2020: The MRO Outlook by Region

Given the problems with new aircraft and engine programs in 2019, the forecast for 2020 hinges partly on when those issues, including that of the Boeing 737 MAX, are resolved. As OEMs deal with technical problems, older aircraft are continuing to fly, so the number of aircraft being     retired in 2020 is projected to be only 877, according to the Aviation Week 2020 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast. This means the strained supply chain will mostly still be problematic for used serviceable material for popular engine types such as the CFM56 and V2500.

At the same time, 2020 should see a record number of deliveries if Boeing resumes handovers of the MAX early in the year. But expect Airbus A320neos to lead regardless—which means CFM Leap 1B engines will lead the engine deliveries. The forecast projects that 2,743 aircraft will enter service, almost 500 more than the following year, when more aircraft will retire as those deliveries take place.

Looking at regional fleet growth rates over the 10-year forecast period, India leads with 10.6%, followed by the Middle East with 8.5% and Latin America with 5.7%.

However, North America still leads MRO demand in 2020, followed by Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and India).

NORTH AMERICA - 25%

• Over the next 10 years, the commercial fleet in North America is expected to remain relatively constant, from nearly 9,385 aircraft in 2020 to about 9,200 by 2029.
• North America will generate the largest MRO demand in 2020, with $23 billion in MRO requirements.
• More than 2,375 engine overhauls are anticipated in North America in 2020.

WESTERN EUROPE - 24%

• The top five aircraft family deliveries in Western Europe in 2020 are: the Boeing 737 MAX 8 (29%), Airbus A320neo (21%), Airbus A321neo (9%), Airbus A350-900 (8%) and Boeing 787-9 (7%).
• Western Europe by itself will rank second in MRO demand in 2020 compared to other world regions, reaching $19 billion.
• More than 1,460 engine overhauls are anticipated in Western Europe in 2020.

ASIA-PACIFIC (excluding China and India) - 18%

• Nearly 425 new commercial aircraft are expected to be delivered in the region in 2020.
• MRO demand in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow from $18 billion in 2020 to $26.5 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 4.3%.
• Engine maintenance will capture a 44% share of all MRO demand, followed by line maintenance (22%) and components (21%) in 2020.

CHINA - 9%

• Over the next 10 years, the Chinese commercial fleet will grow from 4,315 aircraft in 2020 to 5,970 aircraft by 2029, a CAGR of 3.7%.
• China will see 415 new aircraft deliveries in 2020.
• The 10-year MRO demand for China is $109.6 billion in constant dollars.

MIDDLE EAST - 9%

• Over the next 10 years, fleets in the Middle East are expected to nearly double, growing from 1,760 aircraft in 2020 to 3,670 aircraft in 2029, a CAGR of 8.5%.
• MRO demand in the Middle East is projected to double and could reach $16.5 billion by 2029.
• Engine MRO requirements will have the fastest growth in the region, representing 46% of total spending.

LATIN AMERICA - 5%

• During the 10-year forecast period, the aircraft in-service fleet in Latin America will grow from 2,440 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 4,025 aircraft by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.7%.
• MRO demand in Latin America is expected to increase from $5.3 billion in 2020 to $8.2 billion in 2029, for a CAGR of 4.9%.
• Engines (42%), components (28%) and line maintenance (20%) will comprise the largest shares of the MRO market in Latin America in 2020.

EASTERN EUROPE - 5%

• The active commercial fleet in Eastern Europe is expected to increase from 2,075 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 2,770 aircraft by 2029, a CAGR of 3.2% during the forecast period.
• The Boeing 737 MAX 8 holds the largest share of new aircraft deliveries in Eastern Europe, with 36% of the total, followed by the Sukhoi Superjet and Airbus A321neo with 12% and 8%, respectively.
• The MRO demand for the Eastern Europe region will grow from $5 billion in 2020 to $6 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 1.8%.

AFRICA - 3%

• Over the next decade, the active commercial fleet in Africa is expected to decrease from 1,560 aircraft in 2020 to 1,365 aircraft by 2029, for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.5%.
• Africa is projected to receive 70 new commercial aircraft deliveries in 2020.
• The MRO demand for the African region is expected to decrease from $3.6 billion in 2020 to $3.4 billion in 2029, a CAGR of -0.6%.

INDIA - 2%

• Over the next 10 years, the Indian commercial fleet is forecast to grow from 800 aircraft in 2020 to nearly 1,975 aircraft by 2029, exhibiting the highest regional CAGR, 10.6%.
• The top three aircraft deliveries in India for 2020 will be: Airbus A320neo (45%), ATR (18%) and Boeing 737 MAX 8 (14%).
• MRO demand for the Indian region is expected to grow from $2.0 billion in 2020 to $4.3 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 8.2%.