Germany plans a 2013 defense budget of about €33.3 billion ($43.5 billion), a €1.4-billion increase from 2012. Military pay raises will account for most of this increase. The 2013 budget includes funding for these raises, to make it more attractive to serve in the all-volunteer Bundeswehr. Personnel strength will be reduced to 196,200 soldiers in 2013, on the way to a planned maximum of 185,000. These cuts are expected to reduce the defense budget to €33 billion in 2014, and to €32.5 billion in 2015 and again in 2016.
Which defense and space technologies will make the headlines in 2013? Advances in propulsion that cut costs, or robotic breakthroughs that enable new missions?
Pratt & Whitney says it booked nearly 3,000 orders and options for its geared turbofan engine series in 2012. The engine is the sole powerplant for the Bombardier CSeries and Mitsubishi Regional Jet and is an option on the Airbus A320NEO and Irkut MC-21. At year-end, the engine had completed 12,400 cycles and 4,200 hr. of evaluation, including 460 flight-test hours.
Weeks after North Korea's successful rocket launch, South Korea may take steps to beef up its surveillance capabilities. On Dec. 21, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency formally notified Congress that South Korea has proposed buying four RQ-4 Block-30 Global Hawks for up to $1.2 billion. The sale of Northrop Grumman's high-altitude, long-endurance UAV would help South Korea assume the lead in intelligence gathering as the U.S. plans to dissolve the Combined Forces Command in 2015, notes the agency.
NATO has extended the Strategic Airlift Interim Solution (Salis) through to the end of 2014. The move sees the continued use of Antonov An-124s owned by Ukrainian and Russian cargo airlines, Antonov Design Bureau and Volga-Dnepr to carry heavy military equipment on behalf of partner nations involved in Salis. The program, first signed in January 2006, provides for two An-124s on full-time charter, two more on six days' notice and another two on nine days' readiness.
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The Pentagon continues to set the standard for research and development spending on missile defense, though purchases from allies are increasingly setting the production pace for regional defense systems. This trend is likely to continue in 2013, as Iran threatens Israel and other U.S. allies in the region.
Could optionally piloted vehicles (OPV) be the next wave in cost-effective special-mission aircraft, able to fly in civil airspace with pilot and sensor operator on board but also capable of flying unmanned for far longer duration at lower cost than the Beechcraft King Airs so favored today? Aurora Flight Sciences and Northrop Grumman would answer yes. Aurora is developing the $4.5 million Centaur OPV, and its first buyer is Switzerland's Arma-suisse, which will use it as a flying testbed for unmanned-aircraft airspace integration.
Japan's 2013 defense budget faces the biggest drop in percentage terms since 2004, set to contract 1.3% after three consecutive 0.4% reductions since 2010. Japan's security environment, especially around its southernmost islands facing China, is “tougher than ever” according to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, but 20 years of economic stagnation make it increasingly difficult to pay for defense.
AirAsia has received the first Airbus A320 equipped with the fuel-saving winglets that Airbus markets as “sharklets.” The largest low-cost carrier in Southeast Asia, AirAsia also is Airbus's biggest customer for A320s. The 2.4-meter-tall (8-ft.) sharklets are an option on current A320s and will be standard on the A320NEO family.
Displays are getting personal. As soldiers join the network they need displays, and today's ruggedized laptops are heavy, power-hungry and breakable. The push is on to field lightweight, flexible displays that can be worn on the wrist or integrated into clothing or protective eyewear. The U.S. Army is testing wrist displays, and the U.S. Air Force kneepad touchscreens, produced by L-3 Display Systems using unbreakable plastic-backed organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology from Universal Displays. These displays are small—only 4.3-in.
Saab has signed a €15.5 million ($20.5 million) framework agreement with Piaggio Aero industries to integrate surveillance systems on a maritime-patrol derivative of the P.180 Avanti II twin-turboprop business aircraft. Piaggio announced in July it had received a contract to develop the Avanti-based Multirole Patrol Aircraft (MPA) from Abu Dhabi Autonomous Systems Investments, which manages programs for the United Arab Emirates armed forces. The contract includes two prototypes of the initial maritime-patrol version, with first flight scheduled for 2014.
After a tough year for most of the airfreight business in 2012, the providers have more of the same to look forward to in 2013. But that does not mean the industry will be stagnant, as its players will be adjusting to short- and long-term changes in the business.
While privacy concerns bedevil efforts to integrate unmanned aircraft into U.S. national airspace, police departments across the country are pushing ahead with plans to field small unmanned aircraft systems (SUAS) operating under existing rules. The vehicle of choice appears to be a miniature rotorcraft, providing the ease of operation that comes with vertical-takeoff-and-landing and the ability to hover and stare. Canada's Draganfly Innovations has led development of the public-safety market with its 4.5-lb.
After its unveiling of the J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters, it is not unimaginable that Beijing could pull off another technological surprise in 2013. Could it up the superpower stakes by testing an unmanned combat air vehicle, an air-launched strike weapon or even a mini-spaceplane? Speculation abounds.
An inflection point is approaching for rotorcraft manufacturers and their customers, civil and military, where they must decide whether to invest in de-veloping and purchasing a step change in capability or continue on a path of incremental improvement. The decision is particularly pressing for the U.S. military, which by opting to repeatedly upgrade its existing airframes has fallen behind the commercial world in helicopter technology. The choice now lies between simply catching up with the commercial market, or boldly leaping ahead.
A “wait-and-see” banner flies over France's 2013 defense budget, which, like all others for EU defense ministries', has to contract to meet the government's goal of bringing the country's public debt down to 3% of GDP from the current 5.2%.
Routine aircraft-like spaceflight operations could begin in 2013, with Virgin Galactic and XCOR Aerospace flying to the edge of atmosphere, but fully reusable air-breathing space access remains a dream. A crucial step forward could be tests of an air-breathing rocket engine component now underway in the U.K.
Andrew Compart (Washington), Darren Shannon (Washington), Madhu Unnikrishnan (Washington), Christine Grimaldi (Washington)
In North America, 2013 is shaping up to be another year of tests, transitions, challenges and uncertainties for commercial aviation, even after three big airline mergers in the U.S. in recent years, the bankruptcy of a major Mexican carrier and financial troubles at Canada's biggest airline. But a lot of the questions could finally be settled by the end of the year.
