Bizav To Deliver 11,900 Aircraft Over Next Decade, Aviation Week Expects

Aviation Week’s newly released Business Aviation Fleet & MRO forecast predicts deliveries of over 9,000 new business jets and nearly 2,800 turboprops valued at $298 billion over the 10-year-period, from 2025 through 2034.

Unit deliveries are projected to be led by light jets with 27% of all jet deliveries, followed by ultra-long range business jets, super midsize jets, very light jets, large jets and midsize jets.

By retail delivery value, however, new ultra-long range jets with a value of $147.8 billion, and large cabin jets with a value of $41.7 billion, will lead all other categories. North America will accept $187 billion worth of those deliveries, followed by Western Europe at $50 billion.

“After some recent market softening, new aircraft deliveries are still seeing unusually high demand and price increases lately while used aircraft prices have receded a bit. We feel that the delivery market will stabilize on the high side of normal activity we’ve seen over the previous decade,” says Brian Kough, Aviation Week Network’s senior director of Forecasts and Aerospace Insights. “Larger category jets appear on a strong footing as well as single-engine turboprops.”

Deliveries of Textron Aviation’s aircraft are projected to make up the largest segment of the market during the decade, with 26% of total shipments, followed by Gulfstream jets with 16%. Pilatus Aircraft, Embraer and bombardier follow, each with a share of 10%.

Over the 10-year period, the forecast projects close to 6,600 legacy business jets and turboprops to be retired, with yearly retirements peaking in 2031 at 744 aircraft. Top retirees include the Cessna Citation, Hawker 800, King Air 90 and Learjet model aircraft, the forecast predicts.

From 2025 to 2034, the world’s in-service fleet of business jets and turboprops is expected to grow from 35,443 units in 2025 to 40,107 in 2034, a 1.4% compound average growth rate (CAGR) over the 10-year period, with small jets making up the largest segment of the fleet by year 2034 at 27%, followed by large jets at 21% and medium jets at 19%.

Maintenance, repair, and overhaul demand, meanwhile, is projected to total $146.1 billion over the decade, growing at a rate of 3.2% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate). Of the topline results, engine MRO demand is expected to total $39.9 billion over the period, at a CAGR of 4.8%, with more than 49,000 major engine events expected through the decade.

By aircraft segment, large jets are expected to account for the largest share of MRO demand over the next 10 years, with 38% during the period, followed by medium and small jets, with 29% and 18%, respectively.