Aviation Week & Space Technology

Some larger operators are confident in their ability to return a profit during another year of belt-tightening, but mixed results are more likely.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is no longer heir-apparent F/A-18G Growler.

A shift around the globe to stealthy, or stealthier, combat aircraft designs is driving the market for fighters and jet-powered trainers.

As debate over the future of U.S. human spaceflight continues into 2012, NASA is moving to answer one key question: Is it feasible to store propellant in orbit and so reduce the number of heavy-lift launches required for deep-space missions? While for some the question is whether propellant depots can eliminate the need to develop the heavy-lift Space Launch System, NASA sees the two as complementary. But first it needs to understand how to reduce propellant boil-off and transfer cryogenic fluids in orbit.

After a remarkable recovery in 2010, global demand for airfreight stagnated in 2011, and the outlook for 2012 is for a continuation of sluggish growth conditions. Year-over-year cargo traffic volumes showed increases through the first four months of 2011, but turned negative in May, and as a result—when the full-year 2011 results are tallied—they are expected to show a slight decline versus the 2010 level.

Slightly recovering is a good description of the business aviation market. In some sectors, stagnant might be a better description. Amid economic uncertainty, the market continues to limp along. Nevertheless, a certain amount of market optimism is justified. The collapse of the general economy and the world's financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2008 presaged an end to what had been a boom for business jet aircraft. New orders became scarce, customers began deferring deliveries, and order cancellations started taking a serious toll on sales backlogs.

When the FAA finally issued a new crew rest rule for U.S. pilots in December—one that has been decades in the making and could become a model for the rest of the world—something was very different from the proposed rule the agency published in September 2010: The cost.

Air France

Military helicopters have been rolling off manufacturers' assembly lines in increasing numbers in recent years. Build rates will continue to rise in 2012, but beyond that, market trends point to flat and even declining annual production levels over the next several years.

The new year brings new challenges to India's suffering airline industry with signs of worse things to come. Amid the increasing debt crisis, mounting jet fuel costs, soaring losses and an inability to raise fares in a cut-throat market, airlines in India face the daunting task of protecting their air operator permits and convincing regulators that they meet safety standards at the same time as they are cutting costs.

The 21st century has seen a massive surge in procurement of unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Twenty years ago, the anticipated value of this market per year did not exceed $400 million—and that figure included sales of target drones. Today the U.S. fleet has grown tenfold and the Pentagon is spending nearly $4 billion annually on unmanned systems of all types.

The U.S. unmanned aerial system fleet is tenfold what it was two decades ago, and the Pentagon is spending nearly $4 billion annually on UAS of all types. When the U.S. launched the 1991 war against Iraq, the anticipated value of the UAS market per year did not exceed $400 million, including sales of target drones. Barring major new financial crises in Europe and the U.S., unmanned platforms—along with electronic warfare and cyberoperations—are considered to be the technologies destined to survive the defense drawdown.

The heavy fighter engine market continues to be dominated by Pratt & Whitney and General Electric. The production of F100s and F110s remains active for F-15 and F-16 orders, primarily exports; after these fighters end production around 2016-17, the engine OEMs will shift production to modules to support the large world fleet.

Export sales will become increasing important as manufacturers try to sustain production levels built up over recent years. For the U.S., that means securing foreign military sales for Bell, Boeing and Sikorsky helicopters while European manufacturers market armed scout and support rotorcraft to the U.S.

Although space assets play a vital military role on the battlefield, militaries are being forced to balance increased demand for satellite capabilities with tightening budgets. The current drive of governments worldwide to rein in spending will have an effect on military satellite procurement during the next decade.

“It hasn't been splatted by the Internet” is how a friend once described an Ethiopian village she'd visited. Her short sentence reveals the nostalgia for a simpler life felt by many in the developed world who have never experienced it themselves, and a truth about the economic position of the so-called dark continent.

Engine MRO will outpace the total commercial aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul market growth this year, largely because engine events are more expensive and because more powerplants propelling the narrowbody fleet will need overhauls.

Production of military transports is forecast to rise sharply during the next decade, especially in the latter half due mostly to the introduction of the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390.

After booking record orders in 2011, ATR wants to increase revenues by 20% this year.

Engine upgrades are a key element of product-line revamps underway at helicopter manufacturers as they work to stimulate a recovery in a commercial market where new-centerline powerplants for rotorcraft are rare events.

The production of F100s and F110s remains active for F-15 and F-16 orders, primarily exports.

Jan. 31- Feb. 2—MRO Middle East 2012. Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Feb. 14-16— Defense Technology and Affordability Requirements. Arlington, Va. March 7—55th Annual Laureate Awards. Washington. March 13-14—Innovation Supply Chain Showcase. Orlando, Fla. April 3-5—MRO Americas 2012. Dallas. April 3-5—MRO Military Conference & Exhibition. Dallas. April 23-25—NextGen Ahead: Air Transportation Modernization. Washington. May 8-9—Civil Aviation Manufacturing. Charlotte, N.C.

An agreement by Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and New Zealand to become subscribers to the WGS broadband communications network has prompted the U.S. Air Force to exercise an option for Boeing to build a ninth spacecraft (see p. 33). With their $377 million contract, the five nations join Australia, which funded WGS-6 in 2008, as members of the Air Force Wideband team. WGS-9 is the third spacecraft in a follow-on contract series. Boeing was informed in December to proceed with WGS-8.

As the Army prepares for a spring flight demonstration of possible interim replacements for its OH-58D scout helicopter, financial pressure on the Pentagon may mean the service has to make do with the aging Kiowa for years to come, despite forthcoming obsolescence issues. Army aviation officials face a tough decision as they continue to struggle with how to replace the Kiowa warrior fleet following the 2008 collapse of the Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH) program, led by Bell, owing to cost growth.

Confronted by economic uncertainty and a vexing glut of good used aircraft, the market for new business jets remains largely stalled.