Boeing 737 MAX 10 at the Paris Air Show.
Boeing anticipates a demand for almost 42,600 new airlines over the next 20 years, a number that is slightly more optimistic than Airbus’ forecast.
Boeing released its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook June 17, just before the Paris Air Show opened. The US manufacturer projects a global demand for 42,595 new jets by 2042, valued at $8 trillion. This was based on passenger traffic continuing to outpace global economic growth of 2.6%, the global fleet nearly doubling to 48,600 jets and expanding by 3.5% per year, and airlines replacing about half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
Airbus released its 20-year forecast earlier in June, saying it expected demand for 40,850 airliners. That was a significant uptick from the 39,500 aircraft the European manufacturer predicted in 2022. In its 2023 forecast, Airbus said the large majority—around 32,600 aircraft—would be narrowbodies and 8,200 would be widebodies, while there would also be 2,510 freighter deliveries, with 920 of those being new and 1,600 being conversions from passenger aircraft.
The mix in Boeing’s Outlook is a little different, saying that narrowbodies will account for 75% of all new deliveries, or 32,420 aircraft. Widebodies will make up 20%, or 7,440 aircraft, of deliveries, and there will be demand for 1,810 regional jets and 2,800 freighters, with 925 cargo aircraft being new-builds.
Boeing also says that Asia-Pacific markets will represent more than 40% of global demand, with half of that total coming from China. South Asia's fleet will expand more than 7% annually, the world's fastest rate, with India accounting for more than 90% of the region's passenger traffic. North America and Europe each will account for about 20% of global demand. And LCCs will operate more than 40% of the narrowbody fleet in 2042, up from 10% 20 years ago.
Related Content
