More Changes Coming In Part Markets | 零件市场出现更多变化

航空售后市场正处于对新冠病毒危机下进行长期调整的第一阶段。行业恢复的漫长道路可能会使明年航空零件销售放慢脚步。

The aviation aftermarket is just in the first phase of a long adjustment to the virus crisis. Coming up in the long road back to health will probably be a catch-up in sluggish part sales next year.

大量二手零件进入市场将对OEM件和PMA件的销售产生重大影响。从OEM制造商对售后市场的态度来看，整合和变革是他们所期望出现的。

The flood of used parts will have major consequences on both OEM and PMA sales. Consolidation and some changes in OEM attitudes to the aftermarket are expected as well.

在“改装与替换零件协会”（MARPA）的年度会议上，企业售后部门主管和航空分析师在一个专门的小组中讨论了所有这些趋势。

All these trends were discussed by an aftermarket exec and an aviation analyst in a special panel at the annual conference of the Modification and Replacement Parts Association.

GA飞行解决方案事业部总裁Jason Reed指出，在GA Telesis公司的固定客户中目前有四家航空公司，这些航空公司在售后方面的支出仅是疫情危机爆发前的一半。

Four airlines that are regular customers of GA Telesis are spending only about half as much as they were before the virus crisis, notes Jason Reed president of GA’s flight solutions group.

在这笔支出中，有80％的支出用于飞机维护，而只有20％用于零部件采购，这颠覆了疫情到来之前的支出比例。Reed强调说：“他们正在尽最大努力延迟消耗。”

And of that spend, 80% is on maintenance and only 20% on procurement of parts, reversing the usual ratio before the traffic slump. “They are deferring as much as they can,” Reed stresses.

Reed说，航空公司目前仅使用其机队中50%~60%的飞机，如果这些飞机中出现了维护问题，那么航空公司会将它停飞，并采用另一架备用中的飞机。

Carriers are only flying 50-60% of their fleets, and if a maintenance issue arises with a flying aircraft, the airline parks it and deploys a spare plane, Reed says. “The majority are deferring everything.”

GA公司的高管相信，在这种情况下仍然有个好消息，那就是当已经延迟的MRO服务和零件采购周期最终到来时，需求可能会达到一个“波峰”。Reed预计，这股“波峰”将在2021年第二季度到来。

The good news, the GA exec believes, is that “there is a bow wave coming,” when deferred MRO and part procurement must be made up. Reed expects a catch-up in the second quarter of 2021.

但是，有关航空发动机的工作可能会异常繁重。由于预计未来将有大约6000台发动机会从飞机上被拆除，因此大多航空公司现在都没有考虑过对飞机上的发动机进行大修。所有这些发动机和机身拆解所产生的二手零件都将成为对PMA件采购的障碍。

One exception may be heavy work on engines. With something like 6,000 engines expected to be torn down, most carriers are not thinking about engine shop visits now. And all those engine and airframe tear-downs will form a headwind for PMA purchases.

尽管如此，零件采购的经济新纪元可能即将到来。Reed说，由于几家中东航空公司购买了大量的飞机，以致于他们可以从飞机制造商那里免费获得飞机零件。

Still, a new era of economy in part acquisition may be coming. Reed says several Middle East airlines purchased so many aircraft that they were getting parts free from OEMs due to initial purchase credits.

但是现在，这些航空公司不再购买更多飞机，也就无法再获得免费的零件，因此这些航空公司将寻求二手零件和PMA件来节省成本。而PMA件面临的挑战是未来几年大量拆机所带来的大量二手零件。

Now that they are not taking more aircraft, those credits have been used up, and these carriers will be looking to both used parts and PMAs to save money. The challenge for PMAs is the sheer volume of used parts from coming tear-downs.

但是，PMA件仍然可能在机舱内饰等领域得到较多应用，其需求取决于OEM制造商能否及时交付所需的零件。

But one sector where PMAs may remain popular is in cabin interiors. PMA demand here will depend on OEMs’ ability to deliver materials in a timely manner.

Reed预计售后市场将出现重大整合。他认为，在供应商的四个层级中，第二层级和第三层级的供应商将被融合在一起，而且将收购许多无法“度过难关”的小型售后服务公司。

Reed expects significant consolidation in the aftermarket. Among the four tiers of suppliers, he thinks tiers two and three will be squeezed together. And many small aftermarket companies that cannot “weather the storm” will be acquired.

加拿大的投资银行加通贝祥(Canaccord Genuity)常务董事Ken Herbert同意Reed的观点，即零部件OEM厂商看到维修能够更好地维持零件销售。由于飞机交付时间表的变化，初始供应零件行业也承受着特殊的压力。Herbert希望用于飞机初始配置的零件将成为售后市场恢复的最后部分。

Ken Herbert managing director of Canaccord Genuity, agrees with Reed that component OEMs are seeing repairs hold up better that part sales. And there are special pressures on parts for initial provisioning, due to changes in aircraft delivery schedules. Herbert expects parts for initial provisioning to be the last portion of the market to recover.

但是他也看到了零件收购业务正在追赶市场。航空公司并非最善于利用飞机和发动机的剩余寿命，当航空运输量恢复之时，零件的库存可能会很少；而在恢复之后，零件销售可能会回弹。

Herbert希望机身OEM制造商在其售后市场计划上有所削减。

But he too sees a catch-up in part acquisition coming. “Airlines are not the best at using green time. When traffic comes back, they will be low on inventory, and we will see a snap-back when it happens.”

Herbert expects the airframe OEMs to retrench a bit on their aftermarket plans.

波音公司将更加专注于其核心业务，空客公司可能也会这样做，但是，受到PMA和二手零件威胁的零部件OEM制造商可能会在售后市场进行更多投资，许多零部件OEM制造商都将进入售后市场。

Boeing will focus more on its core business, and Airbus is likely to as well, in his view. But component OEMs, threatened by both PMAs and used parts, will probably invest more in the aftermarket. “Lots of component OEMs will step up in the aftermarket.”

像Reed一样，Herbert预计航空航天领域会出现更多的并购活动，但他表示并购活动目前为时过早。“这个行业利率很低，虽然有足够的资本，但存在着不确定性，且 买卖双方的估价之间存在一定的脱节。”

Like Reed, the Cannacord analyst expects more M&A activity in aerospace, but says it is still a bit early for deals to close. “Interest rates are low, and there is plenty of capital, but there is uncertainty. There is a disconnect between valuations by buyers and sellers.”

Reed认为，PMA件销售的最大问题，是它们是否会在北美、欧洲和北亚的传统PMA市场以外产生足够吸引力。

Reed thinks the big question for PMA sales is whether they will become attractive to carriers outside the traditional PMA markets of North America, Europe and North Asia.

这条消息是Henry Canaday在Inside MRO杂志发表的文章。加入航空周刊情报网(AWIN)会员，访问公司、项目、机队和联系人数据库，获取权威解析与市场情报并找到新的业务机会。点击击此预约您的产品演示。