Airbus sees industry remaining resilient to economic conditions and predicts growth

Airbus forecasts strong ongoing demand for commercial aircraft according to its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF). The European manufacturer predicts that by 2030 some 27,800 new aircraft will be required to satisfy future robust market demand.

The combined value of the over 26,900 passenger aircraft (above 100 seats) and more than 900 new factory built freighters forecast by the GMF is US$3.5 trillion.
As a result, by 2030 the global passenger fleet will more than double from today’s 15,000 aircraft to 31,500. This will include some 27,800 new aircraft deliveries of which 10,500 will be needed for replacing older less fuel efficient aircraft. The trend towards larger aircraft will continue, in order for the aviation sector to keep pace with future growth in demand.
Airbus said that believes people need and want to fly more than ever before. Over the next 20 years the aviation sector is expected to remain resilient to cyclical economic conditions as in the past. Airbus forecasts that revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) will grow by an average 4.8 per cent per year, which is equivalent to traffic more than doubling in the next 20 years.

Demand for very large aircraft (VLA) seating more than 400 passengers, like the A380, has risen over 2010 forecasts (1,738) to 1,781 aircraft valued at US$600 billion. This represents a 17 per cent share by value or six per cent share by aircraft units. Of these, nearly 1,330 are passenger aircraft needed to cater for the concentrated traffic volumes linking the world’s mega cities. Regionally, some 45 per cent of the world’s VLA’s will be delivered to Asia, 19 per cent to Europe and 23 per cent to the Middle East.