短期MRO需求下降

虽然要准确预测由于2019新冠肺炎的流行，到今年年底MRO市场将是什么样子并非易事，但有几种情况暗示了它可能会如何发展。在急剧下降后，航空旅行可能会缓慢恢复，而不是马上出现V型反转。此外，并非所有飞机和发动机都会返厂维修，而那些返厂的飞机和发动机可能不会保持在2018-2019年的水平上运行。

While accurately predicting what the MRO market will look like due to the COVID-19 pandemic even by the end of this year is tricky, several scenarios hint at how it may play out.  After falling precipitously, airline travel may recover slowly rather than with a quick V shaped spike.  On top of that, not all aircraft and engines will return, and those that do, may not be operating at 2018-2019 levels.

如果没有执飞，基于利用率的定期维护将减少；但是，对于暂时停飞但并未进入库存的机队，仍然需要进行基于日历的定期保养。MRO美元需求萎缩，复苏取决于各种情况的表现。预计到2020年，短期MRO需求将下降30-60%。在接下来的4年里，MRO的需求可能会缩减540-1220亿美元，这取决于利用率受到多大程度的影响。
 
Without flight hours, utilization-based scheduled maintenance will decline; however, calendar-based service intervals remain for parked, but not stored fleets.  MRO dollar demand shrinks and recovers depending on how various scenarios play out.  Immediate, short-term MRO demand is expected to decline between 30-60% in 2020.  Over the next 4 years, MRO demand could shrink between $54 - $122 billion depending on how utilization is affected.