Douglas Royce/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
Manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers are forecast to produce 1,675 aircraft worth $21 billion during the next decade. Of those, 984 will be jet-powered and will be worth $15.3 billion. Annual production of military trainers is projected to gradually drop to 126 aircraft in 2016 from about 200 in 2011. Production will begin to rise again in 2017, reaching about 160 aircraft by 2020.
William N. Ostrove/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
As market demand for high-definition video and broadband Internet service grows, so too does the need for technologies to form the backbone of global networks.
Whether the threat is from insurgents, pirates, drug smugglers or illegal immigrants, whether the resources requiring protection are in the ocean or the jungle, the need for surveillance is increasing. This is driving demand for special-mission aircraft—manned and unmanned—the sensors to equip them and systems to analyze and disseminate the intelligence collected.
Driven by growth in passenger and cargo traffic, the global airline industry returned to profitability in 2010 after two years of financial losses. As a direct result, large turbine engine manufacturers have seen rebounding sales and full order books for new and existing engines.
Launch of the Intelsat-22 communications satellite early in 2012, carrying a UHF payload for the Australian Defense Force, will confirm for many that a new market—hosting government payloads on commercial satellites—is becoming a reality, offering cheaper access to space. Australia will save $150 million over a dedicated military satellite. Successful operation of a new wide-field-of-view staring sensor—the U.S. Air Force's Commercially Hosted Infrared Payload (Chirp) on the SES-2 communications satellite launched in September—has also boosted the sector.
“Aerospace 2012” is what we call this edition of Aviation Week & Space Technology, and what we seek to offer is not just a ready reference with a wealth of data but nothing less than a guide to the future for the sectors we serve. While we think our crystal ball is better than most, drawing an accurate picture of what may lie ahead for industry, even in the short term, is not exactly a science. As baseball's Yogi Berra is said to have quipped, “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
The majority of the 161 unclassified milsats forecast for production in the next decade will go into service in the near term with production tapering in the outyears.
With crude oil beginning the year above $110 a barrel, and little prospect of aviation fuel prices coming down anytime soon, the imperative to find alternative sources to ensure price competition and supply security remains strong. But as 2012 progresses, industry is looking to governments to capitalize on the rapid technical progress made in approving bio-derived jet fuels by providing the funding support necessary to scale production up to commercial quantities and bring prices down to competitive levels.
The air cargo market appeared to be on the way to sustained growth early in 2011, but in May it started shrinking. As a result, full-year results should show a slight decline versus the 2010 level. This is not a good start for 2012, and indicates that businesses' confidence in the economy is weak.
Unmanned aircraft systems are moving into new operating niches as the technology matures. One result is an increase in demand for vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) air vehicles able to operate from the decks of ships at sea or away from congested runways on land. In 2011, U.S. Navy Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout VTOL UAS were deployed to land bases in Afghanistan to provide surveillance in support of the U.S. Army. Lockheed Martin/Kaman K-Max unmanned helicopters are now conducting cargo resupply missions to remote U.S. Marine Corps outposts in Afghanistan.
More than five years after its first flight, Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter has been flown at night for the first time. The F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing development aircraft AF-6 on Jan. 18 conducted a series of approaches to Edwards AFB, Calif., in twilight and darkness. Night refueling and formation tests are planned for this year as the program targets completion of 1,001 flights and 7,837 test points in 2012, a slight increase over 2011's 972 flights.
If the Pentagon's top tester gave letter grades for the reliability of weapons, only the Navy would receive a passing grade—a D-minus. Only 63% of Navy programs and 55% of Army programs cleared military reliability standards. At the bottom of the class is the Air Force. Just 27% of its programs met the service's goals. Michael Gilmore, the director of operational test and evaluation, found that programs including the Small Diameter Bomb, MQ-9 Reaper, Global Hawk and C-27J Joint Cargo Aircraft all fell short in his annual report on the progress of weapon programs.
A mid-January agreement among five nations, including three from Europe, to buy shares in the U.S. Wideband Global Satcom (WGS) system exemplifies America's success in an area where Europe has thus far fallen short. The agreement—signed by Canada, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and New Zealand—affords these countries immediate access to WGS-reserved data frequencies in exchange for financing the U.S. Air Force's ninth WGS spacecraft.
The U.S. Air Force's tanker contract has been awarded, Airbus and Boeing have moved to upgrade the A320 and 737, and NASA's space shuttle has flown its last mission. It's time to move on to 2012 and the next round of big developments in the aerospace and defense industry. Here are 12 to keep an eye on.
Strike weapons is the only segment of the world missile-systems market expected to see significant increases in value and production through 2016, with the lightweight missile subsegment projected to experience rapid growth. The world missile market is forecast to see a slight increase in value from a low of $11.18 billion in 2012 to a high of $11.81 billion in 2016, but production is expected to drop, reflecting the high price of some systems. Annual purchases of lightweight missiles is currently low, but will reach $60 million in 2016.
Space Exploration Technologies Inc. (SpaceX) won't be ready to fly its first mission to the International Space Station (ISS) on Feb. 7 as planned, and may run into an upcoming space traffic jam in March. The company says “there are a few areas that will benefit from additional work,” and is in talks with NASA to set a new launch date. The Cape Canaveral AFS range will be occupied in mid-February for the scheduled Feb. 16 launch of the Navy's Mobile User Objective System (MUOS-1) on a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5.
A new opportunity is on the horizon for companies hoping to sell unmanned aircraft to support the missile defense mission in the U.S. This is welcome news for companies seeking to break into this space or expand this type of work because late last year the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) selected incumbent Boeing to manage the massive Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system for another seven years.
When TUI Travel, the European launch customer for Boeing's 787, finally takes delivery of its first aircraft, the team at Monarch Aircraft Engineering should be ready to provide maintenance support through the Goldcare option. The technical arm of London Luton-based Monarch Airlines, is currently Boeing's only airframe maintenance partner for the Goldcare program. Despite Monarch canceling its own order for six 787s in September of last year, Boeing has confirmed that Monarch will remain a Goldcare partner.
Obama administration officials are pleasing no one with their space diplomacy efforts. Basically, the government still wants an “international code of conduct” for outer space, likes many parts of a proposed EU conduct code over a Russian-China effort, but will not sign either proposal and will try again from scratch. That was the tortuous conclusion after several recent official and unofficial statements in Washington.
There are no votes to be won for adding airport capacity in London, so there is little political interest in tackling one of the most contentious air transport policy issues in the U.K. But policy makers are accepting, albeit somewhat grudgingly, that simply maintaining the status quo is not tenable.
Alenia North America is expected to name a new CEO after the departure this month of John Young, who became CEO in June 2010. Alenia's M-346 is locked in a race against two teams for the only major USAF aircraft contract looming in the near term.
For EADS investors, this point been has a long time coming: Airbus's financial performance is set to ramp up. Now the question is whether conditions beyond its control will allow the aircraft maker to follow through. With Airbus heading into new record output territory, production is due to hit 570 aircraft this year, including, for the first time, 30 A380s. Louis Gallois, CEO of Airbus parent EADS, promises the financial performance will take off, too.
