Defense

BLACK HAWKS DOWN: The Australian Army temporarily suspended Black Hawk helicopter flight operations Jan. 19 after finding “a number of fractured bolts during a routine maintenance check,” the Australian defense ministry says. “The precautionary suspension will remain in place to allow an investigation into the cause of the fracture to be completed,” says Col. Stephen Evans, acting director of general aviation. Navy Seahawk helicopters, which have a different design in the affected area, were not grounded.

LONDON — The European Neuron unmanned combat air vehicle demonstrator was rolled out on Jan. 19 in what is shaping up to be a critical year for UCAVs in Europe. Prime contractor Dassault says the software integration for Neuron is in its final stages, and ground and engine tests will start soon. First flight of Neuron is planned for mid-2012 at the Istres flight test center in France, where the air vehicle has been assembled and was rolled out.

The fighter market is forecast to see increased growth during the next decade, primarily because of the impact of the Lockheed Martin F-35/Joint Strike Fighter program. The U.S. military is by far the world's largest potential market for fighters, and the Pentagon has centered its future fighter requirements entirely on the F-35 JSF program.

Researchers are all too familiar with the huge costs, high risks and frustratingly slow pace of high-speed flight testing, not to mention the scarcity of opportunities. Now a Colorado-based team is developing a small supersonic UAV (below) for low-risk testing at a fraction of the cost of existing systems. Dubbed the Gojett (graduate organization jet engine technology team), the ambitious project is aimed at breaking the supersonic test paradigm and filling part of the void left by retirement of reusable flying testbeds like the legendary X-15.

India's concept program for a stealth unmanned combat air vehicle (Ucav), the Aura, has received crucial support from the Indian air force (IAF) in the form of a recommendation that it be accorded “major project” status, a move that will ensure generous and regular infusions of funds.

The worldwide demand for special-mission aircraft for everything from drug interdiction to medevac is leading to a corresponding need for visual enhancement systems. The increase in drug-trafficking activity in many parts of the world has stimulated growth in the market for smaller special-purpose aircraft engaged in surveillance and targeting of illegal activity. To help meet this demand, nearly all manufacturers of regional/commuter business jets and corporate turboprops now offer variants that can serve in multiple roles.

“We're going to shrink to win.” Scott Donnelly, the chairman, president and CEO of Textron, is referring to his strategy of cutting the company's cost structure while simultaneously investing in new products and chasing new business. The question is whether he will ultimately be forced to execute that strategy on a larger scale. Textron, a 32,000-employee conglomerate and parent company of Cessna, Bell Helicopter, Textron Systems and Lycoming, has come under varying degrees of shareholder pressure for more than three years to sell off underperforming operations.

Combat Aircraft: Growing demand for stealth technology gives Lockheed Martin's F-35 a dominant position in the global fighter market, even if the U.S. cuts the number it buys. And where the F-35 leads, new trainers will follow. See pp. 49 and 54. Commercial Transports: They face new challengers this time around, but Airbus and Boeing rake in orders in a high-stakes struggle for the narrowbody market. Their airline customers warn of higher costs and lower profits in 2012. See pp. 76, 80, 86 and 88.

Andrew Krepinevich, Jr., is president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, one of Washington's most influential think tanks, and serves on the Defense Policy Board. He discussed the changes and challenges of U.S. strategy with Senior North American Editor Paul McLeary. AW&ST: The U.S. is about to make a major strategic shift away from fighting in the Middle East and Southwest Asia to a naval and air-based posture in the Western Pacific. How difficult do you envision the transition?

Is the U.S. dominance of the large military airlifter market nearing its end? The coming decade should show whether new entrants can force a major change in the balance of power governing the export of military transports. A combination of factors could lead to the shift in market dynamics: the anticipated arrival of new competitors—principally the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390—growth in overall production numbers and a decline in U.S. spending.

Significant defense orders, strong government subsidies and growing demand for domestically produced commercial aircraft have provided optimism regarding the Russian aircraft industry.

Michael J. McCord, the U.S. Defense Department's comptroller, warns of dire consequences if more than $1 trillion in approved cuts to military spending over 10 years are allowed to take effect. The result would be the lowest number of ships since World War I, the smallest ground force since 1940 and the smallest Air Force ever, he recently told investors.

Few times in aerospace history can have been as difficult for forecasters as recent months. Things are changing, that is certain, but there are so many conflicting signs that the direction of the industry is almost impossible to project. Debt crises, oil prices, climate change, competition for resources and many other factors inject unprecedented unpredictability into the equation.

Manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers are forecast to produce 1,675 aircraft worth $21 billion during the next decade. Of those, 984 will be jet-powered and will be worth $15.3 billion. Annual production of military trainers is projected to gradually drop to 126 aircraft in 2016 from about 200 in 2011. Production will begin to rise again in 2017, reaching about 160 aircraft by 2020.

Whether the threat is from insurgents, pirates, drug smugglers or illegal immigrants, whether the resources requiring protection are in the ocean or the jungle, the need for surveillance is increasing. This is driving demand for special-mission aircraft—manned and unmanned—the sensors to equip them and systems to analyze and disseminate the intelligence collected.

Technologies being offered up by the aerospace industry for the Next Generation Jammer are still closely held, but clues are emerging.

The majority of the 161 unclassified milsats forecast for production in the next decade will go into service in the near term with production tapering in the outyears.

With crude oil beginning the year above $110 a barrel, and little prospect of aviation fuel prices coming down anytime soon, the imperative to find alternative sources to ensure price competition and supply security remains strong. But as 2012 progresses, industry is looking to governments to capitalize on the rapid technical progress made in approving bio-derived jet fuels by providing the funding support necessary to scale production up to commercial quantities and bring prices down to competitive levels.

More than five years after its first flight, Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter has been flown at night for the first time. The F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing development aircraft AF-6 on Jan. 18 conducted a series of approaches to Edwards AFB, Calif., in twilight and darkness. Night refueling and formation tests are planned for this year as the program targets completion of 1,001 flights and 7,837 test points in 2012, a slight increase over 2011's 972 flights.

The U.S. Air Force's tanker contract has been awarded, Airbus and Boeing have moved to upgrade the A320 and 737, and NASA's space shuttle has flown its last mission. It's time to move on to 2012 and the next round of big developments in the aerospace and defense industry. Here are 12 to keep an eye on.

Strike weapons is the only segment of the world missile-systems market expected to see significant increases in value and production through 2016, with the lightweight missile subsegment projected to experience rapid growth. The world missile market is forecast to see a slight increase in value from a low of $11.18 billion in 2012 to a high of $11.81 billion in 2016, but production is expected to drop, reflecting the high price of some systems. Annual purchases of lightweight missiles is currently low, but will reach $60 million in 2016.

A new opportunity is on the horizon for companies hoping to sell unmanned aircraft to support the missile defense mission in the U.S. This is welcome news for companies seeking to break into this space or expand this type of work because late last year the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) selected incumbent Boeing to manage the massive Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system for another seven years.

This time it was supposed to be different for the Franco-German aerospace giant—a smooth transition of power, with a new management team building on the foundation put in place by its predecessor.

U.S. military officials are keen on saying they never intend to fight the last war. This is their way of indicating a focus on future conflicts, not on the past. Apparently, this sentiment does not apply to the interservice skirmishes at the Pentagon. The U.S. Army and Air Force are in the final throes of hashing out an updated agreement on the time-sensitive, direct-support airlift mission, the latest chapter in a years-long saga over how to ship supplies to remote soldiers despite two wars and one stunted buy of Alenia's C-27J.

The worldwide missile systems market—worth $58.2 billion over the next five years—will see a slight increase in value during the period, from a low of $11.18 billion in 2012 to a high of $11.81 billion in 2016. At the same time, production is anticipated to drop, reflecting the high cost of some of the systems being built. In all, 197,605 missiles of all types are forecast for production in 2012-16.