Is the U.S. dominance of the large military airlifter market nearing its end? The coming decade should show whether new entrants can force a major change in the balance of power governing the export of military transports. A combination of factors could lead to the shift in market dynamics: the anticipated arrival of new competitors—principally the Airbus Military A400M and Embraer KC-390—growth in overall production numbers and a decline in U.S. spending.
General aviation aircraft manufacturers are expected to deliver 18,000 piston-engine models and 6,000 turboprops valued at $8 billion and $20.5 billion, respectively, between 2011 and 2020. That is encouraging, considering the protracted slump in output. However, the near and midterm outlook is no cause for celebration.
Significant defense orders, strong government subsidies and growing demand for domestically produced commercial aircraft have provided optimism regarding the Russian aircraft industry.
An item in Washington Outlook in the Jan. 16 edition (p. 17) mischaracterized the position of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on a union matter in the FAA reauthorization bill. The House version of the bill calls for reverting to the rules for how airline and railroad employees form unions that had been in existence for 75 years until the National Mediation Board changed them in 2010. The chamber supports the House bill's provision to reverse the recent rule change.
Michael J. McCord, the U.S. Defense Department's comptroller, warns of dire consequences if more than $1 trillion in approved cuts to military spending over 10 years are allowed to take effect. The result would be the lowest number of ships since World War I, the smallest ground force since 1940 and the smallest Air Force ever, he recently told investors.
Geneva-based PrivatAir has become the 11th customer for Bombardier's CSeries regional jet with a firm order for five CS100s and options for five more. The order raises Bombardier's orderbook for the 110-130-seat jet to 138.
With laser jammers protecting helicopters from man-portable missile attacks in Afghanistan, attention has shifted to the age-old threat posed by small-arms fire—and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), which brought down two Boeing Chinooks in August 2011 with the loss of 38 lives. Hostile fire indication (HFI) is the new priority, and the first U.S. Army Boeing Apaches fitted with Radiance Technologies' WeaponWatch ground fire acquisition system will deploy this year.
The government may talk about conducting “full and open” competitions for military goods and services, but from 2007-10, the Pentagon sole-sourced contracts 41% of the time, spending $606.3 billion on such contracts. A Government Accountability Office report explains that the practice of ditching competitions happens most often because only “one responsible source” exists to meet the agency's requirements.
Using a manufacturing technique more akin to fabric weaving than traditional composite layup, Snecma has led development of a lightweight engine fan case using the same three-dimensional, woven, resin transfer molded (RTM) fabrication process developed for fan blades. Both the RTM fan and case will be featured in CFM International's Leap engine family for the Airbus A320NEO, Boeing 737 MAX and Comac C919 airliners. The manufacturing technique increases stiffness in smaller-scale structures while maintaining the weight savings associated with composites.
Few times in aerospace history can have been as difficult for forecasters as recent months. Things are changing, that is certain, but there are so many conflicting signs that the direction of the industry is almost impossible to project. Debt crises, oil prices, climate change, competition for resources and many other factors inject unprecedented unpredictability into the equation.
Douglas Royce/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
Manufacturers of military fixed-wing trainers are forecast to produce 1,675 aircraft worth $21 billion during the next decade. Of those, 984 will be jet-powered and will be worth $15.3 billion. Annual production of military trainers is projected to gradually drop to 126 aircraft in 2016 from about 200 in 2011. Production will begin to rise again in 2017, reaching about 160 aircraft by 2020.
William N. Ostrove/Forecast International/www.forecastinternational.com
As market demand for high-definition video and broadband Internet service grows, so too does the need for technologies to form the backbone of global networks.
Whether the threat is from insurgents, pirates, drug smugglers or illegal immigrants, whether the resources requiring protection are in the ocean or the jungle, the need for surveillance is increasing. This is driving demand for special-mission aircraft—manned and unmanned—the sensors to equip them and systems to analyze and disseminate the intelligence collected.
Driven by growth in passenger and cargo traffic, the global airline industry returned to profitability in 2010 after two years of financial losses. As a direct result, large turbine engine manufacturers have seen rebounding sales and full order books for new and existing engines.
Launch of the Intelsat-22 communications satellite early in 2012, carrying a UHF payload for the Australian Defense Force, will confirm for many that a new market—hosting government payloads on commercial satellites—is becoming a reality, offering cheaper access to space. Australia will save $150 million over a dedicated military satellite. Successful operation of a new wide-field-of-view staring sensor—the U.S. Air Force's Commercially Hosted Infrared Payload (Chirp) on the SES-2 communications satellite launched in September—has also boosted the sector.
“Aerospace 2012” is what we call this edition of Aviation Week & Space Technology, and what we seek to offer is not just a ready reference with a wealth of data but nothing less than a guide to the future for the sectors we serve. While we think our crystal ball is better than most, drawing an accurate picture of what may lie ahead for industry, even in the short term, is not exactly a science. As baseball's Yogi Berra is said to have quipped, “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
The majority of the 161 unclassified milsats forecast for production in the next decade will go into service in the near term with production tapering in the outyears.
With crude oil beginning the year above $110 a barrel, and little prospect of aviation fuel prices coming down anytime soon, the imperative to find alternative sources to ensure price competition and supply security remains strong. But as 2012 progresses, industry is looking to governments to capitalize on the rapid technical progress made in approving bio-derived jet fuels by providing the funding support necessary to scale production up to commercial quantities and bring prices down to competitive levels.
The air cargo market appeared to be on the way to sustained growth early in 2011, but in May it started shrinking. As a result, full-year results should show a slight decline versus the 2010 level. This is not a good start for 2012, and indicates that businesses' confidence in the economy is weak.
Unmanned aircraft systems are moving into new operating niches as the technology matures. One result is an increase in demand for vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) air vehicles able to operate from the decks of ships at sea or away from congested runways on land. In 2011, U.S. Navy Northrop Grumman MQ-8B Fire Scout VTOL UAS were deployed to land bases in Afghanistan to provide surveillance in support of the U.S. Army. Lockheed Martin/Kaman K-Max unmanned helicopters are now conducting cargo resupply missions to remote U.S. Marine Corps outposts in Afghanistan.
More than five years after its first flight, Lockheed Martin's Joint Strike Fighter has been flown at night for the first time. The F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing development aircraft AF-6 on Jan. 18 conducted a series of approaches to Edwards AFB, Calif., in twilight and darkness. Night refueling and formation tests are planned for this year as the program targets completion of 1,001 flights and 7,837 test points in 2012, a slight increase over 2011's 972 flights.
If the Pentagon's top tester gave letter grades for the reliability of weapons, only the Navy would receive a passing grade—a D-minus. Only 63% of Navy programs and 55% of Army programs cleared military reliability standards. At the bottom of the class is the Air Force. Just 27% of its programs met the service's goals. Michael Gilmore, the director of operational test and evaluation, found that programs including the Small Diameter Bomb, MQ-9 Reaper, Global Hawk and C-27J Joint Cargo Aircraft all fell short in his annual report on the progress of weapon programs.
