Which Factors Could Shape Europe’s MRO Market Over The Next Decade?

LONDON—Europe is expected to get more than 5,200 new aircraft deliveries over the next decade, which should drive healthy, growing demand for MRO in the region, according to Aviation Week Network’s 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast.

Europe’s in-service fleet should reach nearly 11,000 by 2035, dominated by narrowbodies. Airbus aircraft will lead in the region, with around 55% of its fleet, and more than 40% of these aircraft will be from the A320 family.

The forecast predicts Europe will have around 2,000 aircraft retirements over the forecast period. “When airframe, engine, supply chain and workforce stars align and we can start delivering new aircraft at a consistent rate on time, as promised, that is going to start a small chain of aircraft coming out of service,” said Dan Williams, Aviation Week Network’s director of fleet data services, during a presentation at MRO Europe here on Oct. 14.

The region will generate more than $366 billion in MRO demand over the decade, including over 26,500 airframe checks and 21,500 engine overhaul events. Engine MRO will have the highest compound annual growth rate at 4.8%, driven in part by engine durability issues on the CFM International Leap and Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan, which account for around $5.1 billion worth of global MRO business over this period.

Aviation Week Network data predicts 2031 will be the inflection year for new-generation engines to overtake the legacy engine fleet, while shop visits for new-gen engines will overtake legacy ones a few years later in 2034.

Williams shared some geopolitical factors that could impact the forecast, including fluctuating U.S. tariffs and inflation, as well as increased “political” orders. For instance, he cited UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recent visit to the U.S. to make a tariff deal that included an aircraft order for British Airways and IAG Group.

Aviation Week’s forecast data for Europe does not include Russia. When asked an audience question about potential impacts to the forecast if Russia’s civil aviation market reopens soon, Williams said Russian aircraft and those operating in Russia are “dead to the outside world,” so the only way they could be utilized for operations or used serviceable material by parties outside the country is if they were stripped down to individual parts that could then be re-certified and put back together, “but the amount of money you’d have to have to do that is beyond belief,” Williams said.

Meanwhile, he pointed out that Russia is “desperate for aircraft,” but there is a shortage of secondhand aircraft on the market and lessors are unlikely to lease them to the country, so the probability of this scenario impacting the forecast is minimal.

Williams was also asked if Comac could be a competitor in the narrowbody market. While noting the airframer’s market share in China and the C919’s position as the country’s replacement for the Boeing 737 MAX, Williams said he does not see it as “a significant player on the global stage.” He added that China needs more aircraft and will take Airbus models because there “isn’t a 100% tariff that goes on and off every week” with the manufacturer, so the C919 “will be a great second fiddle aircraft for the Chinese market.” But if there is a military conflict between China and Taiwan, the C919 “can be held hostage very quickly because it’s a bunch of western parts in a Chinese skin,” so it “would take no time at all to turn the supply tap off.”