Aviation Week data predicts 719 aircraft will be retired this year, with the decade’s peak expected by the year 2028, according to Aviation Week Network's latest Civil Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
10-Year Retirement Projections
Credit: Joe Pries
Approximately 2,060 Boeing 737s and 1,951 Airbus A320s are projected to retire over the next 10 years.
Stored Aircraft To Return To Service By 2023
Around half of the aircraft stored in the early stages of the pandemic are expected to return to service by 2023, according to Aviation Week Network's latest Civil Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
The Global Aircraft Fleet Will Shrink In 2020
Credit: Joe Pries
Due to the impact of COVID-19, the in-service fleet in 2020 is expected to fall to 27,370 aircraft—a reduction of 3,200 aircraft compared to 2019.
Narrowbodies Drive Engine Growth
Narrowbody engines will be the driver of growth at an estimated 3.8% compound annual growth rate. Narrowbody engines, bolstered by the growth of the LEAP and the GTF, are predicted to have a 61% fleet share by 2030, according to Aviation Week Network's latest Civil Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
Engine Maintenance Will Perform Strongly Over A 10-Year Period
Credit: MTU Maintenance
Despite COVID-19 setbacks on the aftermarket, engine maintenance will still be a strong driver of 10-year growth. From 2021-2030, Aviation Week data predicts engine MRO demand will be $405 billion with the fastest CAGR growth of any segment at 4.9%.
Europe's Engine MRO Segment Under Scrutiny
Credit: CFM International / Twitter
Europe will account for 23% of new engine deliveries over the next decade, and these deliveries will outpace retirements, which will peak in the region at 600 in 2025, according to Aviation Week Network's latest Civil Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast.
Shifting Engine MRO Spends
As the new engine fleet grows with older models retiring, projected maintenance spends are anticipated to change. The LEAP engine will ascend over 10 years by around $2.5 billion. At the other end is its CFM56 predecessor, which will see a $1.7 billion decrease.
Some of the key takeaways shared at Aero Engines Europe virtual from Aviation Week’s Fleet & MRO Forecast data.