Global air passenger demand as measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) “moderated” in 2025 as the post-pandemic surge in travel slowed, IATA said.
Global RPKs in 2025 rose 5.3% year over year, well below 2024’s 10.4% growth rate, according to figures released by IATA on Jan. 29. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the slower airline traffic growth in 2025 “returns industry growth to align with historical growth patterns after the robust post-COVID rebound.”
Capacity as measured in available seat kilometers (ASK) lagged demand, rising 5.2%, driving load factor up by 0.1 percentage point to 83.6%, the highest ever full-year load factor. “Supply chain challenges” were the leading cause of supply outpacing demand in 2025, Walsh said. The aircraft manufacturing supply chain was “the biggest headache for airlines in 2025,” he added.
“People clearly wanted to travel more, but airlines were continually disappointed with unreliable delivery schedules for new aircraft and engines, maintenance capacity constraints and resultant cost increases that are estimated to exceed $11 billion,” Walsh said. “Airlines scrambled to accommodate the demand by keeping aircraft in service longer and filling more seats on every flight.”
Walsh added high load factors demonstrated “these measures were an effective band-aid, but we need a real solution. It’s vital that 2025 proves to be the nadir of the supply chain crisis, and 2026 marks a rebound.”
Total domestic RPKs rose 2.4% year over year in 2025, down from growth of 6% in 2024. International RPKs grew 7.1% year over year, down from growth of 13.7% in 2024.
“This slowdown reflects the normalization in growth following the strong rebound that occurred as borders progressively reopened after the pandemic,” IATA said. “Growth deceleration was most evident on routes involving the Asia-Pacific region. Given that many markets in the region reopened later than those in other parts of the world, the rebound was still particularly strong in 2024.”
But IATA said Asia-Pacific airlines remained a standout in 2025, posting a 10.9% year over year rise in full-year international RPKs, the highest increase of any region. That was still significantly down from 26% traffic growth for the region in 2024 versus 2023.
IATA noted Brazil was the fastest growing domestic market in 2025, with the country’s airlines posting an 11.1% year-over-year rise in RPKs. By contrast, the U.S. domestic market contracted by 0.6% in 2025. The U.S. also saw load factor drop 1.9 percentage points, the biggest decline of any country.
IATA said U.S. domestic RPKs dropped 2% year over year in December, “marking a second consecutive month of decline following a brief expansion in October. Possible contributing factors include operational disruptions arising from extreme weather and economic uncertainty.”
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