Catchment Analysis: Newcastle-Madrid Demand Signals Untapped Potential

Newcastle International Airport (NCL) and Madrid Barajas Airport (MAD) remain unlinked by nonstop service, despite sustained demand that suggests a viable opportunity for airlines willing to reenter the market.

OAG Schedules Analyser data shows that Ryanair last served the route between March 2017 and October 2018, operating 2X-weekly Boeing 737-800 flights and offering approximately 756 two-way weekly seats. Since the Irish ULCC withdrew, no carrier has restored scheduled service between northeast England and the Spanish capital.

However, demand has not diminished. ASM’s Catchment Analyser indicates that 81,234 two-way passengers traveled between NCL’s 50-mi. catchment and Madrid in the 12 months to the 2025 second quarter—equivalent to 111 passengers per day each way (PPDEW). Of that total, 66% originated in the Newcastle catchment, underlining the outbound strength of the market, while 34% were inbound visitors.

The data also reveals substantial leakage to competing airports. London Heathrow was the single largest gateway, handling 13,624 two-way passengers, followed by London Stansted (13,066), London Gatwick (12,570) and Manchester (12,378). Edinburgh also captured 11,720 passengers.

Notably, Heathrow and Stansted are located 252 mi. and 232 mi., respectively, from Newcastle as the crow flies, highlighting the extent to which travelers are prepared to surface long distances to access nonstop Madrid service. Newcastle itself accounted for 12,912 indirect two-way passengers from the 50-mi. catchment, primarily connecting via Amsterdam and Heathrow.

From a national perspective, Madrid is well served from the UK. During the summer 2026 season, 10 UK airports will offer nonstop service to the Spanish capital, including Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Liverpool, London City, London Gatwick, London Heathrow, London Luton, London Stansted and Manchester. Ryanair, Iberia, easyJet, British Airways, Air Europa and Wizz Air all serve the market. However, northeast England remains absent from that map.

At Newcastle, Spanish connectivity is strong overall. In summer 2026, the airport will serve 12 Spanish destinations, including the Canary Islands, with Palma de Mallorca, Alicante and Malaga among the largest by seat capacity. Four airlines—Jet2.com, Ryanair, TUI and easyJet—operate Spain routes from NCL. Jet2 holds a 24% share of total airport capacity, followed by Ryanair at 20.4% and easyJet at 16.9%.

EasyJet is growing 62% year on year following its decision to open a three-aircraft base at NCL from March. The expansion lifts its network to 19 routes from the airport, including major leisure and city destinations such as Alicante, Malaga, Palma, Paris and Nice. While Madrid is not currently included, the airline’s enlarged presence—and its five-route UK-Madrid portfolio elsewhere—positions it as a potential candidate to test the market.

For Ryanair, which previously operated the route and maintains a significant NCL footprint, reentry could also be strategically aligned with its broader Madrid network. 

NCL highlights its route opportunities on Routes 360, the digital platform for route development professionals.

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