疫情危机之下，虽然航空业都在期望行业复苏能从明年开始，但也有很多人在咨询航空公司的运营方式是否会发生结构性的变化。

As the airline industry is looking into next year with high hopes for the recovery from its worst crisis to finally begin, many ask whether there will be structural change to the way airlines operate. 

关键问题之一，是枢纽形式的运营方式是否能在危机中保护它们在行业中的地位、能否主导国际长途航线市场，以及一些受到局限的美国国内航线市场。毕竟目前几乎到处都存在封锁和旅行限制，空中交通已经崩溃到只相当于2019年市场的一小部分，航空枢纽的关键要素已经被粉碎，特别是连接进出境航班的口岸机场。难道没有观察家们期望像Wizz Air这样的低成本航空公司能在未来几年迅速获得市场份额吗？

One of the key questions is whether hubs will be able to protect their position in the industry emerging from the crisis, dominating traffic flows in the international long-haul market and, with some limitations, the domestic U.S. market. After all, with lockdowns and travel restrictions in place almost everywhere and traffic collapsing to a fraction of 2019 levels, key elements of hub structures—connecting banks of incoming and departing flights in particular—have been crushed. And don’t many observers expect low-cost and direct service carriers like Wizz Air in Europe to gain market share quickly in the coming years?

一些早期数据似乎支持这一想法。McKinsey咨询公司的一项研究显示，与2019年同月相比，枢纽型机场的转运流量在2020年8月下降了81％，而直达飞行需求下降了61％；而直飞城市对的数量从去年的2.8万个下降到了2万个。因此答案可能比看起来要复杂。由于欧洲的大型枢纽机场以洲际航班或欧洲国家之间的航班为主，而相比之下美国的大型枢纽机场更多的执行了美国国内的航班中转，因此美国的大型枢纽机场受的影响比欧洲的要小。而对于卡航来说，由于卡塔尔本身已经“封国”，但由于卡航从其政府那里获得了经济援助，因此他们目前只能执行有限的枢纽连接航班。

Early data seems to support the idea. According to a McKinsey study, connecting traffic in August fell by 81% compared to the same month in 2019, whereas nonstop demand was down 61%. On the supply side, the number of nonstop city-pairs has fallen from 28,000 last year to 20,000. The answer could be more complicated than it seems. Hubs that rely on a larger percentage of domestic connections—such as essentially all the big ones in the U.S.—are structurally less affected even in the pandemic than those in Europe that have a much larger share of international or intra-European connections. And ironically, in spite of all the travel restrictions and the fact that Qatar itself is essentially closed for entry, Qatar Airways’ business is predominantly connecting traffic. Admittedly, the airline can only operate this way because of the financial assistance it gets from the emirate.

实际上在疫情袭来之前，枢纽机场的作用已经发生了变化。McKinsey和国际航空运输协会（IATA）的数据显示，在枢纽机场中转航班的总体份额在2005到2019年间下降了20%，远低于低成本航空公司的平均增长率。但在长途航班市场中的情况有所不同：在长途航线上，转机的旅客份额仅从46％下降到45％。是在一些其他的长途航线上，转机的份额实际上却在增长，例如欧洲到亚洲的转机流量从45％增加到50％，南美到北美从48％增加到60％，而亚洲到北美也从44％增加到52％。因此一个可以得出的结论是，由于廉价的直飞航班的增加，短途的枢纽航线不再那么受欢迎，而在长途航线市场上则相反。

The role of hubs has been undergoing change before COVID-19. McKinsey and IATA data shows that overall, the share of connecting traffic has fallen from 20% in 2005 to 2019, the explanation being the far above average growth of LCCs. But in long-haul markets, the picture is different. The share of connecting passengers dropped only slightly from 46% to 45%. But in the other major long-haul markets the share actually grew: Europe to Asia from 45%to 50%, South America to North America from 48% to 60% and Asia to North America from 44% to 52%. One conclusion one can draw is that short-haul connections have become less popular given that there are now more convenient and often cheaper alternatives while on long-haul markets the opposite has happened.

因此最大的问题是，在未来的行业复苏过程中，长途航线的趋势会改变吗？答案可能是不会；而实际上，疫情危机可能会导致枢纽机场的地位更加稳定，而不是削弱它们的作用。这个情况与飞机技术的进步部分相关。例如波音公司将波音787的卖点设定为使航空公司能够为乘客提供更多的点对点长途航，但这个构想并没有完全实现，波音787约有80%的航线是从全球30个最大的机场间运营的。

The big question is therefore: will long-haul trends change in a recovering industry? The answer may be probably not. In fact, the crisis may lead to stabilizing hubs rather than weakening their role in relative terms. This is linked, in part, to aircraft technology. The 787 was promoted by Boeing as the new machine enabling airlines to offer what passengers really want: point-to-point long-haul flights. But that has not happened to a large extent, around 80% of the 787 capacity is deployed from the 30 largest airports.

现在，空客A321XLR即将到来，计划在未来两年半的时间内投入运营。McKinsey公司认为，订购了A321XLR的航空公司中有65%计划将该机用于点对点的航线。但是，随着疫情间总体流量下降如此之大、持续时间也可能很长，因此A321XLR的角色很可能从执行绕开枢纽机场的航班转变成枢纽机场的开发者。另外，在疫情前的另一个趋势可能会支持这个观点：从二级城市间的流量增长速度快于一级城市之间的增长，但流量通常仍然不足以支持直飞航班，从而传统上需要加强枢纽网络。如果二级城市间航线的回报足够多的话，像A321XLR这样的飞机可能会取代宽体机成为首款测试二级城市间直飞市场的机型。而且一些传统的承运商（如美国联合航空）已经订购了这类飞机，他们得到的回报可能会比预期的更多。

Now the Airbus A321XLR is around the corner, with entry-into-service planned in around two-and-a-half years. A glance at its customers indicates a shift to direct routes may be nearing as 65% of them are in the point-to-point category according to McKinsey. But with overall travel volumes down so much and probably for an extended period of time, the role of the XLR could well change from mainly hub-bypasser to hub-developer. Another pre-crisis trend may support this: traffic from secondary city to secondary city has been growing faster than that between primary markets, but often it won’t be enough to support nonstop flights, instead bolstering hub networks. If enough of that returns, aircraft such as the XLR would probably be the first to test these markets from hubs rather than widebodies. And some traditional carriers like United Airlines have ordered the type already and may benefit from that decision more than they initially anticipated.

但是，由于疫情间的总体流量下降得如此之多，在竞争性枢纽机场上分配的流量就会减少，因此有些航线可能会变得不可持续，但这不应被误认为是航线的结构发生了转变。航线的收益和效率原则上仍然存在，但是航线的空间会更少，就像航空公司本身的空间也更少一样。对于一些没有生存能力的枢纽机场可以重组吗？McKinsey公司认为，有些人可能不得不对此进行权衡以关注城市的地位，根据本地需求优化用航线网络，并在可能的情况下提供枢纽中转服务。

Yet, with overall volumes down so much there is less traffic to be distributed over competing hubs, therefore some may become unsustainable, which should not be mistaken for a structural shift of the model. The benefits and efficiencies are still in place in principle, but there could simply be space for fewer of them, just like there is going to be space for fewer airlines. Is there a way for non-viable hubs to restructure? McKinsey believe some may have to trade down to focus city status—where networks are optimized around local demand with connections offered where they are possible coincidentally. 

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