prototypes of the Large-Displacement Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (LDUUV) to address the autonomy, sensing and energy challenges of a vessel able to operate independently for months.
North Korea's successful launch of a satellite in December after 14 years of attempts put the hermit kingdom one step closer toward deploying an intercontinental ballistic missile. And Iran's nuclear weapons program—and the threat of an Israeli attack to cripple it—will keep tensions simmering in the Middle East.
When I began writing this column eight years ago, airlines were reeling as oil prices soared above $50 a barrel. Lockheed Martin was hoping to ramp up production of the Joint Strike Fighter in 2009, and Wall Street analysts were beginning to question whether a run-up in defense stocks had much steam left. Airbus was preparing to launch development of the A350 in response to Boeing's 7E7 (now 787), and the business jet market was embarking on a sales surge that would end in a spectacular crash.
The bifurcation of the business jet market is expected to continue in 2013, with strong demand for larger and pricier jets and sluggish sales of small and mid-sized aircraft. A Chinese company's failed bid in 2012 to acquire bankrupt Hawker Beechcraft is unlikely to slow Beijing's bid to become a significant player in the market.
