How low and how long? Those were the primary questions at last month's SpeedNews 23rd Annual Commercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Con- ference where some of the industry's leading forecasters took turns speculating on the length and depth of the downturn and its likely effect on the aerospace supplier community (disclaimer: SpeedNews and ATW are both units of Penton Media, Inc.).

A year ago we expressed concern over a growing tendency on the part of certain environmental organizations to "move the goal posts" as soon as the airline industry came close to scoring a green goal. Unfortunately, that habit was fully displayed in the UK last month. On Feb. 5, Adair Turner, Prime Minister Gordon Brown's "environment czar," proposed that one way to reduce carbon dioxide output from aviation is simply to set a limit on how many leisure air trips outside the country UK citizens will be permitted to take.

THE WINTER MIGRATIONS OF CANADA GEESE, displayed in marvelous V formations that remind us the air is a bit colder than before, typically run in a straight north-to-south trajectory. It's not inconceivable that the birds that probably struck US Airways Flight 1549 also were bound for Charlotte. January in south central North Carolina is fairly mild compared to Long Island. Mecklenburg County has some good creeks and parks to nest in, some splendid grasses and grains. If the winds were favorable and they flew as fast they could, their trip might take about 12 hr.

Air France KLM's pending acquisition of a major stake in Alitalia means that the consolidation of Europe's airline sector is entering its endgame (with the caveat that one must be careful about making assumptions concerning anything involving Alitalia). Those airlines remaining on the outside will find it extremely difficult to stay independent, should they desire to do so, as the competitive muscle of the major groupsAF-KLM-AZ, Lufthansa-Swiss-Austrian and to a lesser extent British Airways-Iberiamakes itself felt.

The late November seizure of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi International Airport by political protesters and the more limited incident by environmentalists at London Stansted in December have again illustrated the air transport industry's extreme vulnerability to disruptions caused by external forces. We hope that these incidents will provide a wakeup call to governments and airport operators that may have grown sleepy and overconfident in recent years as the immediacy of 9/11 has receded.

It is hard to argue with British Airways CEO Willie Walsh's observation that the April 1-Sept. 30 financial semester "will be remembered as one of the bleakest on record," what with record fuel prices, the credit crisis and the failure of several airlines.

NO ONE KNOWS JUST WHAT MIX OF INVESTMENT AND INGENUITY will work to turn the economy around and drive it back north. It's probably safe to assume, however, that it won't just be Washington and bailouts.

Delta Air Lines CEO Richard Anderson hit the nail on the head last month when he remarked that "You would rather deal with demand cessation than $150 oil." Anderson's observation sums up the peculiar good news/bad news situation in which the airline industry finds itself this autumn.