Space Developments to Watch in 2026

The boom in military space, enthusiasm about the space economy and recent initial public offerings will cause more startups to seek to go public.

After a year of challenges for rocket startups to fly their designs, several of them should make it to orbit in the coming year.

The e-commerce giant’s Leo space communications business that is racing to meet a regulatory deadline to deploy satellites will also lean on the company’s heft to win market share.

SpaceX will demonstrate in-orbit refueling of its Starship spacecraft, a key milestone for future space exploration missions.

The burgeoning direct-to-device (D2D) market will drive further adjustments in business plans for incumbents and newcomers in the commercial satellite communications business.

The U.S. space science and exploration community will muddle through, as some funding cuts by the Trump administration are restored by Congress and individual scientists do not follow through on threats to move to Europe. China will catch up in key areas as the U.S. stalls.

The Pentagon is getting serious about maneuverable spacecraft, as evidenced by the Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program’s replacement satellites— the proposed RG-XX—and hints of a new geostationary-orbit-based surveillance constellation in solicitations.

Fearing the loss of U.S. space access and seeking growth, European governments, militaries, investors and the European Space Agency will boost investment in space companies. However, national competition  could hinder effectiveness, as it has in the past.

A cadre of scientists and engineers working for NASA will find second careers in the private sector, accelerating innovation in ways they might not have with the agency. Some may even start companies that will make a significant impact on the sector.

Blue Origin, Rocket Lab and Stoke Space begin reusable rocket operations. China also demonstrates it is in the game as Europe makes slow progress to keep pace.