观点：受2019新冠病毒影响，到五月底，世界上大多数航空公司都将破产
到2020年5月底，世界上大多数航空公司都将破产。如果要避免灾难，现在就需要政府和行业的协调行动。
By the end of May-2020, most airlines in the world will be bankrupt. Coordinated government and industry action is needed—now—if catastrophe is to be avoided.
随着冠状病毒和多个政府出台旅行措施的影响席卷全球，许多航空公司可能已经陷入技术性破产，或至少实质上违反了债务契约。
As the impact of the coronavirus and multiple government travel reactions sweep through our world, many airlines have probably already been driven into technical bankruptcy or are at least substantially in breach of debt covenants.
随着机队停飞，以及运营的航班数远少于一半，现金储备正在迅速减少。取消预订数远远超过了提前预订数，每次有政府出台新的防控建议时，都是在鼓励人民减少飞行。需求正在以前所未有的方式枯竭。尚未有恢复常态的迹象。
Cash reserves are running down quickly as fleets are grounded and what flights there are operate much less than half full. Forward bookings are far outweighed by cancellations and each time there is a new government recommendation it is to discourage flying. Demand is drying up in ways that are completely unprecedented. Normality is not yet on the horizon.
与此同时，虽然各国政府正在应对冠状病毒对健康的挑战，但很明显，几乎没有采取合作行动的本能。信息错综复杂，而且经常截然不同。每个国家都在采用最适合自己的解决方案，无论对错，而不考虑其邻国或贸易伙伴。
At the same time, while governments are grappling with the health challenges of coronavirus, it is clear that there is little instinct to act cooperatively. Messages are mixed and frequently quite different. Each nation is adopting the solution that appears best suited to it, right or wrong, without consideration of its neighbors or trading partners.
例如，当特朗普宣布强行取消对大多数欧洲人的航班服务时，他甚至没有事先告知欧洲政府同行，更不用说与他们进行磋商了。其他政府的表现也差强人意。令人担忧的是，随着一个崩溃的航空体系重新洗牌，类似的国家自利行为将盛行。这很重要，因为航空业远不只是关涉航空公司的健康发展。它对全球交流和贸易也至关重要。
When, for example President Trump peremptorily announced the effective cancellation of airline access to most Europeans, he didn’t even advise his European government counterparts in advance, let alone consult with them. Other governments have performed little better. The fear is that, as a collapsed airline system is reconstituted, similar national self-interest will prevail. That’s important because the aviation industry is about much more than airline health. It is crucial to global communications and trade.
正是由于航空业的核心作用，世界各国政府于1944年召开会议，为战后航空业建立了一个多边框架。值得一提的是，那是在第二次世界大战结束前的几个月。各国认为，一个全面运作的航空体系对未来世界的和平与繁荣至关重要，迫切需要进行协调。
It was because of aviation’s central role that the world’s governments convened in 1944 to establish a multilateral framework for post-war aviation. Notably, that was several months before the end of the second world war. A fully functioning airline system was considered essential to future world peace and prosperity and coordination was urgent.
当时，它们确实在国际民用航空组织的框架内建立了一套引人注目的全球安全制度。但是，即使对航空业在战后世界中的未来角色持乐观态度，事实证明，各国政府不可能超越基本的保护主义。最终的体系（现在已有75年的历史）仍然反映出这种古老的单边主义。
At that time they did manage to establish a remarkable global safety regime, within the framework of the ICAO. But, even with a rosy view of aviation’s future role in a post-war world, it proved impossible for governments to extend beyond basic protectionism. The resulting system—now 75 years old—still reflects that archaic unilateralism.
因此，四分之三个世纪以来，航空公司仍然不可能跨越国界合并。在这个高度工会化的行业中，工会经常会挑起争端，外国所有权受到强烈抵制，全球各国都禁止外国航空公司在另一个国家运营（“航权”）。
Consequently, three quarters of a century on, it remains impossible for airlines to merge across national boundaries. Often provoked by unions in what is a heavily unionized industry, foreign ownership is strongly resisted and foreign airline operations within another country (“cabotage”) is globally proscribed.
其结果是航空业四分五裂，基本上无法生存。尽管现在很明显的是，由于脆弱性，近期出现了一些短暂的有利可图的反转，但几乎没有什么变化。
The result has been a fragmented and largely unviable airline industry. Despite what are now clearly some brief recent profitable aberrations from the resulting fragility, little has changed.
同时，世界其他地区已经从传统的计算方式迁移到了云端。
Meanwhile, the rest of the world has moved from the Abacus to the Cloud.
如今，当我们在一场针对冠状病毒的世界卫生大战中进行竞争时，政府的反应已经变得各自为政，并按照国家方针进行决议，各国之间的协商很有限。
Today, as we contest a world health war against the coronavirus, the government response has been fragmented—and is being resolved along national lines, with limited consultation.
从目前的情况来看，对航空公司危机可能采取的不温不火的应对措施将同样是各自为政、以国家为基础的。这将主要包括救助特定的国家航空公司。如果这是默认的立场，那么摆脱危机就像进入了一个遍地伤亡的残酷战场。
As things stand, the likely tepid response to the airline crisis will equally be fragmented and nationally based. It will consist mostly of bailing out selected national airlines. If that is the default position, emerging from the crisis will be like entering a brutal battlefield, littered with casualties.
冠状病毒后的混乱局面将为重构全球航空业的基础提供独特的机会。但是否存在把握这种可能性的意愿？如果存在这种意愿的话，找到正确的方向就需要领导和认同，在这个最国际化的行业里，民族主义态度是没有立足之地的。
The post-coronavirus chaos will alternatively offer a unique opportunity to reframe the foundations of a global airline industry. But is there a will to grasp that potential? If the will is there, finding the right directions will require leadership and a recognition that there is no place for nationalist attitudes in this most international of all industries.
一些幸存者是不言而喻的。中国的航空公司大多得到政府的支持，因此至少大型航空公司仍有偿付能力；它们的股价反映了这种实际和事实上的政府托底。许多其他主要国际航空公司的股价下跌了50％以上，而三大中国航空公司的股价仅下跌了10％多一点。
Some survivors are self-evident. Chinese airlines are mostly government-supported, so at least the majors will remain solvent; their share prices reflect this actual and de facto underwriting. Whereas many other major international airlines’ prices have dropped by 50% and more, the big three Chinese airlines’ shares have lost only a little more than 10%.
同样，美国的大公司（受到工会支持）也将拥有获得政府补贴的游说权；他们已经在努力实现这一目标。
Likewise, the U.S. majors (supported by unions) will have the lobbying power to access government subsidies; they are already working hard to achieve that.
还有一些欧洲国家的政府，甚至欧盟也可能会对他们的航空公司提供选择性的支持。海湾航空公司也可能得到各自所有者的支持。许多私人航空公司的前景却不是那么光明。
Then there are some other national European governments—and perhaps even the EU—will also provide selective support for (some of) their airlines. The Gulf carriers too are likely to be supported by their respective owners. The prospects for the many private airlines are not always as bright.
简而言之，新冠病毒后的环境具备了地缘政治对峙的所有条件。新冠病毒之后，世界最不需要的就是民族主义的航空政治对抗。
In short, the post-coronavirus environment has all the makings of a geopolitical standoff. The last thing the world needs post-coronavirus is a nationalistic aeropolitical confrontation.
沿着民族主义路线的冲突将对整个航空供应链、机身和航空航天制造商、出租人和金融家产生巨大影响。它将大大缩小规模，对许多卫星活动来说将是灾难性的。
A conflict along nationalistic lines would have colossal implications for the entire aviation supply chain, airframe and aerospace manufacturers, lessors and financiers. It would be greatly reduced in size and would be catastrophic for many satellite activities.
也就是说，甚至在航班不足的影响破坏观光和旅游业之前，观光和旅游业已经在世界各地创造了数亿个就业机会，并为全球商业活动提供支持。
That is, even before the impact of the lack of flying undermines the tourism and travel industries, which account for hundreds of millions of jobs around the world and underwrite global business activity.
除非......
Unless…
不可避免地，一旦我们度过此次危机——我们一定会，世界将是一个不同的世界；航空业也不例外。
Inevitably, once we exit this tunnel—as we will—the world will be a different place; aviation will be no exception.
但要开始政府之间的协调，航空领域是最适合的起点。各国政府在第二次世界大战期间（国际民航组织实际上是在联合国成立一年前成立的，这是鲜为人知的事实，这是国际航空的优先事项）就已认识到这一点。
But there is no better place to begin government coordination than in the aviation sphere. Governments recognized that during the second world war (it is a little known fact that the ICAO was actually established a year before the United Nations, such was the priority attached to international aviation).
确保在新冠病毒抗击战后建立一套健康的航空制度有着巨大的共同利益。近年来，重要的观光和旅游业占据了所有新增就业岗位的20%，这在发展中国家尤为重要。观光和旅游业越来越依赖于各种各样的低票价并与众多参与者竞争。
There are enormous mutual interests in ensuring a healthy post-coronavirus-war airline regime. The vital tourism and travel industry—which has accounted for 20% of all new jobs in recent years, importantly in developing countries—has come to depend on a wide range of low fares and competition, with a multiplicity of entrants.
即使在这场普遍存在的健康危机的最严重阶段尚未过去之前，世界航空力量，即国际民航组织、欧盟、国际航空运输协会、各区域航空协会和主要航空国也必须开始对话，以期开展合作，建立一个真正满足世界社会需求合经济雪球的21世纪机制。
Even before the worst of this pervasive health attack has washed through, it is imperative that the world’s aviation forces—ICAO, the EU, IATA, the regional aviation associations and the key aviation nations—start the dialogue towards cooperation and establishing a 21st century regime that will truly satisfy the needs of the world’s social and economic needs.
除此之外，别无他法。一个凌乱无序的民族主义体系不会是适者生存。它将主要由规模最大、政府支持力度最大的航空公司组成。这种体系将带有民族主义的味道。它也不能满足21世纪世界的需要。
The alternative does not bear thinking about. An unstructured and nationalistic outcome will not be survival of the fittest. It will mostly consist of airlines that are the biggest and the best-supported by their governments. The system will reek of nationalism. And it will not serve the needs of the 21st century world.
任何负责任的政府都不会考虑这种体系。
That is not a prospect that any responsible government should be prepared to contemplate.
这条消息是Peter Harbison在CAPA Analysis Report发表的文章。 CAPA - Centre For Aviation 是《航空周刊》的一部分，是为航空和旅游业提供市场情报的中心。您可以点击此处查看有关CAPA Analaysis更多消息。