Impact Of COVID-19 On V2500 Aftermarket | 新冠疫情对V2500售后市场的影响
在新冠疫情危机爆发之前，据长期的预测，对IAE集团的V2500发动机（A320的选型）的MRO将保持强劲需求。早在2019年，航空公司常会提到对发动机的维修机会是其主要挑战之一，因为发动机OEM制造商经常零件供应不足，而且市场对单通道飞机发动机的需求也在增加。
Before the COVID-19 crisis stalled the growth of the commercial aftermarket, demand for the International Aero Engines (IAE)-manufactured V2500-family engine, an option for the Airbus A320, was predicted to remain robust in the long term. Back in 2019, operators would commonly mention that finding an engine slot for an overhaul or repair was one of their primary challenges, with parts shortages from the OEMs and heightened demand for current-generation narrowbody equipment contributing factors.
但是，新冠病毒危机下，今年的市场格局发生了变化。疫情引起的航班需求下降导致航空公司推迟或取消昂贵的发动机大修计划，以保持其现金流。因此，发动机售后市场中今年的发动机大修量可能会急剧下降，这已经被发动机制造商和独立的MRO企业所确认。《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的欧洲航空发动机（Aero Engines Europe）版块在9月份进行了一项调查，调查结果验证了这个趋势：有35％的受访者预测2020年的发动机的大修量将下降40％~50％。
However, given the novel coronavirus crisis, the dynamics of the market have changed this year, leading airlines to defer or cancel costly engine shop visits as a means of preserving liquidity. As a result, the engine aftermarket likely will see a sharp decline in shop visits this year, a slowdown already identified by OEMs and independent MROs. A September poll conducted by Aviation Week Network’s Aero Engines Europe also suggests this trend, with 35% of respondents predicting a 40%-50% drop in shop visits in 2020.
针对疫情的发展，《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》对商用飞机机队和MRO预测数据进行了修订。随着V2500发动机的市场逐渐过渡到其后续产品PW1000G，在这个十年里V2500的MRO支出和机队数量将稳定下降。按照新修订的数据，到明年约有2784台V2500在役，而预计到2029年将下降到2049台。据普惠公司称，到2020年第二季度，航空公司对V2500的需求下降了约60％。根据IBA咨询公司的分析，这一数据可能反映了发动机MRO领域的发展态势，即第二季度MRO领域的收入估计下降50%~60％。
This is supported by Aviation Week Network Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast data revised for COVID-19, which anticipates a steady decline in MRO spending and fleet numbers over the course of this decade as the V2500 market gradually transitions to its PW1000G successor. As of next year, the newly revised figure of 2,784 in-service V2500s is expected to be reduced to approximately 2,049 by 2029. In the second quarter of 2020, Pratt & Whitney says demand for the V2500 fell around 60%. This may reflect trends in the wider engine MRO sector, which saw an estimated revenue drop of 50-60% in the second quarter, according to an analysis by consultancy IBA.
在低迷的需求中仍然有一些亮点，那就是发动机封存支持的需求增加，而且预计将进行更多的发动机零件部件交换和较小的MRO任务。租赁公司也有一些活跃的的动向，特别是在V2500的组件需求等领域。 “我们已经看到了许多对V2500零件的需求，虽然我们还有一些发动机在租赁中，但我们并不打算拥有更多的零件，”APOC Aviation发动机贸易副总裁Anca Mihalache在9月欧洲航空发动机版块的小组讨论中说到。
One bright spot among the downturn is more requests for engine preservation support, with more module exchanges and minor MRO tasks expected. Lessors are also seeing some buoyant activity, particularly in areas such as V2500 component demand. “We’ve seen a lot of requests for V2500 parts that we don’t yet have for part-out [though we] do own engines that are still on their lease,” Anca Mihalache, vice president for engine trading at APOC Aviation, said during a panel discussion at Aviation Week’s Aero Engines Europe in September.
在疫情期间，对V2500等型号带有一定剩余寿命的老龄发动机的需求也有所增加。 MTU Maintenance Lease Services的发动机租赁高级经理Fabrizio Laurenti说道，这种需求通常是由于租赁公司而不是航空公司希望推迟发动机大修而产生的。而且据他预计，如果现金短缺且零件价格继续下跌，这种老龄发动机需求增加的趋势将持续。
Greentime engine requests for powerplants like the V2500 have also increased during the pandemic. Typically, this has emanated from lessors looking to postpone shop visits rather than airlines, said Fabrizio Laurenti, senior manager for engine lease at MTU Maintenance Lease Services, which specializes in short-term leases of more than four months. He expects the greentime trend to persist if cash remains short and price reductions continue.
随着航空公司的航班量从短途航线开始逐渐增加，V2500系列发动机以及其竞争对手CFM56发动机可能会继续恢复服务。在谈到空客机队时，AAR销售副总裁Paul Richardson说到：“重要的是我们要记住，有75%的A320ceo的机龄还不到15年，因此考虑到飞机年龄的因素，这些发动机中有一半还没有进行它们的首次大修。”
Newer variants of the V2500, alongside its CFM56 competitor, are likely to continue returning to service as airlines gradually increase their flights starting with short-haul routes. Speaking of the Airbus fleet, Paul Richardson, vice president of sales at AAR, says: “It’s important to remember that 75% of Airbus A320ceos are under 15 years old, so taking into consideration the age side of things, half of those engines haven’t had their first shop visits yet.”
但是，尽管疫情之后的拆机浪潮（包括飞机和发动机）还没有出现，但某些较旧的V2500可能是不错的拆机候选者。据《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》预测，在未来十年内V2500将以稳定的速度退役。明年约有58台发动机将退役，估计有160台从存储取出被重新使用。V2500的退役数量预计将在2026年达到242台的峰值。
However, some older V2500 models could make good teardown candidates, although a post-COVID-19 wave of teardowns—both for aircraft and engines—is not anticipated initially. Aviation Week predicts V2500s will retire at a steady pace over the next decade. About 58 will be retired next year, with an estimated 160 units returning from storage. Retirements for the V2500 are expected to peak at 242 in 2026.
可以预料，航空运输业回归正常，那发动机大修将会大量产生；而由于近几个月来短途飞行的增加，V2500之类的单通道飞机发动机已经看到了这种情况。总部位于阿布扎比的Sanad Aerotech公司预测了这一趋势，已采取相应的措施来调整产能。9月下旬，该公司与普惠公司签署了新的价值2.72亿美元的协议，以增加V2500的MRO服务。
The expectation is that plenty of shop visits will come due once some semblance of normality returns to the market, something that is already being seen for engines like the V2500 as short-haul flying increased in recent months. Abu Dhabi-based Sanad Aerotech, anticipating this trend, has moved to adjust its capacity accordingly. In late September, the company signed a new $272 million agreement with Pratt & Whitney to increase services for the V2500.
这条消息是James Pozzi在Inside MRO 杂志发表的文章。加入航空周刊情报网(AWIN)会员，访问公司、项目、机队和联系人数据库，获取权威解析与市场情报并找到新的业务机会。点击击此预约您的产品演示。