Expectations for the Airbus A321XLR Ramp Up

Five years after being launched at the 2019 Paris Air Show with 48 firm orders and 89 commitments, the Airbus A321XLR is ready to shake up long-haul networks. With nearly 500 XLRs on order by early October, this variant of the 30-year-old A320 has become a commercial smash hit for the European manufacturer.

When Iberia operates the first XLR transatlantic revenue flight, as is scheduled to take place on Nov. 14 between Boston, US, and Madrid, the long-haul narrowbody niche occupied by the Boeing 757 will begin to pass from Seattle to Toulouse.

“The unique selling point is its range of up to 4,700 nautical miles and 11 hours of flying time, while still keeping the low-cost economics of the single aisle. The transformation is allowing airlines to suddenly open new point-to-point routes that before they could not afford to put a widebody on, or certainly not year-round,” Airbus VP single-aisle marketing Antonio Da Costa said. “It allows an increase to a second or third frequency where a widebody might kill the economics.”

However, the XLR is causing range-promise anxiety among some airlines. During certification, the A321XLR’s promoted range deficit was roughly 200 nm to 4,500 nm, caused by weight-increasing safety features around the 8,700 gal. rear center fuel tank.

Denver-based ULCC Frontier Airlines has canceled its 18 XLR orders, while New York-based JetBlue Airways, which launched the 4,000 nm range A321LR back in 2021, has deferred or canceled most of its 13 orders citing commercial, economic and range shortfall factors. “I’m trying to calibrate whether that range is accurate anymore,” JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty said. 

Airbus, trying to allay customer concerns, says the XLR can still meet 90% of its promised city pairs, and the company is working to overcome the shortfall over the next two years. Airlines like Air Canada are using a roughly 4,000 nm baseline, taking into account factors like seasonal headwinds traveling west, particularly during the winter.

Some are not convinced, stressing that the XLR is a derivative of the 30-year-old A320, not an entirely new aircraft design.

“You’re talking about an aircraft that long since maxed out on the wing and engines, and you will have weight and balance issues when you try to do all of this with more fuel and tanks. You’re not going to get the range. It might be a little over the line for some people,” AeroDynamic Advisory managing director Richard Aboulafia said.

Still, Airbus and its customers describe the XLR as a Swiss Army Knife of the air: it can let an airline do widebody routes at narrowbody costs; permit it to launch new markets; or allow it to add frequencies or extend seasons.

“Rubs hands together in anticipation,” Brian Znotins, American Airlines SVP network planning, posted on X.

Like the Boeing 787, which began fragmenting and hub-busting global networks over a decade ago, Airbus has identified 350 unserved routes that could be opened by 2030.

“Everyone has decided that small is beautiful and that direct beats hub-and-spoke,” Aboulafia said.

Air Canada Plans

Air Canada is particularly bullish, as it looks forward to 26 XLRs scheduled to begin delivery in late 2025.

“We’ve got many check marks to make this aircraft a game changer for us,” Air Canada EVP revenue & network planning Mark Galardo said, pointing to the country’s demographics, rapid growth and strategic location. “It will increase the breadth of our network with more international destinations that will probably rival the US majors in terms of network size.”

Connecting secondary cities with hubs and going year-round from seasonal is a recurring theme. Galardo lists Porto in Portugal, Marseille in France, and<\/p>

Dakar in Senegal to Montreal as prime candidates.

Air Canada, however, is initially focused on leveraging the XLR on domestic and US transcontinental routes.

“Whether it be Toronto or Montreal to the western part of Canada or to California, or from Vancouver to New York City, we will round out the schedules to offer better premium product consistency. The opportunity cost of putting in a widebody is just simply too big. Instead of flying one widebody per day on Toronto-Calgary, we can fly three A321XLRs a day,” Galardo said.

The carrier will also “right-size” thin seasonal European markets like Scandinavia and secondary UK and French markets, or markets like the Montreal-Toulouse “Airbus shuttle.”

“We’ve got our eyes on a bunch of them,” Galardo said.

Meanwhile, LATAM Airlines, which expects to take the first five of its XLRs in 2026, believes the aircraft could cover operations from several locations in South America to North America and the Caribbean, as well as from northeast Brazil to North America and Europe, according to a spokesperson.

Icelandair, which will start replacing its 757 fleet with XLRs from 2029 with the 13 aircraft it has on firm order, is leasing four 4,000 nm A321LRs as a bridge to the longer-legged XLR. The high latitude island nation’s geography meshes well with the XLR’s capabilities, CEO Bogi Bogason said.

“We will be able to serve all the west coast of the US and destinations in the Middle East and Asia, further strengthening our business model and providing opportunities for future growth. Destinations such as California and Dubai will be within our reach.”

Bogason acknowledges that the carrier will adjust its cargo capacity strategy because of the XLR’s reduced cargo lift relative to the 757.

Adding frequency and capacity and flying year-round on existing routes by de-risking away from current widebodies are weapons in the XLR’s quiver. Iberia will replace most of its A330s serving Madrid-Boston with the XLR, allowing it to go daily by Dec. 15. Previously seasonal Madrid-Washington Dulles service will go year-round when the second XLR enters service in mid-January 2025.

Aer Lingus, with six A321s on order, was originally the XLR’s launch customer. The Irish carrier was forced to forfeit that position to IAG partner Iberia following a now-settled pilot dispute. That cloud has a silver lining, as Aer Lingus will be the first carrier to deploy the type on new routes from its Dublin base. Beginning in April, Nashville will be served four times per week year-round, except for a six-week suspension in January and February. Dublin-Indianapolis nonstop will follow in May, becoming the only nonstop link between Indiana and Europe, with 4X weekly flights.

American Airlines, with 50 XLRs on order, will initially replace the existing premium-heavy A321T on flagship transcontinental runs when the type arrives in 2025. Ultimately, XLRs will be rostered to connect hubs like Chicago O’Hare and Philadelphia to secondary European destinations via new markets, converting some to year-round or adding capacity. At the Routes Americas conference in June 2023, Jason Reisinger, American’s managing director global network planning, said the airline could serve a route from a smaller US city, like Raleigh, North Carolina, to London Heathrow.

“We can do a number of things with the XLR, including serving routes that cannot support a 787, but where we still have a nice onboard product,” he said.

American Airlines retired its 757s, 767s, and A330s around the pandemic period, suffering from a shortage of European capacity that will have to wait. “Realistically we’re not thinking about new XLR transatlantic flying until late 2025 at the earliest, or 2026. They can’t come early enough, but the priority is on the transcons,” Znotins said on a company podcast.

American’s oneworld global alliance partner, Qantas, is taking a similar approach, deploying its first of 28 XLRs scheduled for delivery in April 2025 on transcontinental routes like Sydney-Perth. The XLR seems overkill for five-hour sectors, but international is on the table. The XLRs could be deployed on routes to Southeast Asia, such as India from Perth, as well as for LCC sibling Jetstar.

With the first of its 50 A321XLRs scheduled to arrive at the end of 2025 or in early 2026, United Airlines operates a fleet of 29 757-200s with an average age of 28, and the XLR is poised to replace them by the end of the decade.

“Generally, the A321XLR could take over existing 757 transatlantic routes and could replace or supplement a small portion of the 767 flying we do today,” a United spokesperson said. These routes include connecting United’s New York Newark and Dulles hubs to secondary European destinations like Brussels, Dublin, Edinburgh, Porto, Reykjavík, Shannon, Tenerife and Lima.

India and ULCCs

Nearly 40% of the XLR’s orderbook flows from the ULCC sector. Fast-growing Indian LCC IndiGo tops the current XLR orderbook, with the first of 70 aircraft scheduled to commence service in the second half of 2025. The carrier’s planned ramp-up to premium long-haul international services from India will be fueled mainly by the XLR and 30 Airbus A350s.

“The A321XLR significantly extends our reach by some additional two hours, allowing us to cover markets up to 8.5 hours from India. This enhanced range, combined with the aircraft’s capacity, positions it as a vital asset for establishing direct non-stop connections to several markets currently underserved from India,” IndiGo SVP network planning & revenue management Abhijit Dasgupta said.

Airbus’ Da Costa cites Wizz Air UK’s opening route from its London Gatwick base to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, as a ULCC developing a new market because there is now a low-cost opportunity to fly between those two points.

Both Wizz’s first deliveries of 47 aircraft and its first route will be delayed until 2026, however. “We need to ensure we have the right engines for the harsh Abu Dhabi environment,” a Wizz Air spokesperson said, referencing the Pratt & Whitney GTFs. A daily 2,554 nm flight between Milan Malpensa and Abu Dhabi will follow.

But how will customers react to such long flights in a dense 239-passenger narrowbody?

“We are already flying several five- to six-hour long ultra-low-cost routes in other markets with great satisfaction to our customers, such as Rome-Abu Dhabi. The XLR will extend our outstanding value proposition to seven- to eight-hour long flights, which is only slightly longer,” a spokesperson said.

Beirut-based Middle East Airlines (MEA), which was the first airline announced as an A321XLR operator concurrent with the type’s first order, expects to take delivery of its first of four leased aircraft in 2026. “The airplane will be used on point-to-point sectors in Africa [from Beirut]. The lower seat cost makes it the best discovery aircraft to test new markets and operate more direct flights,” MEA general manager Yassine Sabbagh said in early October. The airline said those plans remained in place despite the escalation of war in the region.

Airbus, meanwhile, touts widebody comfort in a single aisle with carry-on space for every passenger in the overhead bins.

But the headline grabbers of the XLR are the economic advantages of a narrowbody compared to widebodies: higher utilization rates, shorter turnarounds, crew commonality, lower de-risked trip costs, and comparable seat costs per mile.

As is always the case for a new aircraft type’s entry into service, excited expectations and reality are about to come head-to-head.