As the U.S. military pulls out of Afghanistan and “resets” for the Pacific theater, will there be an accompanying shift in the Defense Department's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance forces? The year should see the beginning of a shift away from lower-tech systems geared to detect improvised explosive devices and toward future high-tech sensors.
Challenges from archrivals Pakistan and China, and their growing arms capabilities, have forced India into a modernization drive, and its defense budget is expected to touch $50 billion in the next fiscal year. The Indian defense sector has been growing at an unprecedented rate and is now the world's leading weapons importer. A Swedish think tank that monitors global arms sales verifies that India's weapons imports have overtaken China's, which are now in second place, with 6% of global imports, as Beijing continues to build up its domestic arms industry.
Japan's 2013 defense budget faces the biggest drop in percentage terms since 2004, set to contract 1.3% after three consecutive 0.4% reductions since 2010. Japan's security environment, especially around its southernmost islands facing China, is “tougher than ever” according to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, but 20 years of economic stagnation make it increasingly difficult to pay for defense.
Unmanned vehicles able to accompany troops and alleviate their loads have made a debut in Afghanistan, but if autonomous systems are truly to carry the burden they must be able to go wherever the soldiers go. Darpa's Agency's Legged Squad Support System (LS3) program aims to develop a four-legged robot that can carry 400 lb. and follow soldiers over rugged terrain, interacting like a trained animal with its handler. After initial outdoor trials early in 2012, Boston Dynamics is refining its LS3 for a U.S. Marine Corps field exercise in 2014.
Dozens of women are filling senior management positions across aerospace and defense, changing the face of an industry not known for diversity. Another glass ceiling will shatter on Jan. 1, when Marillyn Hewson (right) becomes CEO of Lockheed Martin and Phebe Novakovic fills the top spot at General Dynamics.
In 2013, Russia again plans to increase its defense expenditures. The growth of the defense budget will continue in 2014 and 2015, with the aim of completing the massive rearmament of the forces started a few years ago.
Displays are getting personal. As soldiers join the network they need displays, and today's ruggedized laptops are heavy, power-hungry and breakable. The push is on to field lightweight, flexible displays that can be worn on the wrist or integrated into clothing or protective eyewear. The U.S. Army is testing wrist displays, and the U.S. Air Force kneepad touchscreens, produced by L-3 Display Systems using unbreakable plastic-backed organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology from Universal Displays. These displays are small—only 4.3-in.
It has been called the most significant advance in jet engines since the turbofan: development of variable-cycle “third stream” engines with 25% lower specific fuel consumption than today's fighter powerplants. General Electric and Rolls-Royce will ground-test demonstrator engines in 2013, and GE and Pratt & Whitney are under contract to mature the technology and test new adaptive-fan engine designs in 2016. In addition to the high-pressure core and low-pressure bypass streams of a conventional turbofan, these variable-bypass engines have a third, outer flowpath.
Nothing reveals the political nature of this year's debate over across-the-board budget cuts as much as the dramatic change of discourse in the weeks leading to the deadline for preventing them. After a year of hearings, press conferences and road shows clamoring for a stop to sequestration, lawmakers and the Obama administration are now met with the deadline. Late last week, they appeared to have rationalized missing it.
The bifurcation of the business jet market is expected to continue in 2013, with strong demand for larger and pricier jets and sluggish sales of small and mid-sized aircraft. A Chinese company's failed bid in 2012 to acquire bankrupt Hawker Beechcraft is unlikely to slow Beijing's bid to become a significant player in the market.
While privacy concerns bedevil efforts to integrate unmanned aircraft into U.S. national airspace, police departments across the country are pushing ahead with plans to field small unmanned aircraft systems (SUAS) operating under existing rules. The vehicle of choice appears to be a miniature rotorcraft, providing the ease of operation that comes with vertical-takeoff-and-landing and the ability to hover and stare. Canada's Draganfly Innovations has led development of the public-safety market with its 4.5-lb.
Italy's defense budget is on the upswing again after deep cuts in 2012. However, the defense minister, the retired Adm. Giampaolo Di Paola, has received a preliminary green light for a major restructuring and deep cuts to all three of the armed forces. The plan is subject to future political decisions, but appears to be unavoidable.
Defense budget negotiations in Israel are on ice until after the Jan. 22 elections. However, the costs of Operation Pillar of Defense—aimed at eliminating the rocket threat from Hamas—will complicate an already difficult situation.
The U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system, which has not had a successful intercept since 2008, is expected to return to flight in early 2013 after a two-year hiatus. And the U.S. will continue to roll out its Phased Adaptive Approach to protecting Europe, including construction of the first Aegis shore-launch site in Romania and further flights of the improved SM-3 Block 1B interceptor.
Lockheed Martin delivered 30 F-35 aircraft in 2012, meeting a program goal just in time for its deadline of the New Year. The company had completed turnover of the first 20 of the single-engine, stealthy aircraft, but still had 10 remaining at the beginning of the month. The delivery flow was interrupted this year because of a 10-week machinists strike at the F-35 production plant in Fort Worth.
After its unveiling of the J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters, it is not unimaginable that Beijing could pull off another technological surprise in 2013. Could it up the superpower stakes by testing an unmanned combat air vehicle, an air-launched strike weapon or even a mini-spaceplane? Speculation abounds.
General Electric has confirmed it will purchase Italian aero engine specialist Avio SpA from Cinven, a European private equity firm, and government-owned defense group Finmeccanica for €3.3 billion ($4.36 billion).
In the run-up to November's election, the U.S. aerospace and defense industry and its lobbyists were in favor of any budget proposal that left defense expenditures free to continue growing. Republican candidate Mitt Romney promised to peg defense to 4% of gross domestic product, but his attempt to make defense a key issue gained little traction. As Stimson Institute senior fellow Gordon Adams put it: “This election was not about defense. A very large and expensive lobbying effort to make it about defense failed.”
Can ad hoc design teams collaborating via the Internet produce a better infantry fighting vehicle quicker than traditional industry engineering organizations? Darpa aims to find out when it launches the first of three Fast, Adaptable Next-Generation (FANG) ground-vehicle design challenges in January 2013. Using new model-based design tools, virtual collaboration and foundry-style manufacturing, FANG aims to produce an amphibious combat vehicle in one-fifth the time of a conventional program.
An inflection point is approaching for rotorcraft manufacturers and their customers, civil and military, where they must decide whether to invest in de-veloping and purchasing a step change in capability or continue on a path of incremental improvement. The decision is particularly pressing for the U.S. military, which by opting to repeatedly upgrade its existing airframes has fallen behind the commercial world in helicopter technology. The choice now lies between simply catching up with the commercial market, or boldly leaping ahead.
Advances in rocket engine technology do not come along often, so it was noteworthy in October 2012 when Orbital Technologies flew a sounding rocket powered by its “vortex” engine, which injects fuel and liquid oxygen so the burning mixture does not touch the walls of the combustion chamber, allowing it to be thinner, lighter and cheaper. Oxidizer is injected at an angle that sets up a pair of coaxial vortices. Combustion occurs in the innermost swirl, the outer vortex protecting the chamber walls from the heat of combustion.
Once there were two major producers of military transports that dominated the world stage: the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Today, the U.S. has only two airlifters in production and has ceded the light-transport market to European competitors. The once-mighty Russian industry is making a comeback, but new competitors have emerged in Brazil and, potentially will develop in China.
