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Saab is hoping to sign Gripen E contracts with Colombia and Thailand this year.
With much of Europe’s fighter fleets heavily dependent on the U.S., President Donald Trump’s apparent siding with NATO adversaries and calls to annex Canada and Greenland must be causing sleepless nights for some of the alliance’s European leaders. His disruptive words and actions, particularly in targeting tariffs, continue to prompt questions about the reliability of the U.S. as an ally and defense supplier.
But when it comes to combat aircraft acquisition, most European nations have made their decisions. Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) dominates in the region. While larger numbers of the Eurofighter Typhoon are operated now, the F-35 will surpass that as more nations take delivery and bolster their fleets in recognition of both the growing threat from Russia and demands by Washington that Europeans take more responsibility for their own security.
- F-35 operators still await integration of European weapons
- Germany is expected to order another 20 Eurofighters this year
- Orders from India and Indonesia grow Rafale export backlog
Top-Up Orders
Despite the rhetoric of European leaders following pronouncements from Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance, several countries are expected to announce top-up F-35 orders in the coming months. Among them will be Denmark, which, despite the threat of a U.S. takeover of Greenland, wants to grow its fleet from the currently planned 27 aircraft. Others likely to top up include Belgium, Italy and the UK. The Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Romania and Switzerland are either under contract for the F-35 or selected it for their fighter needs.
Only Spain’s and Portugal’s air forces have yet to decide whether to invest in the platform. Portuguese ministers had suggested that Trump’s approach to European allies would leave the F-35 out of the running for fulfilling Lisbon’s fighter requirements, but air force commanders there have indicated the platform is their only real option. As for Spain, a potential purchase of the F-35 remains a political hot potato—yet the only natural option for the country to maintain a two-type front-line fleet and replace its EF-18 Hornets. Interest in the F-35 also has come from Austria, which is looking to start procurement to replace its Eurofighters next year.
Exiting Crisis Mode
Interest in the JSF continues unabated as the wider program emerges from crisis mode. Lockheed is handing over F-35s that had been stored after a delivery pause disrupted the transition plans of several European air forces. However, the defense prime now has other distractions. The awarding of the F-47 contract to Boeing in March produced a new domestic competitor and inspired proposals for a future F-35 makeover, even though the program has struggled to keep up with current obligations.
Aviation Week has not been able to verify Trump’s May 15 claim of a new twin-engine variant of the F-35, which he christened the F-55. Lockheed CEO James Taiclet said in April that the U.S. military did not need a next-generation fighter to deliver new technologies, and the company could repackage some 80% of those next-generation capabilities for the F-35 at about half the cost.
Among them could be new stealth coatings, electronic warfare and networking improvements and even making the aircraft optionally piloted, Taiclet said in late May.
Until then, Lockheed has other worries. The 40P02 software tape—a component of the platform’s Block 4 upgrade—that would provide full operational capability is still in testing, with no update on its progress. The delay has forced Lockheed to deliver F-35s with the 40P01 software, a truncated version limited to training sorties.
Weapon Frustrations
These delays are holding back the integration of European weapons. MBDA’s Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile—a weapon in high demand with JSF customers—finally flew on the F-35B last November, 4-5 years behind schedule. A delta program to integrate the missile on the F-35A is also late.
The UK government now expects integration of the Meteor to be complete by the end of the decade, along with that of the Spear 3 mini-cruise missile, the development of which has been paced with that of the F-35’s Technical Refresh 3 (TR-3) effort. To improve standoff capability, several European customers are acquiring the Kongsberg-Raytheon Joint Strike Missile and the Northrop Grumman Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missiles-Extended Range (AARGM-ER).
Eurofighter Renewal
Production of the Eurofighter appears assured well into the 2030s, as the platform secured a slew of new orders at the end of 2024. Italy and Spain ordered 49 more aircraft in mid-December, and Germany has another order of 20 in the offing to add to its Quadriga order for 38 in 2020.
Export orders are also close to “crystallizing,” Eurofighter CEO Jorge Tamarit Degenhardt told the Royal Aeronautical Society’s Future Combat Air and Space Capabilities Summit in London on May 22. He expressed confidence in the prospect of top-up orders from Saudi Arabia and the potential sale of 40 aircraft to Turkey, an effort that has faced on-and-off support from Germany. Ankara appears to be keen on the Eurofighter in part because it offers airpower parity against Meteor-armed Dassault Rafales in Greece’s inventory, keeping airpower over the Aegean in an uneasy balance. Top-up orders could also come from Qatar.
These orders, which Degenhardt’s predecessor Giancarlo Mezzanatto described as a “renaissance” for the type, are prompting the industrial partners to raise production rates, targeting 20 initially and later 30 aircraft per year (AW&ST Jan. 13-26, p. 17).
Rates are still half of the 60 aircraft assembly lines were producing per year at the height of Tranche 2. Still, the new ramp-up will be challenged by similar pressures facing the commercial aircraft industry, with which Eurofighter production shares many suppliers. The only partner nation that has not yet contracted for additional aircraft is the UK, despite calls from workers’ unions to do so. The country’s focus will likely be on expanding its F-35 fleet and upgrading its Eurofighters with new active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radars.
Radar Complexity
Three variants of the European Common Radar System AESA sensor are under development. The Mk.0 is operational on Kuwaiti and Qatari aircraft. Hensoldt’s Mk.1 will equip German Tranche 2, 3 and 4 aircraft as well as new Spanish jets. Leonardo UK’s Mk.2—offering electronic attack capabilities—flew on a UK Eurofighter last September, and will be retrofitted to Royal Air Force Tranche 3 jets by decade-end. A modified Airbus A320 testbed is supporting Mk.1 radar development (AW&ST Feb. 10-23, p. 55).
In addition to radar upgrades, partner nations have agreed to implement the Phase 4 Enhancements (P4E) package, the most complex yet. The P4E includes new weapons integration, suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) capability and task-based mission management systems tailored to reduce pilot workload for the AESA radar. Two new weapons will be integrated: the Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile and AARGM. The latter is to become Germany’s main SEAD/DEAD weapon, enabled by Saab’s Arexis electronic-warfare suite. Italy also is interested in pursuing this capability. Other updates include cockpit changes and new defensive aid subsystems.
Air forces will be able to apply the P4E upgrade to Tranche 2 and 3 Eurofighters, although how many aircraft will receive the update will be up to the customer nations.
Even though the partner nations are beginning to work on a Eurofighter replacement in the form of either the pan-European Future Combat Air System or the Italian, Japanese and UK Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), Degenhardt said at the summit it would be an “oxymoron” to describe the Eurofighter as a legacy platform. With aircraft that are now in production expected to be in service until 2060, Degenhardt said the type “will have an active role in the FCAS environment during its maturation.”
Rafale Gusting
Dassault’s Rafale continues its export momentum. Over the past 18 months, France secured the first Rafale M sale to India, a 12-aircraft deal with Serbia and pledges from Indonesia to increase its buy beyond the 42 it already has on order. The airframer has a backlog of 220 Rafales, equivalent to more than 10 years of production at current rates—21 were delivered in 2024. The first of 80 Rafales for the United Arab Emirates were delivered in January.
An upgrade program, the F4, is being delivered in phases and includes networking improvements, integration of the Safran AASM 1,000-kg (2,200-lb.) bomb kit and the MBDA Mica NG missile. The latter is due in the final F4.4 phase.
UCAV Wingman
An F5 upgrade planned for the 2030s will prepare Rafale for France’s new nuclear-tipped ASN4G standoff missile and allow it to operate alongside an uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), building on the Neuron demonstrator. The UCAV is intended to penetrate air defenses beyond the Rafale’s current reach. The F5 also will introduce Thales’ RBE2 XG radar. France’s 2025 defense budget allocates €196 million ($223 million) to F5 development and €704 million to UCAV development.
“This stealth combat drone will contribute to the technological and operational superiority of the French Air Force by 2033,” Dassault CEO Eric Trappier said.
Gripen Boost
Saab’s Gripen family is enjoying success as well. Just this year alone, Colombia and Thailand have selected the new Gripen E; the airframer is hoping to wrap up negotiations and finalize both contracts by year-end. The Gripen E is already in front-line service in Brazil (AW&ST Nov. 25-Dec. 8, 2024, p. 37). The type is slated to enter service with the Swedish Air Force’s F7 Air Wing this year, although the Swedish Armed Forces’ annual report says Saab will slow deliveries of the platform in order to hand over a higher maturity level. Final delivery is planned for 2030.
And with Sweden now planning to hold on to 60 of its 105 Gripen C/Ds into the 2030s, a series of new block updates and systems is planned to address obsolescence. The C/D models also are set to receive the Taurus KEPD-350 cruise missile, giving Sweden a long-awaited standoff strike capability.
Hungary gave the C/D model a boost last year with a top-up order, the first for the type in 14 years. In addition, the Czech Republic will extend its leasing contract for the aircraft until it takes delivery of its F-35s.
Sweden also has contracted with Saab and GKN Aerospace to begin studies and technology maturation work that could pave the way for a third next-generation European fighter project in addition to FCAS and GCAP. This work is designed to support a Swedish government decision in 2030 about whether to pursue the development of a new combat aircraft. Such a program likely would see replacement of the Gripen C/Ds first.
The F-35 is not the only U.S. platform being proposed in Europe. Boeing’s F-15EX is being offered to meet a Polish requirement for 32 fighters, with competition from the Eurofighter, F-35 and Block 70 F-16. Small numbers of Block 70 F-16s are arriving in Europe, with deliveries underway to both Bulgaria and Slovakia, which have ordered 16 and 14, respectively. Poland also has initiated plans to upgrade its Block 50 F-16s to the Block 70 standard.
—With Steve Trimble and Brian Everstine in Washington
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