Depending upon the source, the aviation industry is either desperately short of cockpit crewmembers or has more than enough. 

The Regional Airline Association (RAA) says its members provide passenger service to 98% of the nation’s airports. They have been particularly hard pressed to crew aircraft, resulting in service cuts to many smaller communities. 

“The pipeline of replacement pilots is thousands of pilots below need,” the RAA said in its recent Small Community Air Service and Pilot Shortage Update. Countering the RAA’s perspective, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) said in April that the U.S. has more than enough pilots to meet the demand. 

“Regardless of what the airlines are saying, there is no pilot shortage, and there are more than enough certificated pilots to meet demand here in the United States,” ALPA says. “The aviation industry is currently producing more pilots capable of immediately stepping into the right seat than there are jobs available to them.”

Despite the differences, the industry workforce consensus is that the demand for aviation maintenance technicians (AMT) is falling far short of demand. Boeing’s commercial personnel forecast released in 2022 highlights a worldwide demand for 610,000 AMTs. The real question is how to staff the industry for the future.

In April 2023, the General Accountability Office (GAO) published a draft of its look at industry workforce issues, Aviation Workforce: The Supply of Airline Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics presented before the House Subcommittee on Aviation, Transportation and Infrastructure. For its work, the GAO examined industry and government data on airline pilot and AMTs including professional certifications, student enrollments, and hiring, wage and employment data. It interviewed representatives from domestic passenger and regional airlines, repair facilities, faculty at training schools and aviation industry labor groups. The GAO focused on what’s known about the supply of and demand for commercial airline pilots and AMTs and future projections, as well as the challenges the industry faces to increasing the supply of these personnel according to industry stakeholders. The government also considered actions the industry and the FAA have taken to address supply concerns. Speaking for the GAO before Congress was Heather Krause, director of physical infrastructure.

She noted that based on FAA data, the pilot supply grew from 2017 through 2022 as did student enrollments. More than 60% of the current holders of airline transport pilot certificates will reach age 65 by 2042, with 32% aging out by 2032. Factoring in retirements, the number of ATP-rated pilots will increase between 10-17% from 2022 and 2042, FAA data shows. 

Current pilot hiring remains strong. According to Future and Active Pilot Advisors (FAPA), approximately 4,700 pilots were hired annually between 2017 and 2022 although that growth was not evenly distributed due to the pandemic. The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) reports that overall pilot employment increased from 70,747 in 2017 to 73,000 by 2021. The pilot shortage is especially acute among the regional airlines where those companies lose more captains to mainline carriers, which makes the training of new first officers more difficult, the GAO says. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects pilot hiring to remain strong at least through 2031 although it admitted difficulty in making long-term projections because of a score of variables, primarily the economy.

The aviation maintenance technician supply also grew. The issuance of new A&P certificates rose 11% between 2017 and 2022, which increased the total pool of AMTs 12%, the GAO reports. However, it cautioned that looking at the raw numbers could be misleading because an unknown portion of that larger population may never actually work as an AMT. 

Student enrollments increased from 17,791 in 2017 to about 21,000 by 2021, although according to the DOT, employment of maintenance labor personnel declined by 13% between 2017 and 2022, despite wages rising by 12% during that same period. Pragmatically, AMT shortages have meant significant backlogs at repair facilities in completing maintenance of aircraft. The outlook for AMT hiring will continue to be strong the GAO says.

Challenges

Several obstacles stand in the way of increasing the pilot and AMT population. One is cost. Pilot training, including a four-year degree, is currently running between about $86,000 for in-state and $138,511 for out-of-state students, the data shows. These costs make it unaffordable for students with few financial resources. 

When the topic of the 1,500-flight-hr. requirement for the airlines discussed, there was again a marked difference between the RAA and ALPA perspectives. ALPA advocates for the requirement, calling it a safety issue. While the RAA advocates for a reduction in requirements. Despite the differences, one beneficiary of the 1,500-hr. rule has been the ability for academic institutions to retain flight instructors for a longer period of time. 

Pay and diversity issues remain. The FAA highlighted the considerable difference between the low wages paid to AMTs vs. their responsibility for aircraft safety and airworthiness. The agency also cited the poor visibility of mechanics on the part of the public. In addition, diversity issues remain, with the percentage of female pilots hovering around 5% of the total airline pilot workforce and accounting for 2.6% of the AMT population, data shows.

Actions For FAA And Industry 

Offering higher wages and bonuses to regional airline pilots will help stem attrition, the GAO says. That’s a solution the regional airline industry began instituting about 18 months ago. And while some employers have increased AMT wages modestly, inflation has nearly negated those raises, it says. One key point made before Congress was the increased number of flight schools now owned by several U.S. airlines, such as United’s Aviate Academy and Republic Airways LIFT Academy. The FAA has increased its outreach efforts aimed at both new pilots and AMTs as well as the number of grants awarded, it says. The agency awarded $5 million in grants to pilot applicants and another $5 million under the aviation maintenance grant program. Some stakeholders were skeptical, claiming these relatively small dollar amounts were not large enough to make a substantial impact.