Graham Warwick (Washington), Larry Dickerson (Forecast International)
Turkey's revelation in October that it was negotiating to buy air-defense systems from China shocked not only its NATO allies, but also Western missile manufacturers. Although not a done deal, Ankara says China's offer of CPMIEC FD-2000 anti-missile systems costs less and promises better technology transfer.
Israel's defense budget of approximately $15 billion puts the nation at 16th place in defense expenditure, after South Korea, Australia, Canada and Turkey, but ahead of the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Spain and Pakistan. In terms of its estimated share of GDP, Israel's defense budget dropped from a double-digit level in the 1990s down to about 6% since 2010. Yet these statistics do not tell the full story.
Middle East defense needs are diversifying. Nations are going beyond new combat aircraft and weapons, seeking intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and other assets, as well as increased participation in industrial and technical matters.
Russia's government does not plan to cut its military expenditures, even in the face of economic stagnation. The draft federal budgets for 2014 and for 2015-16, approved in the first reading by the State Duma at the end of October, continue to call for double-digit increases in spending on national defense despite the overall budget deficit planned for these years.
As Chinese and Russian air defense systems met notable milestones last year, the U.S. Ground-Based Missile Defense (GMD) system—the most sophisticated anti-missile system deployed—continued to produce disappointing test results. GMD overseers at the U.S. Missile Defense Agency hope to conduct a successful flight test of the system early in 2014; the last successful intercept took place in December 2008. A string of failures were due largely to complications with the new Raytheon Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV); Boeing is the GMD prime contractor.
The entry and rapid success of the Robinson R66 in the light turbine helicopter market has sent shock waves through the industry. The bigger manufacturers were preoccupied with the growing light-twin market, and happy to leave Frank Robinson's hugely successful piston-engined R22 and R44 to dominate the general-aviation market. They had virtually rejected their light singles—many with designs roots in the 1960s and 70s—and all but starved them of investment.
From commercial airline fleet renewal through fighter procurement challenges to industry consolidation in the face of budget pressures, 2014 looks certain to be a pivotal year for aerospace and defense. Here are 12 areas to keep an eye on. 787
South Korea's 2014 defense budget, if approved as is, will see a 3.8% increase—good news by global standards, but well below the country's 10-year average growth rate of 7%. The government's campaign pledge to boost social welfare programs is squeezing defense spending, pushing its share of the budget below 15%.
Across Europe, nations are taking innovative approaches to foster their home defense industries despite limited budgets, without relying on complex international programs. After the 2011 Operation Unified Protector in Libya, for example, Italian military leaders noted the high cost of mounting long patrols at a considerable distance using supersonic fighters. This year, the Italian air force will be pursuing at least two new programs unveiled in 2013 and aimed at reducing the cost of persistent operations.
MUNICH — Airbus Military has set itself a target of obtaining two export contracts for the new Airbus A400M Atlas airlifter by 2016. CEO Domingo Urena-Raso, who will shortly become head of the Military Aircraft division of Airbus Defense and Space when EADS changes its name to Airbus in the New Year, said he was hopeful of achieving at least one contract in 2014 and another in 2015. These would be allocated for the first export production slots for the airlifter, which are due to become available in 2017.
As the more information emerges about the recent fraud case involving overseas port service—or “husbanding”—contracts, U.S. Navy Secretary Ray Mabus has detailed a series of efforts the service is taking to prevent such abuses in the future.
Fixed-wing aircraft slated for air-warfare missions rank as the number one aviation and shipbuilding investment over the coming 10 years for U.S. partners and allies in the Asia-Pacific, according to an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) analysis of data provided by Avascent Analytics.
LONDON — The Chief of the U.K. Defense Staff has warned that overspending on equipment is leading to shortages in manpower to train on and use the matériel. In a December speech to the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), Gen. Sir Nicholas Houghton, who became chief of the defense staff in July, said current levels of equipment spending could lead to a “strategically incoherent force structure.”
BRUSSELS — European Union governments have agreed to move forward, albeit slowly, on the joint development of key defense capabilities, including air-to-air refueling, a next-generation UAV, satellite communications and cybersecurity. During a two-day meeting in Brussels Dec. 19-20, the heads of state of the 28-member EU also discussed—but did not approve—joint funding of some military activities, such as those led by France in the Central African Republic.
Honeywell is detecting “modest improvement” in commercial aftermarket sales as 2013 wraps up, giving the company confidence that the stagnation of the last three years could be supplanted by a steeper uptick in demand. The company is projecting 3%-5% organic growth in total 2014 aftermarket sales, driven by a bump in air transport and regional (ATR) flight hours and continued solid demand for business aviation retrofits, modifications, and upgrades (RMU). Honeywell provided the details during its 2014 outlook presentation to analysts Dec. 17.
Kellstrom finished consolidating and segregating its business into commercial and defense units, and it expects the first quarter of 2014 to start showing the results of those efforts, as well as its “leaner and meaner side,” says Roscoe Musselwhite, Kellstrom Materials president. Kellstrom purchased AirLiance Materials in May, which subsequently involved not only consolidating and streamlining its commercial parts distribution business, but also all of the operations functions, such as IT migration and vendor code and invoice harmonization.
Sikorsky has revealed the unmanned Rotor Blown Wing concept it is designing with Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works under Phase 1 of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (Darpa) vertical-takeoff-and-landing experimental aircraft (VTOL X-Plane) program.
