Airbus A220 Role May Grow In Post-Pandemic Air Transport | A220在疫情后航空运输中的作用可能会增强

空客公司在2017年以几乎零成本代价收购了当时称为庞巴迪C系列飞机项目50.01%的股份，并承诺分担该项目的损失，而当时大多数分析师都对空客此举表示赞赏。他们认为，相比于波音的机队组成，收购C系列飞机将使空客在未来几年的战略形势更好。

When Airbus acquired what was then called the Bombardier C Series in 2017 for essentially nothing plus guaranteed loss-sharing with the Canadian company, most analysts were full of praise for the move. They felt it would put Airbus in a much better strategic position vis-a-vis Boeing for years to come.

《Aviation Week Network -航空周刊》将此次交易称为空客公司的 “世纪交易”。 考虑到该系列飞机巨大的潜力，当空客继续收购庞巴迪在项目中的其余股份时（总共约占该项目的75%，其他25%由魁北克省政府持有），在大多数人看来这是顺理成章的决定。

Aviation Week called the transaction Airbus’ “deal of the century”. And when Airbus decided to take over the remaining stake Bombardier held in what is now called the A220 program, it was seen by most as a natural decision, given the aircraft’s potential. 

但是现在，新冠病毒疫情的爆发改变了世界，也改变了世界的航空运输业，疫情实际上影响了该行业的方方面面。

But now COVID-19 has changed the world—and with it, air transport. The big reset affects essentially all aspects of the industry.

即使A220是当今最为先进的窄体客机，该机也不可避免地遭受了巨大的冲击。而尽管该机的交易战略和项目的长期前景仍然较为乐观，但A220的初始商业计划即将成为历史，未来的发展计划需要重新编写。当然实际上在收购以后A220项目即将开始腾飞之时，很多人就已经意识到该机的未来计划需要重新规划。而至少在短期和中期阶段内，该机的角色能否满足空客的设想还存在很多不确定性。

Even the most modern narrowbody available today is suffering enormously from the impact. And though the strategic rationale for the deal and the positive long-term outlook for the program itself remain, the original business plan for the A220 is history and needs to be rewritten. That realization has come just as the program was about to take off in earnest. There are ample uncertainties about whether it can fill the role that Airbus envisioned, at least in the short and medium term.

 

空客在2019年交付了48架A220，与最初的每月四架飞机的产能计划相符。而空客曾计划提升该机的产能，以希望在2025年前实现盈利并证明该机第二条总装线的引入是合理的。A220的第二第总装线开设在美国亚拉巴马州莫比尔城，该总装线于2020年5月正式启用。

In 2019, Airbus delivered 48 A220s, in line with the initial baseline production rate of four aircraft per month. The plan was to take it upward as fast as possible from there, both to have the program profitable by 2025 and to justify the politically driven introduction of the second final assembly line in Mobile, Alabama, which officially opened in May.

当然，受疫情的影响现实中的事情恰恰相反。在2020年的前8个月中，空客仅交付了13架A220，除非从现在到年底之间的交付量突然激增，否则该项目都无法达到分析师们最悲观的预期。

What happened, of course, is quite the opposite. In the first eight months of 2020, Airbus delivered only 13 A220s.Unless there is a sudden spike in deliveries between now and year-end, Airbus will fall short of even the most pessimistic analyst projections for the program.

根据魁北克省政府的命令，从2020年3月下旬至5月，魁北克省米拉贝尔的总装线关闭了七个星期。该生产线现在每月生产3架A220，到2021年中期将达到每月5架，比原计划晚了一年。而莫比尔的总装线每月只建造1架飞机。

The Mirabel, Quebec, assembly line was closed for seven weeks from late March and into May following a Quebec provincial government order. The line is now producing three aircraft per month and is going to five by mid-2021, one year later than planned. Mobile is building one aircraft per month.

按当初的计划，A220两个生产中心加起来每月可生产14架飞机：米拉贝尔生产10架、莫比尔生产4架；而如果需要，飞机产能可以通过增加投资来进一步扩大。空客保持着在2020年代中期产能为14架的目标，但也警告说在疫情的影响下随着市场的变化，飞机生产也要适应变化的市场需求。

Combined, the two production centers have a capacity of 14 aircraft per month: 10 in Mirabel and four in Mobile. That capacity could be expanded further with more investment should that be needed.  Airbus is keeping to its target of expanding output to 14 by mid-decade but cautions: “This could be adapted as the market evolves over the coming years and in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.”

Avitas咨询公司的高级副总裁Adam Pilarski说：“目前的产能是合理的，他们可以而且应该尝试扩大产能。我对空客的计划充满信心……[该机可以]很容易达到1000架的规模。”

“The production numbers are reasonable,” says Adam Pilarski, senior vice president at consultancy Avitas. “They can and should try to ramp it up. I have confidence in the Airbus plans. . . . [It can] easily be a 1,000-aircraft program.”

到2020年，达美航空已接收3架A220-100；另外有10架飞机分别交付给加拿大航空和埃及航空，这10飞机是在米拉贝尔基地交付的。在疫情流行之前，A220主要的销售挑战就是找到足够的美国以外的客户，以使米拉贝尔的总装线可以加速生产、或至少可以维持现有的生产速率。但是在可预见的未来，无论是在米拉贝尔基地还是莫比尔基地，恢复生产或是增加生产的前景都很不乐观。

In 2020, Delta Air Lines has taken three A220-100s; 10 additional aircraft went to Air Canada and Egypt Air and were delivered from the main base in Mirabel. Even before the novel coronavirus pandemic hit, Airbus’ main sales challenge for the A220 was to find enough customers outside the U.S. to either enable the planned Mirabel ramp-up or at least sustain the existing rate well into the future. The prospects of resuming growth, or even sustaining rates—both there and in Mobile—are not good for the foreseeable future.

另一个问题是A220对少数美国客户的高度依赖，尤其是未来五年内。根据《Aviation Week Network - 航空周刊》的“舰队发现”数据库，JetBlue、达美航空和Breeze Airways是A220莫比尔总装线的三个主要客户。到2021年，这三家公司将合计接收26架飞机，随后在2022年接收40架、2023年接收52架、2024年接收44架。

Another issue is the high dependence on just a few U.S. customers, particularly for the next five years. According to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet Discovery database, JetBlue, Delta and David Neeleman’s start-up Breeze Airways are the three main customers for the Mobile line. In 2021, the three are due to take a combined 26 aircraft, then 40 in 2022, 52 in 2023 and 44 in 2024.

在未来的四年中，莫比尔计划依靠另外三个大客户（加拿大航空、AirBaltic和法国航空）来实现生产，但这三家公司总共只有65架订单，无法满足总装线的生产，即使是在目前产能大幅降低时也是如此。根据“机队发现”的数据，到2023年加拿大航空将接收到剩余的37架A220，其的27架计划在2021和2022年交付。AirBaltic有28架飞机订单，最近决定将交付期限延长到2024年。原定的最后50架飞机计划于2023年底交付。法航计划在2021年接收5架飞机，在2022-2024年每年将接收14架。

Over the next four years, Mirabel is planned to depend on three large customers—Air Canada, AirBaltic and Air France—but their combined backlog of 65 aircraft is not nearly enough to fill production capacity, even at much-reduced rates. Air Canada is due to take delivery of 37 remaining A220s through 2023, 27 of them planned for 2021 and 2022, according to Fleet Discovery. AirBaltic has 28 more aircraft on firm order and recently decided to stretch deliveries into 2024. The last of 50 aircraft originally were agreed to arrive at the end of 2023. Air France is slated to take five aircraft in 2021, rising to 14 each year in 2022-24.

租赁公司Air Lease Corp.在2019年订购了50架A220-300，大部分要等到2025年以后交付。这些飞机的生产可能在米拉贝尔和莫比尔同时进行。

Air Lease Corp. placed an order for 50 A220-300s in 2019, but the bulk will arrive only from 2025 onward. Production could be split between Mirabel and Mobile.

A220在竞争中处于有利地位，它唯一的真正竞争对手是巴航工业的E-Jet E2系列飞机；但是在与波音的合作计划中止之后，巴航工业的实力遭进一步削弱。与E2系列飞机正面竞争的是A220-100，根据机舱布局该机的座位级别位于E190-E2和E195-E2之间。但是，A220-100的最大起飞重量为63吨，比E190-E2的56.4吨和E195-E2的61吨更重；而且A220-100的航程达3400海里，而E190-E2和E195-E2的航程分别为2800海里和2600海里。

The A220 is well-positioned competitively. Its only real competition is the Embraer E2—and Embraer is further weakened after the collapse of the planned commercial aircraft partnership with Boeing. The A220 version that does compete with the E2 in terms of size is the -100. Depending on cabin layout, it sits somewhere between the E190-E2 and the E195-E2. However, at a maximum takeoff weight of 63 tons, it is much heavier than the E190-E2 (56.4 tons) and even the E195-E2 (61 tons). And it has a lot more range: 3,400 nm versus 2,800 for the E190-E2 and 2,600 for the E195-E2.

当然，这些机型在表面上是竞争关系，但实际上它们确实针对着不同的细分市场。 A220系列中大部分订单都是较大的A220-300，而A220-100适用于狭窄的长途航线，但航空公司如果在较短的航线上运营该机的话，由于该机重量更大使其运营短程航线的成本会更高。原则上，使用E2系列飞机可以更好地服务于欧洲或美国的传统支线市场，但是包括最小的E175-E2在内的所有E2型号均不符合美国支线航空中“范围条款”的限制，这对E2系列进入美国市场设置了障碍。然而A220并不需要面对这种限制。

While they are competing superficially, the types really address different market segments. The A220-100 is a niche aircraft—most of the A220 orders are for the larger -300 version—suitable for long, thin routes. Airlines pay a cost penalty when they use it on shorter routes in spite of its weight. More traditional regional connections in Europe or the U.S. are better served with the E2 in principle, though none of the E2 versions including the smallest E175-E2 is compliant with scope clause limitations. But neither is the A220.

 

较大的A220-300实际上超出了E2系列飞机的市场范围，两者在大小和航程方面都不同。空客还在研究该机的升级版本，以使其航程增加到4000海里左右，能够从美国飞越大西洋或向拉丁美洲飞更远的距离。而A220的定位还可以进一步扩展，以涵盖目前波音737-7和波音737-8的市场。

The larger A220-300 is effectively beyond the range of the E2. This is true not only in terms of size but also, literally, range. Airbus is working on versions of the aircraft that would extend the range to around 4,000 nm, making it capable of flying across the Atlantic or deep into Latin America from the U.S. But the A220 is also well-positioned to be stretched further, to cover what is now the Boeing 737-7 and -8 market.

尽管在指标上存在差异，但这些机型间仍然存在部分竞争。现实中有些航空公司即使不运营适合A220航线也在使用A220，其部分原因是空客在交易中可以使A220和其他机型（如A320neo）组合销售。这也是巴航工业试图与波音合作的原因之一，希望提供类似产品组合带动E2系列的销售。

Despite the differences, there will nonetheless be competition. The reality is some airlines are operating the A220 even if they do not need its range, in part because Airbus can combine A220 deals with other models such as the A320neo. That is why Embraer tried to tie up with Boeing and offer a similar portfolio of aircraft.

有人认为由于航空公司致力于使用更小的飞机，以降低旅行成本和收益风险，因此A220和E195-E2这类飞机将从疫情中更快的恢复。空客表示A220机队中有80％已于7月恢复了飞行，而且这种趋势仍在继续，很快就可以完全恢复。

It has been argued that the A220, and the Embraer 195-E2 for that matter, will benefit in the COVID-19 recovery as airlines focus on minimizing trip costs and revenue risk by flying smaller aircraft. Airbus says 80% of the A220 fleet had returned to service by July—with the trend continuing, essentially toward a complete return.

但机队恢复了飞行并不一定意味着未来的销售也会增长，因为目前很少有航空公司能够投资购买更多的飞机。 甚至连空中客首席执行官Guillaume Faury最近也评论说，他认为此次严重危机影响了客机的交付和航司的财务状况，因此航空市场前景不确定；今年夏季的航空运输量没有达到市场期望的水平，因此危机可能比以往的影响更加深远。在这种情况下，航空公司高管会专注于风险遏制，还是会再次大量采购飞机而成为市场的焦点？

But that does not necessarily translate into future sales, as few airlines are currently in a position to invest in more aircraft. Even Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury recently commented that he believes that a steep, “quite brutal,” ramp-up in production could arrive as early as 2022 as airlines rebound. In such a scenario of fast catch-up growth, will airline executives focus on risk containment, or will it be all about market share again?

这条消息是Jens Flottau在Aviation Week & Space Technology发表文章的摘要。 在全文中 (英文）可以获取有关空客公司是否会继续A220-500项目进行辩论的详细信息。