Aviation Week & Space Technology

Last summer, Boeing announced its decision to build the 737 MAX as a response to the refresh of the A320 family that Airbus made with its New Engine Option program. Once again, the industry's two largest airplane makers are engaged in a high-stakes struggle for narrowbody sales. Only this time, they face challenges from the Bombardier CSeries, the Comac C919 and the Irkut MS-21.

Defense budgets are being cut, but global security demands remain high. Commercial aircraft order books are growing, but airline profits are coming under pressure. What's in store for aerospace in 2012 and beyond—from aircraft and engines, rotorcraft and spacecraft, to avionics and weapons? That is the theme of Aerospace 2012, and the integrated print and online product that can also be found at AviationWeek.com/aerospace2012. Cover design by AW&ST Art Department.

India's concept program for a stealth unmanned combat air vehicle (Ucav), the Aura, has received crucial support from the Indian air force (IAF) in the form of a recommendation that it be accorded “major project” status, a move that will ensure generous and regular infusions of funds.

Controllers have restarted on-orbit checkout of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, which was suspended last year after the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor begin losing sensitivity in four of its channels. The problem appeared shortly after NPP returned this first full-Earth VIIRS image on Nov. 24. The spacecraft originally was scheduled to become fully operational in December, but its commissioning was put on hold while the VIIRS problem was analyzed.

Europe's safety agency says inspections will assess how severely a new set of wing cracks are affecting the Airbus superjumbos.

A ULA Delta IV lifted USAF's fourth Wideband Global Satcom (WGS) spacecraft into space on Jan. 19 from Cape Canaveral. Based on Boeing's 702-series commercial platform, the 7,600-lb. WGS-4 is the first in the Block II series that carries a switchable radio-frequency bypass system that enables transmission of airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance imagery data three times faster than Block 1 rates.

LightSquared and the GPS industry continue their war of words over potential interference between the planned broadband wireless network and the position and timing signals from the U.S. government-owned navigation-satellite constellation.

The worldwide demand for special-mission aircraft for everything from drug interdiction to medevac is leading to a corresponding need for visual enhancement systems. The increase in drug-trafficking activity in many parts of the world has stimulated growth in the market for smaller special-purpose aircraft engaged in surveillance and targeting of illegal activity. To help meet this demand, nearly all manufacturers of regional/commuter business jets and corporate turboprops now offer variants that can serve in multiple roles.

“We're going to shrink to win.” Scott Donnelly, the chairman, president and CEO of Textron, is referring to his strategy of cutting the company's cost structure while simultaneously investing in new products and chasing new business. The question is whether he will ultimately be forced to execute that strategy on a larger scale. Textron, a 32,000-employee conglomerate and parent company of Cessna, Bell Helicopter, Textron Systems and Lycoming, has come under varying degrees of shareholder pressure for more than three years to sell off underperforming operations.

Combat Aircraft: Growing demand for stealth technology gives Lockheed Martin's F-35 a dominant position in the global fighter market, even if the U.S. cuts the number it buys. And where the F-35 leads, new trainers will follow. See pp. 49 and 54. Commercial Transports: They face new challengers this time around, but Airbus and Boeing rake in orders in a high-stakes struggle for the narrowbody market. Their airline customers warn of higher costs and lower profits in 2012. See pp. 76, 80, 86 and 88.

Andrew Krepinevich, Jr., is president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, one of Washington's most influential think tanks, and serves on the Defense Policy Board. He discussed the changes and challenges of U.S. strategy with Senior North American Editor Paul McLeary. AW&ST: The U.S. is about to make a major strategic shift away from fighting in the Middle East and Southwest Asia to a naval and air-based posture in the Western Pacific. How difficult do you envision the transition?

Boeing's 737 MAX announcement this past summer has set the stage for a titanic struggle over the narrowbody airliner market. The 737 MAX series is the company's answer to the new Airbus A320NEO family, launched in late 2010. Making things even more interesting is the appearance of other new narrowbodies such as the Bombardier CSeries, Comac C919 and Irkut MS-21.

Proponents of a new airport being built in the southeast of England to deal with a growing capacity bottleneck will get a hearing for their controversial plan. The airport, to be built on reclaimed land in the Thames estuary, is billed by some as an alternative to adding runway capacity at London airports. The idea is now poised to be put out for a formal consultation process in March. The U.K. risks running out of runway capacity around London in 2013 (see p. 124).

Is the U.S. dominance of the large military airlifter market nearing its end? The coming decade should show whether new entrants can force a major change in the balance of power governing the export of military transports. A combination of factors could lead to the shift in market dynamics: the anticipated arrival of new competitors—principally the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390—growth in overall production numbers and a decline in U.S. spending.

General aviation aircraft manufacturers are expected to deliver 18,000 piston-engine models and 6,000 turboprops valued at $8 billion and $20.5 billion, respectively, between 2011 and 2020. That is encouraging, considering the protracted slump in output. However, the near and midterm outlook is no cause for celebration.

Satellites play a vital role in the increasingly networked world, and satellite operators are discovering a wealth of new opportunities.

Significant defense orders, strong government subsidies and growing demand for domestically produced commercial aircraft have provided optimism regarding the Russian aircraft industry.

An item in Washington Outlook in the Jan. 16 edition (p. 17) mischaracterized the position of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on a union matter in the FAA reauthorization bill. The House version of the bill calls for reverting to the rules for how airline and railroad employees form unions that had been in existence for 75 years until the National Mediation Board changed them in 2010. The chamber supports the House bill's provision to reverse the recent rule change.

The civil rotorcraft market is in a recovery mode after dealing with the effects of a global economic slowdown.

Michael J. McCord, the U.S. Defense Department's comptroller, warns of dire consequences if more than $1 trillion in approved cuts to military spending over 10 years are allowed to take effect. The result would be the lowest number of ships since World War I, the smallest ground force since 1940 and the smallest Air Force ever, he recently told investors.

Geneva-based PrivatAir has become the 11th customer for Bombardier's CSeries regional jet with a firm order for five CS100s and options for five more. The order raises Bombardier's orderbook for the 110-130-seat jet to 138.

With laser jammers protecting helicopters from man-portable missile attacks in Afghanistan, attention has shifted to the age-old threat posed by small-arms fire—and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), which brought down two Boeing Chinooks in August 2011 with the loss of 38 lives. Hostile fire indication (HFI) is the new priority, and the first U.S. Army Boeing Apaches fitted with Radiance Technologies' WeaponWatch ground fire acquisition system will deploy this year.

The government may talk about conducting “full and open” competitions for military goods and services, but from 2007-10, the Pentagon sole-sourced contracts 41% of the time, spending $606.3 billion on such contracts. A Government Accountability Office report explains that the practice of ditching competitions happens most often because only “one responsible source” exists to meet the agency's requirements.

Using a manufacturing technique more akin to fabric weaving than traditional composite layup, Snecma has led development of a lightweight engine fan case using the same three-dimensional, woven, resin transfer molded (RTM) fabrication process developed for fan blades. Both the RTM fan and case will be featured in CFM International's Leap engine family for the Airbus A320NEO, Boeing 737 MAX and Comac C919 airliners. The manufacturing technique increases stiffness in smaller-scale structures while maintaining the weight savings associated with composites.

Few times in aerospace history can have been as difficult for forecasters as recent months. Things are changing, that is certain, but there are so many conflicting signs that the direction of the industry is almost impossible to project. Debt crises, oil prices, climate change, competition for resources and many other factors inject unprecedented unpredictability into the equation.