Future Engine Demand

James Pozzi April 19, 2021

Engine MRO Demand In 2030

With a projected MRO growth of 4.9% annually from 2021 to 2030, the engine segment will be in the largest in the aftermarket. By 2030, it will account for 46% of the overall MRO market's $886.7 billion value.
Trent XWB engine

Consistent Engine Growth

An illustration of the segment's growth is the increase in its value over the next decade. This year, it is worth $30.2 billion yet 10 years from now, it will be valued at $46.5 billion.

10-Year Demand By Region

North America will lead the industry over the next 10 years for MRO demand. Aviation Week data forecasts the region will generate $81.7 billion in MRO spend. This would be followed by Asia-Pacific ($72 billion), China ($68 billion) and Western Europe ($64.5 billion).

CFM Will Hold Largest Market Share

CFM International, manufacturer of the CFM56 family (pictured) engine, will hold the largest market share over the next 10 years. Aviation Week's Fleet & MRO Forecast data estimates a 51% market share.

What Will The Engine Retirement Landscape Look Like?

Post-COVID could see a retirement wave. Engines like the CF34 (pictured) will see a gradual increase before peaking in 2024.

MRO Events

During that 10-year timeframe, Aviation Week estimates there will be more than 115,000 MRO events. 63% of these will be through shop visits.

Future Delivery Demand Dominated By Narrowbody Engines

Credit: Sean Broderick / AWST
Narrowbody engine types will inevitably be the most in-demand engine types. Aviation Week forecasts the LEAP-1B will lead this with 10,828 units expected to be delivered from 2021 to 2030. This is followed by the LEAP-1A (7,498) and Pratt & Whitney's GTF (3,240).

Widebody Engine Deliveries and Maintenance

In the Widebody segment, Rolls-Royce's Trent XWB powering the Airbus A350 will lead the way in deliveries with 1,750. The GENX-1 (pictured) will see 1,584 deliveries and will generate $32.6 billion in MRO spend over 10 years.

A look at future demand in the commercial engine MRO segment.

James Pozzi

As Aviation Week's MRO Editor EMEA, James Pozzi covers the latest industry news from the European region and beyond. He also writes in-depth features on the commercial aftermarket for Inside MRO.