With vaccinations being rolled out globally and countries slowly exiting lockdowns, airlines are anticipating an uptick in summer.

But months after months, these expected schedules have not really happened due to the uncertainties of the pandemic. In order for traffic forecasts to finally stick, Aviation Week editors think that vaccination levels have to reach a point where COVID-19 spikes no longer occur, or if they do, lockdowns or travel restrictions are no longer needed.

While the risk of such restrictions remains, it is impossible for airlines to know whether an artificial slump in demand is just around the corner. Even in the longer term, there still are too many unknowns related to a post-COVID recovery to allow reliable predictions.