Latin America has been viewed by most as one of the most promising airline markets. Impressive growth and huge steps in quality and safety have made the continent the turnaround story in the industry. And 2014 appears set to become a year of further improvement.
The digital revolution first put maintenance data online, saving paper and major hassles. Then laptops brought data to techs, saving walking time to desktops and kiosks. Smartphones, handhelds and tablets are starting to cut weight from techs' bags and shoulders. What's next?
The potential for satellite-based surveillance to transform air traffic management has been recognized for years. Now the countries leading the way with this technology are preparing to show how its promise can be realized in some of the most important airspace on the planet. Automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) systems are being installed and used all over the world. It seems it is no longer a question of if, but when, it will replace radar as the main source of surveillance for ATM purposes.
China Eastern Airlines, already the major Chinese airline with the greatest focus on low-cost operations, is planning to operate a mainland budget subsidiary from Beijing. At the same time, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is stepping up its campaign to promote low-cost airlines, setting aside its long-standing disdain for the potentially destabilizing model.
The entry and rapid success of the Robinson R66 in the light turbine helicopter market has sent shock waves through the industry. The bigger manufacturers were preoccupied with the growing light-twin market, and happy to leave Frank Robinson's hugely successful piston-engined R22 and R44 to dominate the general-aviation market. They had virtually rejected their light singles—many with designs roots in the 1960s and 70s—and all but starved them of investment.
From commercial airline fleet renewal through fighter procurement challenges to industry consolidation in the face of budget pressures, 2014 looks certain to be a pivotal year for aerospace and defense. Here are 12 areas to keep an eye on. 787
Africa •Engine MRO expenditures are projected to be more than $800 million. •The continent's total fleet will decrease by six aircraft. Asia-Pacific •The region—excluding China and India—will generate $1 billion of spending on modifications, about one-fourth of the global modification market. •Excluding China and India, the region's fleet will increase 13%. China •Chinese operators will spend $1 billion on component MRO.
The future is now for airlines strategizing their surveillance system purchases and installations ahead of the FAA's 2020 mandate for automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) equipage. Although six years away, the January 2020 deadline for ADS-B is high on the to-do list for maintenance shop visits even now, especially for smaller operators with large fleets who already know they will have problems complying.
Consumers may be buying the latest electronic goods, but they are certainly not spending as much as they were 10 years ago. That means the air cargo industry, which is being swamped with belly capacity, is being left with a lot of empty space and nothing to fill it.
Analysts tracking the commercial aircraft turbine engine MRO market see a growth period for the industry from 2014 through 2023, although at a percentage rate in the low-to-mid-single digits. According to data generated by Aviation Week analysts, the global value of the engine MRO market for 2014 is estimated at $20.3 billion, based on the in-service engine fleet of 63,000 for that year—including 3,952 new deliveries. Some aviation industry analysts project slightly higher numbers for the same period.
Now that the last of the big three mergers is finally done, the U.S. majors have to make 2014 the year of implementation and integration. American and US Airways, only weeks into their new coexistence, are at the beginning of a journey that—as United Airlines and Continental Airlines have found—can be extremely difficult.
If the rise of the Persian Gulf carriers has been frightening so far for the rest of the industry, competitors should not even look at what is going to happen in 2014. The three big Middle Eastern airlines will have access to significantly improved infrastructure as they continue to grow their fleets.
In an industry used to constant growth—with a few hiccups here and there—Russia will deliver the conclusion of an astonishing story in 2014: 24 years after its previous traffic peak in 1990, the Russian air transport industry is finally reaching similar traffic levels.
FAA is holding off on its plan to require pilots and controllers with a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or more to undergo obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) screening, a move widely welcomed by aviation industry groups last week.
Three more major air traffic management organizations are joining Nav Canada in purchasing stakes in Aireon, a satellite-based surveillance system that has the potential to extend ATM coverage over oceanic airspace.
At Boeing’s request, a judicial panel has agreed to centralize 10 lawsuits related to the July 6 crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 to courts in the San Francisco area. “On the basis of papers filed and hearing sessions held, we find that these ten actions involve common questions of fact, and that centralization in the Northern District of California will serve the convenience of the parties and witnesses, and promote the just and efficient conduct of the litigation,” according to the panel’s decision, published on Dec. 13.
