Podcast: Evolving Trends In Airline Network Planning

After returning from Routes World in typhoon-hit Hong Kong, Aviation Week's David Casey is joined by ASM experts Tony Griffin and Edmond Rose to discuss industry resilience in the face of disruption as well as the key markets, trends and strategies shaping the next phase of global air service development.

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David Casey: Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us for Window Seat, our Aviation Week Transport podcast. I'm David Casey, editor-in-chief of Routes. Welcome aboard. On this week's episode, we'll be reflecting on Routes World 2025, which is an Aviation Week network event that took place in Hong Kong in late September. The event brought together airline network planners, airports, destinations, and suppliers from around the world to discuss new and existing services. Help me unpack the big themes and takeaways from the event. I'm delighted to be joined by two guests from Aviation Consultancy ASM, who were right in the thick of it all, meeting with airlines and airports. Throughout the event, we have Tony Griffin, senior vice president of consulting at ASM and Edmond Rose, consulting director at ASM. Tony, Edmond. It's great to have you with us. Before we get into talking about the event itself, we probably have to start with the weather because Hong Kong certainly didn't make it easy for us.

On the eve of Routes World, a super typhoon named Yagi hit the city bringing with it gale-force winds and torrential rain. It ended up being the world's most powerful tropical cyclone this year and forced Cathay Pacific to cancel more than 500 flights as well as reposition aircraft outside of Hong Kong. But Cathay moved daily getting crew and aircraft out of harm's way while the airport authority of Hong Kong worked hand in hand with airlines, ground handlers and government agencies to make sure the recovery was as smooth and as safe as possible. And it really worked because once the storm had passed, operations were restored very quickly and I think it was a great example of just how resilient and well coordinated both the airline and the airport have become. So let's start there. Tony and Edmond, do you think the industry is getting better at dealing with the shocks of this scale and not just extreme weather like we had in Hong Kong, but also geopolitical and other operational disruptions?

Tony Griffin: Yeah, thanks David. Good to be talking about the weather to start off with, if there's any industry that is prepared for resilient and able to manage weather events or geopolitical events, in this case weather, then it's the aviation industry. There isn't probably a week that goes by where there is some form of geopolitical impact, whether that be earthquakes, whether that be typhoons, hurricanes. Unfortunately we have to live with it as aviation people. It's very clear as well that the Hong Kong government, Hong Kong authorities are so well prepared for these events that it kind of almost went unnoticed. I know we were out at the airport and we were quite well protected, but it didn't feel like we were in the most powerful weather system to hit Earth this year. And I think it was also reflected in the way that the airport delegates, the airline delegates and everybody managed to very quickly overcome the logistical problems that can arise from this.

And we had a great day with the day that the hurricane, we were locked down. I don't know what the stats are, but I think Routes said there was probably about 75% of the meetings took place, which is fantastic achievement. Everybody mucked in, everybody understood what the challenges were and it made for a great start to the event on what could have been a bit of a catastrophe. Things had not been planned and managed as well as they were. These events happen all the time and the industry is so well trained now and so well aware of these things that the industry goes into a mode where things are managed very effectively. I think it's also probably one of the better impacts of COVID in that the industry has learned very much how to adapt, adopt new ways of working in what was for COVID was obviously a once-in-a-lifetime event that affected us all globally, but in particular the aviation industry.

David Casey: So the resilience is there in terms of dealing with these kind of shocks from a network perspective, Edmond, are you seeing airlines building more flexibility in the networks just to cope with this kind of volatility?

Edmond Rose: It would be unusual to see an airline building in extra flexibility just to cope with these events, which aren't necessarily that frequent. Although Hong Kong has had a number of typhoons this year and it still expects some more before the end of the year, the number that caused such significant disruption is quite small. But the airlines are definitely, they're much better planned for these sorts of events. And I think actually in future they will have to brush up more of that planning and they'll also have to do more to build resilience into their systems and their resources and potentially their fleets, all of which costs money, but just to make sure they are prepared for all sorts of things in future.

David Casey: That element of planning and preparedness really stood out for me as well. But also I was really impressed by the communication from Cathay. There were live updates, there were digital notifications going out to passengers. There was a live blog and I think there was a real sense of transparency with passengers about what was happening. I actually had the chance to interview Cathay Group CEO Ronald Lam on stage during the event, and he made that point about the need to be open and honest with customers. And he said it was crucial because Cathay had to really help them understand the scale of the challenge that the airline was facing and why certain decisions over canceled flights had to be made. So that transparency, that planning was something that really came through for me during the super typhoon. But moving on from the weather to talk about the actual event because Routes World still went ahead as planned, and I think there was a real sense of momentum once things got underway.

Tony, as you said, the meeting halls were full airlines and airports were busy with back-to-back discussions and the exhibition floor felt really lively right through to the final day on stage as well at the conference. We had some great insights too. We had a range of speakers including Ronald Lam as I said, as well as TAP Air Portugal CEO Luis Rodrigues, Cebu Pacific's Mike Szucs and Philippine Airlines' Richard Nuttall as well. So when you look back at the event as a whole, Tony, what was it that really stood out for you? Were there any key themes that kept coming up during the event from some of the conversations that you were having with airlines and airports?

Tony Griffin: For me, it was quite interesting. It's the first Routes I've attended for a while where the airlines didn't open up with issues around aircraft delivery delays or they didn't talk about problems with engines impacting their capacity. So it was quite pleasant. The conversations I was having with airlines were about availability of capacity. Actually, for example, with Wizz Air we know pulled their well are closing their Abu Dhabi base around now, which has released 12 aircraft into their fleet. That is a lot of capacity to fill and by their own admission they are looking for homes for those 12 aircraft and this is just one airline. So I wouldn't say there was rich pickings for airports, but there was certainly an upbeat mood about we have capacity in some cases, we have capacity to do things in summer 2025. The theme I also picked up was that traditionally airlines have more or less closed their summer '26 programs by now, and we've got slots in November, but actually there were several airlines who are saying that their window of decision making has actually expanded to a couple of months from now.

So they're making decisions up to the middle of November on what they may or may not do for summer '26, which is good for airports in the sense that there's still opportunities. Maybe it's a bit challenging because it doesn't allow the airlines that much time to put the route on sale, which can be problematic in terms of the first few weeks of the performance of the route. But nonetheless, there seems to be much more flexibility. And this is not just a feature of the low-cost carriers. This is also conversations I had with some full-service carriers. And the other theme I picked up, and maybe it was the nature of the airlines that I met, it seemed to me that Europe is a particularly strong place at the moment in terms of expansion. And whilst we think, gosh, is there anywhere else to expand in Europe, the answer seems to be yes, there is.

There's a lot of appetite for that. The other big theme I picked up on is how excited the airlines are about the new technologies, particularly the A321 XLRs. So airlines like Aer Lingus, Iberia, I note today from reading that Iberia really, really pleased with the performance and resilience of the A321s on the routes that they have put them on. And the A321 opens up new routes. It also allows airlines to match capacity to demand and increase frequencies and extend to year-round. So that was another theme I picked up. And so it was all pretty positive. As I said, I didn't come across the airline complaining about we've got so many aircraft on the ground because of engine issues. I'm sure there are examples of that, but it certainly wasn't as widespread as it has been in recent Routes.

David Casey: Thanks for that, Tony. There's quite a lot to unpack there. You mentioned that unlike some previous Routes events, there weren't too many airlines talking about engine problems or delivery delays this time, which just makes a nice change. And it's interesting to hear you touch on how the planning cycle seems to be evolving as well, a bit more flexible now and maybe a bit more short-term, some of those conversations still focused on the coming winter season. Now looking ahead to summer 2026, Edmond, were you hearing similar things to Tony?

Edmond Rose: What I'd remark on is the central calm normality of the attitudes at the event. So no one is in an overly worried position, no one's shouting that they're going to be having huge growth, but the industry as a whole was treating the event calmly and I think treating the coming period with a degree of calm and normality, which sometimes is absent. So as Tony mentioned, you've mentioned less talk about delivery delays and more talk about what's our priorities just to keep growing and organizing ourselves.

David Casey: Are you seeing airlines then become more cautious about launching new routes? We saw during the pandemic there was a great degree of flexibility. Tony mentioned Wizz Air, they were opening routes left, right, and center. Are you seeing airlines maybe become more cautious?

Edmond Rose: I'm not sure. I'd say it's entirely cautious because you're seeing all sorts of developments which are definitely striking out in new directions. So if you think of what we've seen in recent months from IndiGo in India with European flying beginning and looking to add more and doing that in a reasonably fast fashion. So it's not that there's nothing happening or that it's all cautious. Where there's opportunities for growth, the airlines are taking them.

Tony Griffin: I think there's been a subtle change in what I would call data versus deal-driven. My sense is that airlines are slightly more deal-driven than they are data-driven, albeit data is critical to an airline's decision as Edmond will quite rightly tell us. Airlines are not just going to do routes because they're getting a good deal. There has to be a market. But I do sense, and again, even with some of the full-service carriers, that it's a bit more deal-driven. So what's the deal and is there a market? I think it's a subtle change. I would say it's maybe 60-40 or maybe 55-45 at the moment. I'm not saying that has always been the case and always will be the case, but I just got a sense that the commercials are a little bit more important at the moment than making the data case.

David Casey: And is that largely about financial incentives or waivers or is it more about softer elements like marketing support or tourism partnerships? What's becoming more important?

Tony Griffin: What's becoming more important is the financial incentives per head. So it's the low-cost model really. It's like, what are you going to give me per head? Are you going to give me 50 euros, 20 euros, or whatever? And of course, it's taken almost as a given by airlines that particularly if you're talking about a leisure-oriented route, that the tourism agencies will provide marketing funds for campaigns, awareness campaigns, things that generate demand as opposed to mitigate costs.

David Casey: Are airports then having to become more creative about how they build their route support packages? Do you think, Edmond?

Edmond Rose: I think they certainly have to look at all the aspects. So for example, in the past you've seen airports that tended to go in and do something on their own and didn't bring their tourism bodies with them. And yet we've also seen airlines saying, well, actually what we really value is the support from the tourism body. So that's one of the aspects of building the right package to attract the airlines that some airports maybe still are missing.

Tony Griffin: Just on that as well, David, I think it's clear now if it never was that airports are in an intensely competitive environment that if you are not going to provide support, you can guarantee there's going to be five other airports who will around you. And I'm not saying that airlines are just going for the airport that offers the most, but airlines have very clearly worked out that they do have a lot of leverage. They understand the value they provide to a region, to an airport, and they will use that to leverage the best commercial offer that they can negotiate from an airport and a tourism agency. Nowhere is more competitive, I would say, than Italy where there are 35, 36 commercial airports all competing for the similar airlines. And the airlines know it and they will negotiate to the nth degree with each of those airports and select the one that they want based largely on the commercial support, but also as we say on the data case.

Edmond Rose: It's interesting, Tony, that you mentioned there, the fact that the Italian airports are all, or many of them are separate from each other. If you look across the Mediterranean a bit, we've seen more or less while we were in Hong Kong for Routes World, the slight spat between AENA in Spain and Ryanair where you have AENA runs all the airports in Spain, and it perhaps has a bit more of at least the verbal muscle to say we're not happy with the way that things are going. Meanwhile, I'm sure the Italian airports are saying, well, if Ryanair and others don't want to go to Spain they can come here instead. So yeah, a lot of competition.

Tony Griffin: Yeah, I mean we know airlines hate monopolies when it comes to airport ownership because their leverage is much reduced. And I wouldn't say they're hurting from this reduction in capacity, but they're able to face it up compared to countries where airports are all individually owned or run by separate entities like Italy.

David Casey: In terms of some of the growth markets then, you've mentioned Italy, where there's really heavy competition. You've seen Wizz Air now, Jet2, Wizz Air in particular, expanding in that market. What are the markets that you are seeing that airlines are most interested in at the minute? Are there any real strong opportunities for expansion from airlines? I know Edmond, you spoke at the event about Saudi Arabia, and in terms of some of the expansion that we're seeing there, obviously we've got Riyadh Air, which will hopefully be taking to the skies in the short term. We've got a lot of airport infrastructure investment. Routes World is actually heading to Riyadh in 2026. Just tell us a little bit about that market and maybe some of the other markets where you see real strength and real expansion at the minute.

Edmond Rose: Sure. Well, Saudi Arabia is certainly the most ambitious country that we have at the moment, looking to grow its own aviation market and to attract airlines that will come and serve that market. As you mentioned, they have Riyadh Air just starting up soon, and that's going to be followed by a fourth airline within Saudi Arabia, which will be a low-cost carrier, a partnership between Flynas and a local partner. So they've certainly got ambitions on their own aviation, but they're also very keen to attract airlines in to serve the demands of a growing population, growing both through natural growth, but also because the economy's growing and that brings in more people from other countries to live and work there. They've got that growing economy, which always drives aviation, and then they've got aspirations and real new projects that will bring people in for tourism. Red Sea resorts or of course the religious tourism is always a big thing in Saudi Arabia, but they also have many interesting places to visit.

So Saudi Arabia, we can see growing into the future and being an attractive market for airlines. And we've seen plenty of airlines going in there in recent years and just these last few weeks we've had Chinese carriers increasing their services to Saudi Arabia. So that's a big growth market. I think another market that will continue to be attracting a lot of attention is India. The growth there remains very strong. You've had some consolidation within the Indian airline scene, but there's plenty of room for more growth. And the Indian carriers are keen to grow more, but also other carriers are keen to serve India more.

David Casey: I'm actually based here in Manchester, and IndiGo this week just announced a new Delhi route that will start to Manchester in the winter season. So I think there's a real focus there on the long-haul expansion from IndiGo there. Any markets from you that particularly stand out?

Tony Griffin: London Heathrow, I've just seen that. I still can't get my head around this. Emirates have gone up to, is it eight flights a day or they're going up to eight flights a day and Qatar 10 or is it 12? I struggle with sort of understanding the scale of feed from Heathrow to the Middle East hubs. It's just relentless and the scale of it. But that's been very niche in terms of growth. The one for me to watch is Indonesia. So we've got a lot of dialogue with the Indonesian airports and there are huge opportunities, I believe for Indonesia to expand internationally. There's something like 30-odd commercial airports. It's got one of the biggest populations in the world, about 270 million people. It's relatively poorly served in terms of international traffic, and it's got an airline, a national carrier airline that's quite challenged in terms of its ability to grow, Garuda.

So I think there is big scope for Indonesia to develop more international services from more of their airport portfolios in the coming seasons. And if you look at where the big aircraft orders are, a lot of them are Asia, big numbers, AirAsia, IndiGo, Jetstar, I'm trying to think of the other ones. Lion Air, of course. So these are big aircraft order territories, and those aircraft have got to find a home. The other thing about aircraft orders in Asia is that whilst new aircraft are replacing older aircraft, I think in Asia, the ratio is less for replacement of old aircraft compared to say Europe or the U.S. So basically it means that a lot of those new aircraft orders are actually incremental capacity that's got to find a home to go to. And I think the one to watch maybe is Indonesia to Australia geographically. That's quite an interesting market that I think could be open to more growth. I guess it's not surprising that the growth markets are in the most populated place on the planet, which is Southeast Asia or Asia. So it's hardly surprising, but I think Indonesia is one to watch.

David Casey: Yeah, that's an interesting point because I think you're right, Indonesia often flies under the radar in these conversations despite the scale of its population and its geography. It feels like one of those markets where once the right airline capacity and partnerships are in place, international growth could really accelerate. Well, we're at the end of the podcast for this week, so I just want to say thank you to Tony and Edmond for your insights. It's really interesting to hear about some of those discussions and some of the themes that you heard during Routes World. Thanks also to our producer this week, who's Guy Ferneyhough. Anyhow, if you enjoyed this podcast, don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen. And for all the editorial coverage from this year's Routes World, head on over to aviationweek.com. So that's all for this week. Until next time, this is David Casey disembarking from Window Seat.