The Y-20 program has shifted from the early design (pictured) powered by D-30KP-2 engines to a high-bypass WS-20 engine.
The Avic Xian Y-20 program will transform China’s airlifter and tanker capabilities over the coming decade, as production pushes the combined fleet of the type toward 200 aircraft.
Among the most important strategic results will be marked strengthening of China’s ability to project airpower well beyond the first island chain, toward Guam and U.S. naval forces in the Western Pacific.
- The indigenous type will displace old Soviet designs
- WS-20 engine performance is crucial
The other main prospective change in the Chinese transport-tanker fleet over the coming decade will be diminishing numbers for the two designs that the Y-20 is replacing, according to a new Aviation Week Network assessment led by Senior Defense Analyst Anna Sliwon-Stewart (see chart). The Ilyushin Il-76 airlifter and refueling versions of the Xian H-6 bomber will disappear.
A further buildup in the collection of Y-9 propeller-driven airlifters from Avic’s Shaanxi works is forecast, but with no sign of the needed replacement type.
An airliner type will likely be required to replace Boeing 737s used as military VIP transports. The obvious choice would be the Comac C919.
In all these developments, the key component is the Y-20 program, which has just made the important shift to a high-bypass engine—the WS-20 from the Shenyang establishment of the Aero Engine Corp. of China. Including 10 prototypes, the air force now has 67 Y-20s, according to the Aviation Week assessment. The initial airlifter production version is the Y-20A, and its successor with the new engine is presumed to be the Y-20B. Corresponding tanker versions are the YY-20A and presumably the YY-20B.
Production of all versions this year will probably total nine, a reduction from last year’s 15, while the factories switch to the WS-20 versions. Noting that the U.S. formerly judged that an economical rate for the Boeing C-17 was no less than one per month, Aviation Week Network Senior Program Analyst Matt Jouppi suggests that such a rate is reasonably likely for the Y-20, too. But for the early 2030s, he forecasts a step up to 13-14 a year.
Conceivably, production could be pushed a little faster to build a radar air-surveillance version, if one appears. Avic spoke this year about the potential of the type for such missions. Public promotion by the group of a possible military design normally indicates a lack of funding. But the usefulness of an air-surveillance Y-20 version is obvious, since China has no other fully indigenous jet design that could carry both a large radar for the mission and a crew of operators.