多达20%的下级供应商可能退出航空航天和国防产业
经验丰富的供应链专家告诉《航空周刊》，由于新冠肺炎疫情扰乱了商用航空市场，损害了国防工业基础，未来18个月，多达五分之一的航空航天和国防（A&D）较低级别供应商可能退出该行业。
As many as a fifth of lower-tier suppliers in aerospace and defense (A&D) could exit the sector over the next 18 months as COVID-19 disrupts the commercial aviation market and hurts the defense industrial base, seasoned supply chain experts have told Aviation Week.
“无论是通过合并还是减员，你可能会看到接近20%的比例，”新合并的Aero Precision和Kellstrom Defense高级执行官、私募股权投资者的长期合作伙伴Chris Celtruda说。“你越是深入了解供应链群体，你会发现压力水平、流动性挑战越大。”
“Either through consolidation or attrition you’re probably going to see a number closer to 20%,” said Chris Celtruda, a senior executive at the newly merged Aero Precision and Kellstrom Defense and a longtime partner to private equity investors. “The stress levels, the liquidity challenges grow the deeper you go in the supply base.”
Celtruda于5月12日在《航空周刊》网络研讨会上表示，以2013年联邦政府的关闭为导火索，当时长期业务计划出现了类似的突然减弱，随后有10-15％的小型供应商退出了业务。但这次的衰退更糟糕。
Using the 2013 federal sequestration as a forerunner, when there was a similar, sudden softening of long-term business plans, 10-15% of smaller suppliers exited the business in the aftermath, Celtruda told an Aviation Week webinar May 12. But this downturn is worse.
“我不认为我们会看到快速反弹。我想我们会看到类似9/11之后的情况，”当时航空公司花了五年时间才恢复到危机前的运力水平。
“I don’t think we’ll see a snapback. I think we’ll see something similar to after 9/11,” which took five years for airlines to get back to precrisis capacity levels.
一级和原始设备制造商将为某些二级至四级供应商，特别是那些拥有知识产权的关键零部件供应商提供财务援助。但是Celtruda预计他们会破产和出售资产，例如出售库存或制造能力，而其他人则选择完全转行其他市场。
Tier 1s and OEMs will provide financial lifelines to certain Tier 2-4 providers, especially those with intellectual property and who are critical parts providers. But Celtruda expects bankruptcies and asset sales, such as inventory or manufacturing capability, while others elect to go into other markets completely.
AeroDynamic Advisory的常务董事兼知名行业专家Kevin Michaels对Celtruda的冷静态度表示认同。
Celtruda’s sober outlook was shared by Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory and another recognized industry expert.
“我们特别关注二级、三级和四级供应商，”Michaels在网络研讨会里提到。“供应商真的面临着一连串的事件。在空客，Success 1.0及2.0，Scope-plus的合作也发生了供应链挤压。然后，供应商被要求合理调度资本支出，以便在单一通道中实现大规模增长。之后我们遭遇MAX停飞，现在又遇到了新冠肺炎危机。所有这些都大大削弱了供应链。”
“We’re especially concerned about the Tier 2, 3 and 4 suppliers,” Michaels told the webinar. “Suppliers have really faced this whole litany of events that have happened. We had the supply chain squeeze from the Partnership for Success 1.0 and 2.0, Scope-plus at Airbus. Then suppliers were asked to deploy capex for a massive ramp-up in single-aisles. Then we had the MAX shutdown, and now we have the COVID-19 crisis. All of this has significantly weakened the supply chain.”
Celtruda和Michaels表示，这不仅是一个商业航空航天问题，也是一个国防工业基础问题，五角大楼最近的担忧证明了这一点。F-35供应商洛克希德马丁公司也承认联合攻击战斗机项目受到影响。
Celtruda and Michaels said it is not only a commercial aerospace issue, but also a defense industrial base issue, as evidenced by recent Pentagon concerns, and acknowledgment by F-35 provider Lockheed Martin that the Joint Strike Fighter program has been affected.
他们说，一半的国防供应链正面临现金问题。美国东北供应商出现“严重”闲置，那里是发动机制造生态系统的所在地，在华盛顿州、威奇托、达拉斯-沃思堡、亚利桑那州和加利福尼亚的航空和国防供应商枢纽也有大量空置。
Half of the defense supply chain is seeing cash concerns, they said. There has been “massive” idling of Northeast U.S. suppliers, home to engine-making ecosystems, and also in Washington state, Wichita, Dallas-Fort Worth, Arizona and California hubs for both aerospace and defense suppliers.
流动性仍然是最重要的问题。在对《航空周刊》网络研讨会参与者进行的现场调查中，有70％的受访者将现金和信贷列为主要关注点。另有15％的受访者表示，飞机制造商、原始设备制造商和航空公司的期望不切实际。超过12％的人提到行业整合，但只有2.5％的人认为劳动力供应和期望是一个问题。
Liquidity remains the overarching concern. In a live survey of Aviation Week webinar participants, 70% of respondents listed cash and credit as their leading concerns. Another 15% surveyed said unrealistic expectations from airframers, OEMs and airlines. More than 12% said sector consolidation and just 2.5% cited labor availability and expectations as an issue.
Celtruda表示：“长期以来，从制造商到出租人再到航空公司，再到制造和MRO供应链，链条中的每个元素都面临着流动性风险。”问题从原始设备制造商的减产到MRO和维修零件需求的持续减少，再加上将被拆机的飞机的停飞潮，所有这些都紧随供应链挤压和更高的建造率而来。“供应链的许多层面肯定存在困境，而供应链的顶端也存在困境。”
“For the first time in a long time, every element in the chain—from the manufacturers to the lessors to the airlines, and then the manufacturing and MRO supply chain—is seeing liquidity risks,” according to Celtruda. Problems range from OEM production rate cuts to ongoing reduction in demand for MRO and repair parts, along with a wave of parked aircraft that will be parted out—and all of this coming on the heels of supply chain squeezes and a run-up to higher build rates. “There is definitely distress in a number of layers of the supply chain and there is distress at the top of the chain.”
令流动性担忧更加复杂的是，缺乏应对糟糕时期的经验。Celtruda指出：“供应链群体里的这代领导者和运营商没有真正经历过行业拐点。“是的，我们在国防方面遇到了[2008]金融危机和[2013]隔离。但是，2001年9月11日是很久以前的事了，而上世纪90年代末的航空业裁员也是很久以前的事了。因此，不同企业的反应速度也发生了一些变化。”他补充道。
Compounding liquidity concerns is a lack of experience with bad times. “There is a whole generation of leaders and operators in the supply base that really haven’t gone through an inflection point,” Celtruda noted. “Yes, we had the [2008] financial crisis and the [2013] sequestration on the defense side. But Sept. 11, 2001, was a long time ago, and the aerospace layoffs of the late 1990s were a long time ago. So, there has been some changes at the rate in which different businesses have responded,” he added.
最终，对于许多仍参与航空航天与国防产业的低层供应商来说，问题变成了“你是买家还是卖家”他们预计合并将显著增加，同时期待来自外部投资者的兴趣。这些投资者仍然将航空航天与国防产业视为一项有吸引力的长期投资，并且现在交易价格更高。
Ultimately, for many lower-tier suppliers who remain in A&D, the question becomes “whether you are a buyer or a seller.” They expect consolidation to pick up significantly, but also interest from outside investors who still see A&D as an attractive long-term investment—and now at better deal prices.
这条消息是Michael Bruno在 Aerospace Daily & Defense Report 发表的文章。《Aerospace Daily & Defense Report 》是航空及国防领导人了解每日市场简报的主要渠道。获取有关国防、军事和民用航天类项目、预算及政策的最新重要情报。点击此处查看有关 Aerospace Daily & Defense Report 更多消息。