Honeywell Projects ‘Strong’ Demand For 8,500 Business Jets Over Decade

LAS VEGAS—Honeywell’s just-released business aviation forecast projects strong demand over the next decade with deliveries of 8,500 new business jets worth $278 billion from 2024-33, growing at a 2% average annual rate.

Honeywell Aerospace unveiled its 32nd annual Global Business Aviation Outlook on Oct. 15 during a briefing here ahead of the opening of NBAA-BACE.

By units, the largest demand is expected in the heavy, long-range jet segment with 37% of deliveries, followed by small jets at 34% and midsize and super midsize jets at 29%.

It forecasts 2023 deliveries of 700 and 750 jets, respectively, growing to 800 in 2024 and 850 in 2025. Expenditures, meanwhile, are projected to grow 13% in 2024 from 2033.

“Our industry is on an upswing,” says Heath Patrick, Honeywell Aerospace president of Americas Aftermarket. “Operators are showing confidence with plans to expand their fleets at a faster rate than any time in the previous decade.”

New entrants into the business aviation industry during the pandemic are here to stay, Javier Jimenez Serrano, Honeywell strategy manager told ShowNews. Anyone that would have dropped out of the industry has likely already done so.

“We’re making the claim that whoever is going to stay is here with us,” Jimenez Serrano says. “I think we have a new baseline that is higher than pre-COVID levels.”

The new baseline can be seen in higher flight activity and in business jet orders, although both have stabilized. Manufacturers are planning to scale up production in response to their record backlogs, the forecast notes.

Flight activity in the last half of 2021 and first half of 2022, following the onset of the pandemic, were at levels at times not seen since 2007, Jimenez Serrano says. Today, global flight activity is expected to decrease in 2023 by 4% compared to a year ago due to factors such as inflation and the resumption of commercial air service on certain routes.

Still, activity is expected to end 2023 10% above 2019 levels and conclude 2-6% above where the industry would have been had the world not been impacted by the pandemic, it predicts. In 2024, flight activity is expected to stabilize before returning to growth in 2025, driven by an accelerated pace in initial public offerings, corporate profits and easing inflation rates.

At the same time, order projections are up. In 2020 before COVID, Honeywell’s forecast predicted demand for 8,000 aircraft for 2024-33. By comparison, the latest forecast projected demand for 8,500 for 2024-33, up by 500 jets.

Honeywell projects two bumps in deliveries during the next decade. The first is from 2024 and 2026 when manufacturers increase production rates to work with record order backlogs, Jimenez Serrano says.

The second time is during 2029 and 2030 with the entry into service of new, clean-sheet and upgraded aircraft now under development, he says.

At the same time, operators are showing an increased interest in reducing their carbon emissions. In a Honeywell operator survey, almost 60% of respondents say they are using at least one method to reduce their carbon footprint, which is 10 percentage points above Honeywell’s 2022 survey. The most frequently mentioned methods are fewer private jet trips in favor of commercial flights, followed by slower cruising speeds.

Most operators, 67%, say they plan to adopt or increase methods for more environmentally friendly operations in the future, with 40% citing sustainable aviation fuels as the most common way to achieve the goal.