Concerns Grow Over Chinese Space Maneuvering Capability

Newly released details of recent Chinese spacecraft maneuvers tracked by U.S.-based observers show increasing capability in key areas of control for counter inspection, co-orbital anti-satellite weapons and other potential threats.

The observations, disclosed by space domain awareness specialists ExoAnalytic Solutions, come as U.S. space defense leaders continue to warn of the rapid growth of China’s military assets in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO).

“They’re getting better. They’re getting more comfortable,” said Rhett Butler, vice president of ExoAnalytic’s National Security Space Sector. Describing China as “the most active adversary we have today,” he added that “they are actively practicing counterspace techniques and showing that technology.”

Speaking at the National Defense Industrial Association Space Warfighting Forum in Colorado Springs on Aug. 15, Butler said the rise of China’s military space capability has accelerated dramatically over the past decade. “We know that the adversary is busy,” he said. “We were busy fighting the war on terrorism. We battled COVID, and while all those things were going on, the adversary decided to step on the gas.”

“The big thing that we’re seeing in looking at all those activities is that they are being done in a way deliberately to show breakage of our find, fix, track, target, engage and assess combat process,” Butler said. “So, if our adversary is practicing that and showing us that, then we need to listen to them.”

Citing examples of counter-observation operations viewed over the past two years by ExoAnalytic’s observatories, Butler said anomalous acceleration by TJS 2 (Tongxin Jishu Shiyan), a Chinese signals intelligence (sigint) and early warning satellite, indicates growing strength in depth and a willingness to practice rapid maneuvers regardless of excessive fuel usage.

“We noticed it would do some huge maneuvers at different points in time, maneuvers that were kind of unexpected,” Butler said. ExoAnalytic’s network—now numbering around 400 telescopes and observatories worldwide—tracked TJS 2 maneuvering at 44 m/sec. (145 ft./sec.), compared with more standard repositioning maneuver speeds of around 0.5-1 m/s. 

“What we’re seeing with this fleet is they don’t hesitate to burn them out. They will do huge, huge burns but they don’t let it drift out of the slot,” Butler said. “That tells you that they want to do a burn like that, but they want to stay in the mission. If they did a burn that size, we would expect it to travel across the [GEO] belt, but it didn’t do that. They did another burn to stay right there in that slot.”

The implication is that “fuel is not a problem,” Butler said. “The indication when we examine this fleet is that they really intend to do a ‘New York reload,’” he adds, referring to the practice of drawing a second gun when one runs out of ammunition, rather than reloading the first. In practice, this means China’s policy is based on frequent replacement of on-orbit assets rather than the U.S. military’s preferred concept of life extension.

More recent observations also suggest that Chinese fuel management and counter-observation techniques have improved. This was demonstrated earlier this year when a U.S. space surveillance satellite was tasked with inspecting TJS-4, a suspected sigint satellite launched in 2019.

The pass was designed to give the U.S. satellite a Sun advantage and a long dwell time right over TJS-4, but “unfortunately, it didn’t go down that way,” Butler said. Instead, the Chinese spacecraft used similar maneuvers to those seen being practiced earlier with other vehicles. “Now they want to show us, and that’s exactly what they did,” he added. “All of a sudden, we’re not in phase anymore. We don’t have that beautiful Sun angle pass. It will actually be shorter now, right over the top, and the Sun will be at their back.”

Providing another example of a potentially aggressive Chinese maneuver, Butler said the observation network was surprised by the actions of SJ23 (Shijian), a satellite launched in January 2023 that is believed to be capable of rendezvous proximity operations, including close inspection and towing of other satellites with a grappling arm.

“It’s one of the main things that keeps our leaders up at night. Why? Because these things have already demonstrated that they will grab things and take them to GEO,” Butler said.

The observers followed the vehicle from its launch on a Long March 7A rocket from Wenchang on the island of Hainan. Following the second injection burn, it soon became obvious that the intended orbital slot was in a location already occupied by USA 270, a geostationary space situational awareness program spacecraft launched in 2016. “That’s where it goes into orbit, exactly where they’re going into,” he said. “And that’s a slot that we’ve been into for years.”

“We had never seen the threat go in as aggressive as they did on that second burn,” Butler said, explaining that this phase was done under the cover of daylight when optical space observations are impossible. “Daylight is the only time we can’t see even within 400 scopes. Today, we’ve beaten the solar exclusion down to about 4.5 hr.—a little under that. But really the only way to do that is to be in space. That’s a tactic they really tried to exploit the heck out of.”

Observers watched as SJ23 took aim at USA 270. “It was coming in hard,” Butler said. “And it looked like it was going to hit the same spot at the same time, [but] then they did a last burn and they threw the brakes on.” Precise details of the analysis over the reason for the maneuver remain classified, but Butler said: “Every time [Muhammad] Ali boxed, he didn’t always have to throw a punch to make an opponent do something.”