Embraer forecasts regional aircraft growth for Africa

Embraer Commercial Aviation has forecast that airlines in Africa and the Middle East will take delivery of 530 new jets in the 70 to 130-seat segment over the next 20 years with a list price value of $25 billion.

Speaking at the Marrakech Airshow, Mathieu Duquesnoy, Embraer’s vice president EMEA said these orders would represent 8% of the worldwide demand for the segment in the period. It is estimated that 65% of the total new deliveries will be added to support market demand growth while 35% will replace ageing retiring aircraft.
Duquesnoy also said that 40% of the new sales would be for Africa. But he recognised that the figures could be conservative adding that 17 of the world’s top 30 fastest growing countries in 2014 will be in the region.
“Air transport in Africa and the Middle East will steadily grow 5.3% and 7.1% per annum over the next 20 years, respectively - above the world average of 4.8% -, more than tripling the air traffic to, from, and within the region,” he said.
The current trend for airlines - in the Middle East particularly - to use wide-bodied aircraft for short haul flights with fewer than 110 passengers is causing uneconomic load factors,
“Currently, 60% of the larger single aisle jet flight departures among African and Middle Eastern destinations have up to 110 passengers on-board on average, resulting in low load factors. The region is mostly composed by low- and mid-density markets. Some 88% of all markets have demand densities of up to 300 passengers daily each way, and approximately 50% of them are not served nonstop,” Duquesnoy said.
The E-Jets family has logged nearly 1,500 orders and over 1,000 deliveries to date. The aircraft are in service with some 65 customers from 45 countries. In Africa and the Middle East, Embraer has more than 75% market share among aircraft in its segment. Nearly 70 E-Jets are currently in service with seven operators from six countries in the region, the company said.