In the run-up to November's election, the U.S. aerospace and defense industry and its lobbyists were in favor of any budget proposal that left defense expenditures free to continue growing. Republican candidate Mitt Romney promised to peg defense to 4% of gross domestic product, but his attempt to make defense a key issue gained little traction. As Stimson Institute senior fellow Gordon Adams put it: “This election was not about defense. A very large and expensive lobbying effort to make it about defense failed.”
In the drive to reduce aircraft fuel consumption and emissions, the traditional jet-fuel burning auxiliary power unit (APU) is being targeted for replacement by a clean-operating fuel cell, which only emits water vapor. In 2012, Boeing flew a regenerative fuel cell in its 737 EcoDemonstrator. Developed by Japan's IHI Aerospace, the fuel cell generated electricity and was “recharged” by the engines, surplus power being used to split water into oxygen and hydrogen, with the hydrogen then used in the fuel cell.
India's defense minister says the indigenously developed Kaveri jet engine, deemed unsuitable to power the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft for which it was designed, can power the Unmanned Strike Air Vehicle (USAV) that is expected to be ready for entry into service around 2020. Under development since 1989 by India's Gas Turbine Research Establishment, the Kaveri is well short of its afterburning thrust goal of 18,200 lb. But its unreheated thrust is close to the 11,500-lb. target and sufficient to power the USAV.
Asia-Pacific airlines are focused on tapping into the strong demand growth projected for their region. But the vast potential of these markets means competition is fierce, and while strategies vary, the common theme is that bold moves are considered necessary for airlines to prosper. China is still viewed as the major prize, although opportunities abound elsewhere in Asia. Even the more mature Pacific-Rim airline markets such as Japan and Australia offer growth prospects.
Many have wondered whether Air Berlin could survive the slow winter season without another capital injection and/or loan from its biggest shareholder, Etihad Airways. After all, the airline's reserves had been shrinking and another short-term restructuring program, Turbine 2013, was announced.
Once there were two major producers of military transports that dominated the world stage: the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Today, the U.S. has only two airlifters in production and has ceded the light-transport market to European competitors. The once-mighty Russian industry is making a comeback, but new competitors have emerged in Brazil and, potentially will develop in China.
Unmanned vessels are about to take a leap in capability, on the surface and beneath. The desire for persistent sensing is driving the need to develop fully autonomous, long-duration vehicles that can covertly patrol coastal waters or overtly follow submerged submarines. The U.S. Office of Naval Research plans to build prototypes of the Large-Displacement Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (LDUUV) to address the autonomy, sensing and energy challenges of a vessel able to operate independently for months.
Australia's defense ministry has removed the Wedgetail Boeing 737-based airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) program from its Projects of Concern list following delivery of all six aircraft and achievement of initial operational capability in November. The Airbus A330-based KC-30B multirole tanker/transport, NHIndustries MRH90 multi-role helicopter and an electronic support measures upgrade for the Lockheed AP-3C maritime-patrol aircraft remain on the updated watch list.
The Xian Y-20 military transport has begun ground tests. The four-engine military airlifter is about the size of the Russian Ilyushin Il-76, falling between the Airbus Military A400M and Boeing C-17 in size. The first aircraft appears to be powered by imported Saturn D-30KP engines, as fitted to the Il-76, but production aircraft are expected to have Chinese-developed high-bypass-ratio engines.
North Korea's successful launch of a satellite in December after 14 years of attempts put the hermit kingdom one step closer toward deploying an intercontinental ballistic missile. And Iran's nuclear weapons program—and the threat of an Israeli attack to cripple it—will keep tensions simmering in the Middle East.
When I began writing this column eight years ago, airlines were reeling as oil prices soared above $50 a barrel. Lockheed Martin was hoping to ramp up production of the Joint Strike Fighter in 2009, and Wall Street analysts were beginning to question whether a run-up in defense stocks had much steam left. Airbus was preparing to launch development of the A350 in response to Boeing's 7E7 (now 787), and the business jet market was embarking on a sales surge that would end in a spectacular crash.
Under fierce pressure to cut costs, even major carriers are turning to independent companies to handle line maintenance at stations where an airline's volume makes in-house support uneconomic. Outsourcing opportunities can involve start-up carriers; or, airlines that simply do not have enough flights at particular airports to justify deploying maintenance staff and infrastructure.
Graham Warwick (Washington), Larry Dickerson (Forecast International)
Unmanned-aircraft manufacturers are approaching a crossroads. The wars that fueled the market's dramatic growth are winding down. International demand is growing but bringing with it increased competition. And the civil market is slow to start, and initially focused on small systems that cannot match the military business in sales value.
Challenges from archrivals Pakistan and China, and their growing arms capabilities, have forced India into a modernization drive, and its defense budget is expected to touch $50 billion in the next fiscal year. The Indian defense sector has been growing at an unprecedented rate and is now the world's leading weapons importer. A Swedish think tank that monitors global arms sales verifies that India's weapons imports have overtaken China's, which are now in second place, with 6% of global imports, as Beijing continues to build up its domestic arms industry.
In 2013, Russia again plans to increase its defense expenditures. The growth of the defense budget will continue in 2014 and 2015, with the aim of completing the massive rearmament of the forces started a few years ago.
The aviation industry understands the concept of big data and the need to best employ it. A couple of factors are driving what, and how, the aviation industry will deal with the terabytes, petabytes and exabytes of data that are too hard to comprehend.
The bifurcation of the business jet market is expected to continue in 2013, with strong demand for larger and pricier jets and sluggish sales of small and mid-sized aircraft. A Chinese company's failed bid in 2012 to acquire bankrupt Hawker Beechcraft is unlikely to slow Beijing's bid to become a significant player in the market.
Last week, I received a note from a former colleague congratulating me on my appointment as the new editor-in-chief of Aviation Week & Space Technology, effective Jan. 1. “As you well know, AW&ST is a force far beyond a normal magazine,” he wrote. “Enjoy the adventures to come and lead 'em to scoop the competition.”
Lockheed Martin delivered 30 F-35 aircraft in 2012, meeting a program goal just in time for its deadline of the New Year. The company had completed turnover of the first 20 of the single-engine, stealthy aircraft, but still had 10 remaining at the beginning of the month. The delivery flow was interrupted this year because of a 10-week machinists strike at the F-35 production plant in Fort Worth.
