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ROCAF members briefed new Taiwanese President William Lai (in suit and tie) on the ADF.
China’s increased belligerence toward Taiwan may have taken its first casualty: Taipei’s ambition to develop a homegrown fifth-generation combat aircraft.
The ambitious program was part of a wider vision under former President Tsai Ing-wen to harness Taiwan’s technical expertise to reduce its reliance on arms imports. In September 2023, the country unveiled its latest Hai Kun-class submarine, built with domestic technologies as a demonstration of that mission.
- Cost and complexity drive Taipei to change course
- Cancellation jeopardizes AIDC’s in-house combat aircraft expertise
The low-observable, twin-engine Advanced Defense Fighter (ADF), intended to enter production by 2031, was similarly audacious. The ADF was to feature 95% locally developed components, including turbofan engines delivering a combined thrust of 22,000 lb. By comparison, Taiwan’s latest jet trainer, the Aerospace Industrial Development Corp. (AIDC) T-5 Brave Eagle, sources only 55% of parts locally.
There was also a political subtext to the program. The U.S. had rebuffed Taiwan’s desire to buy the Lockheed Martin F-35, forcing the island to make do with a less sensitive, albeit modernized, Lockheed Martin F-16. In the 1990s, Taiwan’s pursuit of the Indigenous Defense Fighter unlocked the sale of an older F-16 and Mirage 2000s from Dassault.
The ADF, though, will be neither that catalyst nor another example of Taiwan’s technical efforts. In early October, under the new Lai Ching-te administration, Defense Minister Wellington Koo announced the program was being cut. He cited immature technologies, eye-watering costs and system integration challenges, saying Taiwan instead will acquire aircraft off the shelf.
With China stepping up military operations opposite and around Taiwan, including massive air and sea drills in October, Taipei’s concerns also may be focused more on the needs of the here and now.
The shift reflects Koo’s new emphasis on defending Taiwan against potential attacks from China, says Tzu-yun Su, division director of defense strategy and resources at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research think tank. That includes greater focus on asymmetrical warfare, in which the ADF may be less relevant.
The ADF program has had its troubles. Speed bumps appeared when the prime contractor, the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, said it would acquire General Electric F414-GE-400 powerplants, signaling that its Vega engine project with AIDC had failed to meet expectations.
The prime contractor also failed to obtain a Technical Assistance Agreement from the U.S. for 17 systems, including avionics and radar. South Korea faced similar issues with its Korea Aerospace Industries KF-21 program and is instead drawing on strong domestic industrial and research capabilities for radars, electronic countermeasures and other subsystems.
Another factor—perhaps the principal one—was cost, Su says. “Taiwan has been heavily modernizing in recent years, including F-16Vs, M1 main battle tanks and submarines, resulting in insufficient resources to ADF,” he notes.
The cancellation is a setback for the AIDC, which has long lobbied for the government to support indigenous aerospace research and development. The AIDC also used the ADF to win backing for a new basic trainer design, arguing that the pace of its aircraft projects from the T-5 to the basic trainer would maintain the R&D stamina to meet the ADF’s requirements.
AIDC says it is backing the government’s decision and will continue to support Taiwan with its engineering resources.
The AIDC may be able to transfer ADF engineers to other projects that could have near-term payoff, Su says, including development of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). In June, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with California-based UAS company Aevex Aerospace.
The Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) will now rely on its fleet of Mirage 2000s, upgraded F-16 A/Bs and Indigenous Defense Fighters to counter the growing aerial pressure from mainland China as it awaits delivery of the much-delayed F-16V, also called the F-16 C/D Block 70. Su says the ROCAF may thus pivot to more investment in ground-based air defense.
The demise of the ADF is a loss, Su says. “I think the development of a local ADF is very valuable, and Korea’s development of KF-21 is a very good case in point,” he says.
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