Defense

More than five years after its first flight, Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter has been flown at night for the first time. The F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing development aircraft AF-6 on Jan. 18 conducted a series of approaches to Edwards AFB, Calif., in twilight and darkness. Night refueling and formation tests are planned for this year as the program targets completion of 1,001 flights and 7,837 test points in 2012, a slight increase over 2011's 972 flights.

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The U.S. unmanned aerial system fleet is tenfold what it was two decades ago, and the Pentagon is spending nearly $4 billion annually on UAS of all types. When the U.S. launched the 1991 war against Iraq, the anticipated value of the UAS market per year did not exceed $400 million, including sales of target drones. Barring major new financial crises in Europe and the U.S., unmanned platforms—along with electronic warfare and cyberoperations—are considered to be the technologies destined to survive the defense drawdown.

Andrew Krepinevich, Jr., is president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, one of Washington's most influential think tanks, and serves on the Defense Policy Board. He discussed the changes and challenges of U.S. strategy with Senior North American Editor Paul McLeary. AW&ST: The U.S. is about to make a major strategic shift away from fighting in the Middle East and Southwest Asia to a naval and air-based posture in the Western Pacific. How difficult do you envision the transition?

The U.S. Air Force's tanker contract has been awarded, Airbus and Boeing have moved to upgrade the A320 and 737, and NASA's space shuttle has flown its last mission. It's time to move on to 2012 and the next round of big developments in the aerospace and defense industry. Here are 12 to keep an eye on.

The Pentagon should tighten the way it uses security exceptions in contracting for certain goods and services, says a recent report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). “DOD (Department of Defense) intelligence agencies and special access programs frequently use the exception, but are generally excluded from reporting procurement data,” GAO says in its January report.

The heavy fighter engine market continues to be dominated by Pratt & Whitney and General Electric. The production of F100s and F110s remains active for F-15 and F-16 orders, primarily exports; after these fighters end production around 2016-17, the engine OEMs will shift production to modules to support the large world fleet.

Is the U.S. dominance of the large military airlifter market nearing its end? The coming decade should show whether new entrants can force a major change in the balance of power governing the export of military transports. A combination of factors could lead to the shift in market dynamics: the anticipated arrival of new competitors—principally the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390—growth in overall production numbers and a decline in U.S. spending.

Strike weapons is the only segment of the world missile-systems market expected to see significant increases in value and production through 2016, with the lightweight missile subsegment projected to experience rapid growth. The world missile market is forecast to see a slight increase in value from a low of $11.18 billion in 2012 to a high of $11.81 billion in 2016, but production is expected to drop, reflecting the high price of some systems. Annual purchases of lightweight missiles is currently low, but will reach $60 million in 2016.

LONDON — In a sign that European defense companies may be stepping up activities to rationalize their product portfolio, Rheinmetall and EADS’s Cassidian unit have agreed to a joint venture (JV) covering tactical and medium-altitude unmanned aircraft and cargo loading systems. Cassidian will control 51% of the JV, although Rheinmetall appears to be providing the bulk of the technology content. In return, Rheinmetall is due to receive an undisclosed cash consideration once the deal closes, which is expected mid-year pending anti-trust authorization.

Export sales will become increasing important as manufacturers try to sustain production levels built up over recent years. For the U.S., that means securing foreign military sales for Bell, Boeing and Sikorsky helicopters while European manufacturers market armed scout and support rotorcraft to the U.S.

Significant defense orders, strong government subsidies and growing demand for domestically produced commercial aircraft have provided optimism regarding the Russian aircraft industry.

A new opportunity is on the horizon for companies hoping to sell unmanned aircraft to support the missile defense mission in the U.S. This is welcome news for companies seeking to break into this space or expand this type of work because late last year the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) selected incumbent Boeing to manage the massive Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system for another seven years.

BLACK HAWKS DOWN: The Australian Army temporarily suspended Black Hawk helicopter flight operations Jan. 19 after finding “a number of fractured bolts during a routine maintenance check,” the Australian defense ministry says. “The precautionary suspension will remain in place to allow an investigation into the cause of the fracture to be completed,” says Col. Stephen Evans, acting director of general aviation. Navy Seahawk helicopters, which have a different design in the affected area, were not grounded.

Production of military transports is forecast to rise sharply during the next decade, especially in the latter half due mostly to the introduction of the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390.

Michael J. McCord, the U.S. Defense Department's comptroller, warns of dire consequences if more than $1 trillion in approved cuts to military spending over 10 years are allowed to take effect. The result would be the lowest number of ships since World War I, the smallest ground force since 1940 and the smallest Air Force ever, he recently told investors.

This time it was supposed to be different for the Franco-German aerospace giant—a smooth transition of power, with a new management team building on the foundation put in place by its predecessor.

LONDON — The European Neuron unmanned combat air vehicle demonstrator was rolled out on Jan. 19 in what is shaping up to be a critical year for UCAVs in Europe. Prime contractor Dassault says the software integration for Neuron is in its final stages, and ground and engine tests will start soon. First flight of Neuron is planned for mid-2012 at the Istres flight test center in France, where the air vehicle has been assembled and was rolled out.

Engine upgrades are a key element of product-line revamps underway at helicopter manufacturers as they work to stimulate a recovery in a commercial market where new-centerline powerplants for rotorcraft are rare events.

Few times in aerospace history can have been as difficult for forecasters as recent months. Things are changing, that is certain, but there are so many conflicting signs that the direction of the industry is almost impossible to project. Debt crises, oil prices, climate change, competition for resources and many other factors inject unprecedented unpredictability into the equation.

U.S. military officials are keen on saying they never intend to fight the last war. This is their way of indicating a focus on future conflicts, not on the past. Apparently, this sentiment does not apply to the interservice skirmishes at the Pentagon. The U.S. Army and Air Force are in the final throes of hashing out an updated agreement on the time-sensitive, direct-support airlift mission, the latest chapter in a years-long saga over how to ship supplies to remote soldiers despite two wars and one stunted buy of Alenia's C-27J.

The fighter market is forecast to see increased growth during the next decade, primarily because of the impact of the Lockheed Martin F-35/Joint Strike Fighter program. The U.S. military is by far the world's largest potential market for fighters, and the Pentagon has centered its future fighter requirements entirely on the F-35 JSF program.

The production of F100s and F110s remains active for F-15 and F-16 orders, primarily exports.

Manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers are forecast to produce 1,675 aircraft worth $21 billion during the next decade. Of those, 984 will be jet-powered and will be worth $15.3 billion. Annual production of military trainers is projected to gradually drop to 126 aircraft in 2016 from about 200 in 2011. Production will begin to rise again in 2017, reaching about 160 aircraft by 2020.

The worldwide missile systems market—worth $58.2 billion over the next five years—will see a slight increase in value during the period, from a low of $11.18 billion in 2012 to a high of $11.81 billion in 2016. At the same time, production is anticipated to drop, reflecting the high cost of some of the systems being built. In all, 197,605 missiles of all types are forecast for production in 2012-16.